According to data available to “ET” on Sunday, prices in most food categories fell in July. The biggest drop was recorded in sugar (-19%), flour and fruit (-9%), as well as evaporated milk and other edible oils (-8.5%), except olive oil. Followed by frozen seafood with a price reduction of 6.5%, baby food (-3%), fresh milk, frozen fish, margarines and frozen vegetables with -2.5% and then rice, cheeses and ice creams with -2%. The prices of pasta (-1.5%) and eggs (-1%) decreased marginally.
On the contrary, the biggest price increases were recorded in July in olive oil (+57%), chocolates and cocoa (+17%), juices (+15%) and tea (+10%). Single-digit, but equally significant, price increases were in fresh fish (+8%), breakfast cereals (+7%) and vegetables (+3.5%).
Market representatives report that the products showing increased prices are related to the climate crisis, which has affected their production, but also to international prices, as some of them are stock market products.
Estimates for September
New price appreciations are, however, also expected in September in these products, according to market estimates, as the rally in international prices continues.
Indicatively, the price of cocoa, despite the fact that it is much lower than the historical record of April that had reached 12,261 dollars per ton, at 9,500 dollars, on an annual basis has jumped by 187.5%. Indicatively, last year in August its price was 3,300 dollars. The reason for the explosive increase in prices is the weather conditions in the major producing countries of Africa.
The low quantities of cocoa and the price increase have already caused a serious blow to chocolate manufacturers, who have already increased the prices of their products and are expected to proceed with further price increases.
“Prices on chocolate products have risen by almost 20% compared to last year and we estimate that the increases will continue. We hope, however, at a slower pace”, he emphasizes to “ET”. of Sunday’s top executive of the organized food retail trade.
The coffee
Price increases of 15% to 20% are also announced by coffee processing and trading companies, as a result of the drought affecting Vietnam, but also the weather conditions in Brazil. As he recently stated in “ET” on Sunday, the president of the Hellenic Coffee Association, Anastasios Yagoglou, “Vietnam’s announcement that this year’s harvest will be reduced by at least 5 million bags created disruption in the international markets and led to price increases”, pointing out that although the climate problem change exists, but it is also a very good excuse for producers to raise prices.
At an all-time high in April, the market price of the Arabica variety reached 248 cents per pound, showing a 31.6% increase since the beginning of the year. Accordingly, the Robusta variety is trading on the London Stock Exchange at $462 a ton, with its price increasing by 79.5% compared to last year.
Orange juice
The market also expects new appreciations in orange juice, as, according to estimates, the world’s largest exporter, Brazil, will have the lowest production in the last 36 years this year. The drought affecting the country and the emergence of diseases in orange groves are expected to significantly limit the production of orange juice to 232.4 million cases from 288.2 million the previous year. The reduction in supply will also affect prices of the product, since the country accounts for about 70% of total orange exports.
“Already the prices of juices have almost doubled, given that last year Brazil had a decrease of around 60%-65% of its production and Florida’s production also decreased, while this year’s production is estimated to be quite smaller”, he points out to “ET” of Sunday industry representative.
On the shelves of Greek supermarkets, the price of orange juice has increased in the last two years by 39.2% from 1.2 euros to 1.67 euros per liter in May and to 2.02 euros now.
As for the rest of the food, it is estimated that the de-escalation of the prices on the shelves will continue, especially if the Ministry of Development accepts the proposal of the supermarkets for a measure corresponding to the voluntary reduction of the prices of the products by a percentage of at least 5% and for a period of at least six months.
PRODUCTION ISSUE
Uncertainty about olive oil
There are conflicting messages from the market about the course of inflation-fueling olive oil prices during the new olive growing season. On the one hand, producers are lowering the bar for the quantities that Greece will produce and, on the other hand, processors are optimistic seeing an increase in both domestic and Spanish production.
Early estimates call for an increase in production in Spain from 750,000 to 1.2 million tonnes, while forecasts for Greece are premature as producers wait to see if there will be rain until mid-September to help crops . In any case, Greek production is expected to move from 160,000 to 200,000 tons, from 140,000 tons in the period 2023-2024.
According to olive oil processors, if the positive scenario of 200,000 tons is confirmed, the price will drop to 8-9 euros per liter from the current 12-13 euros. However, according to producers, if production moves to 160,000 tons, its price will remain at today’s high levels.
TABLE: CHANGES IN FOOD PRICES IN JULY
| PRODUCTS | ANNUAL PRICE CHANGE |
| Olive oil | +57% |
| Cocoa-Chocolates | +17% |
| Fruit juices | +15% |
| Tea | +10% |
| Fresh fish | +8% |
| Cereal for breakfast | +7% |
| Vegetables | +3,5% |
| Sugar | -19% |
| Fruits | -9% |
| Flour | -9% |
| Evaporated milk | -8,5% |
| Other edible oils | -8,5% |
| Frozen seafood | -6,5% |
| Baby food | -3% |
| Frozen fish | -2,5% |
| Fresh milk | -2,5% |
| Margarines | -2,5% |
| Frozen vegetables | -2,5% |
| Rice | -2% |
| Cheeses | -2% |
| Ice creams | -2% |
| Eggs | -1% |
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