Vienna (OTS) – The global economy is currently being shaped by the turbulence in the US banking sector, tight monetary policy and the unresolved energy crisis in Europe. The current forecast from credit insurer Acredia and Allianz Trade expects slower growth in the USA, while the economy in the euro zone stagnates. Only China seems to be growing. A weak plus of 0.5 percent is forecast for Austria for 2023, but the signals from the economy give hope for higher growth.
The ongoing uncertainty regarding gas supplies and high electricity and food prices in Europe have had a lasting impact on consumer confidence. At the same time, rising interest rates and restrictive lending are having a negative impact on investments. The consequences are a weakening of global economic momentum to an expected +2.2 percent for 2023, followed by a slight recovery to +2.3 percent in 2024. Acredia, Austria’s largest credit insurer, and Allianz Trade assume this in a current forecast. “In particular, the marathon in the turnaround in interest rates is increasingly burdening the economy,” says Gudrun Meierschitz, CEO of Acredia. “The prospects for the US and the euro zone are much bleaker than for China.”
Different development in the USA, euro zone and China
The USA is currently in recession, but the economic situation should improve over the course of the year. Economic growth is on the wane and is expected to slow from 2.1 percent in 2022 to 1.1 percent in 2023 and 0.4 percent in 2024. Residential construction and the manufacturing sector in particular are struggling with high financing costs.
The growth momentum is also stagnating in the euro zone, as the fiscal policy stimuli are slowly being scaled back by the states. Although the supply chain problem is slowly easing, high inflation, the tight financing environment and weak consumer sentiment remain challenging for companies. The growth rate is therefore expected to be just +0.3 percent this year, followed by +0.9 percent next year.
The picture in the Asia-Pacific region is different. Driven by the rapid reopening in China, the economy should pick up to +4.1 percent and accelerate slightly to +4.3 percent in 2024. Pressure on emerging markets will continue to increase due to rising internal and external imbalances, especially for commodity importers.
Austria: On the upswing despite the cautious forecast
In Austria, everything is currently pointing to restrained growth of 0.5 percent in 2023 and 0.4 percent in 2024. However, according to Meierschitz, the forecast might improve over the course of the year: “We are getting positive signals from the domestic economy and inflation is slowly coming down. Energy prices also appear to have peaked.
Companies are particularly worried regarding full warehouses. They tie up capital and reduce margins due to rising financing costs. The issue of financing remains explosive with every rate hike that the leading banks take.
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The full study in English can be found here (PDF)
Photo for download: Gudrun Meierschitz, Member of the Board of Acredia Versicherung AG
About the Acredia Group
Acredia is Austria’s leading credit insurer and protects outstanding receivables at home and abroad with a total value of almost 33 billion euros. Acredia is a subsidiary of Oesterreichische Kontrollbank AG and Allianz Trade, the world market leader in credit insurance. In 2022, the Acredia Group had a total turnover of 97.6 million euros. As part of the United Nations Global Compact, Acredia has voluntarily committed to aligning its strategy and business activities with the universal principles of human rights, labour, the environment and anti-corruption and to taking measures to advance social goals. acredia.at
Questions & contact:
Sabine Stepanek, press contact for Acredia Versicherung AG
Tel.: +43 (0)5 01 02-2151
E-Mail: sabine.stepanek@acredia.at
Susanne Wegscheider, agency com_unit
Mobil: +43 664 280 16 18
Email: susanne.wegscheider@comunit.at
