Officials in Kiev are warning that the Kremlin has massed large forces on the Russia-Ukraine border that might launch an offensive on the February 24 anniversary of the Moscow invasion.
As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine approaches its one-year anniversary, Kyiv has issued an urgent warning that Ukrainian intelligence says Vladimir Putin is preparing for another large-scale offensive.
“We have to understand that the possibility of another offensive exists until we defeat Russia.” – said Yuri Sak, a senior official of the Ministry of Defense.
Russia can start the offensive with 500,000 soldiers
Western officials and analysts have long expected a spring offensive, and the Kremlin is likely eager to seize the initiative following a harsh winter marked by months of battlefield setbacks and domestic criticism.
Speaking to French media on Wednesday, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznykov said Russia has 500,000 troops ready for an attack in the coming weeks, almost double the number Putin officially mobilized in September.
“They officially announced 300,000 people, but we see the troops at the border, and according to our recordings, it is much more than that.” Reznikov said.
Ukraine’s defense minister, who was in Paris to ask the French government for weapons, said Russia would likely attack from the east or south.
In the east, Ukrainian commanders face a difficult decision whether to withdraw Bakhmut from their city, or to hold their positions despite huge losses and the growing threat of encirclement in a desperate struggle that became not only strategic, but also symbolic.
In the south, Russian forces are positioned on the east bank of the Dnipro River and are within firing range of the key city of Kherson. Kherson was the very first major city to fall in the first days of the war, but the Russian troops were forced to retreat in November to more defensible positions above the river.
According to Lavrov, they will make sure that February 24 is not only regarding the anti-Russian demonstrations
Andriy Yermak, Zelenskyi’s chief of staff, said Thursday that he had informed Jake Sullivan, the US national security adviser, and General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, regarding the threat of another offensive.
“There was an exchange of ideas regarding possible moves by the enemy in the near future.” Jermak announced on Twitter.
Of course, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov did not talk regarding a possible offensive launched on the day of the war, but he said that on February 24, you will not only hear regarding “anti-Russian” demonstrations.
“Our diplomats are doing their best to ensure that on the anniversary of the special military operation at the end of February, not only the demonstrations and commemorations planned in New York and elsewhere capture the attention of the international community.” he said on Thursday.
Life is back to normal in Kyiv
There is one consensus among Western analysts regarding the impending Russian attack: it does not seem likely that the Russians will attack from Belarus and make another attempt to take Kyiv. And although Kiev is still regularly targeted by Russian missiles, more and more air defense systems are being installed in the Ukrainian capital, allowing for more effective defenses. Despite this, the impact of the war can be felt in Kiev, as the power supply continues to be interrupted in many places, as the Russian army targets the electrical grid.
But the tension is not comparable to the situation 11 months ago, when Russian forces were already on the outskirts of the city and it seemed that all of Kiev was regarding to be taken. Everything is now back to normal, restaurants have since opened and supermarket shelves are full.
Recently, Nazir Vilan, a 20-year-old veterinary student, visited Kyiv to visit his girlfriend. Vilan said he was worried regarding another Russian offensive, but not in Kiev. And despite the great cold and the looming conflict, he believes that Ukraine can defeat Russia.
“This country is very beautiful. This is the most beautiful country, even during the war.” – He told.