The National Institute of Statistics (INE) today released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) according to which, monthly inflation in February was 0.14%, with an acceleration in the general increase in prices of 0.11% compared to January last, when it was 0.03%. Meanwhile, the accumulated inflation was 0.17% and the interannual inflation (from February 2023 to the same month of 2024) was 3.3%, lower than the 3.81% of last January.
The general indicator is still lower than the 4.18% reported in December 2023, so it is considered that the prices of goods and services in the economy do not register strong increases and remain under control.
Regarding the Basic Urban Food Basket (CBAU) and its acquisition cost per capita (per person) -according to the new methodology applied this year- is Q840.29, while the Basic Rural Food Basket (CBAR) was quantified in Q647.79, so that figure must be multiplied by the number of household members to obtain the monthly food cost.
Finally, the CPI indicates that the acquisition cost of the Expanded Urban Basket (CAU) per capita monthly as of February 2024 was Q2 thousand 33.51 and of the Expanded Rural Basket (CAR) was Q1 thousand 276.14.
For these calculations, the results of the National Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2022-2023 are used.
The main incidents
According to the INE, the products and services that make up the transportation, restaurants and clothing spending divisions pressured prices upwards, but contrary to this, the food division, which has greater weight in the price structure of the Guatemalan economy contracted in February, which allowed a drop in inflation, as well as the control of this variable.
In the transportation division (0.15% in February), gasoline had a positive impact – increase – of 0.14%, while onion rose 0.05%, fresh beef 0.01%, firewood 0.01% and diesel, 0.01 %.
Regarding the food division (-0.05%), fresh tomatoes fell -0.05%, chicken eggs -0.05%, corn -0.03%, fresh chicken meat -0.03% and electricity consumption – 0.03%.
Banguat speaks
According to statistical history, inflation was between 2.87% and 2.98% in January and February 2022 and from there the upward trend began that continued until February 2023 when it stood at 9.92%, which in turn generated the reaction of the monetary policy instruments for the control of the variable, by the central bank.
The authorities of the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) provided an explanation on the issue, indicating that the monthly inflation of 0.14% is one of the lowest observed in the last four years. For its part, the inflation rate of 3.3% is the lowest in the last year, which is influenced by the fact that month-on-month inflation has been low.
Álvaro González Ricci, president of the institution, added that the basis of comparison also had to do with it, given that in February 2023 the inflation rate was “exceptionally high” (9.92%).
“It is expected to close the year at the goal of 4% plus/minus 1 percentage point of inflation”
In qualitative terms, he stated that the two factors that most influence the decrease in observed inflation is the slowdown in the costs of imports and the effects of the increases authorized by the Monetary Board to the leading interest rate of the Monetary Policy that in the January revision remained at 5%.
When asked regarding the inflation trend in the short term, he assured that it is expected to close the year at the goal of 4% plus/minus 1 percentage point.
By region
On the other hand, although the national average inflation was 3.3%, the classifier by region shows that the inflation registered was much higher in certain territories.
For example, in region IV -Jutiapa and Jalapa- the indicator was 4.86%; in region VIII -Petén- 4.39%; and region VI -Quetzaltenango, Retalhuleu, San Marcos, Suchitepéquez, Sololá and Totonicapán- was 4.12%. Region III -Chiquimula and Izabal- was the one with the lowest inflation with 2.37%.
“The INE lost objectivity”
Trade unionist Rigoberto Dueñas said that the INE has lost its sense of being and is no longer a serious institution, since information is hidden and what it discloses does not reflect the economic reality of workers and citizens.
In his opinion, the INE has lost its previous line of work and “now the realities of the country are distorted, since a series of situations such as true inflation and poverty are hidden.”
The union member recalled that every day workers complain regarding the increase in the price of the main consumer goods in homes and the loss of the purchasing value of the currency, which is almost not reflected in official reports.
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