In Guatemala, an inflation rate of 3.82% was recorded last January, while monthly inflation was 0.03%, as was the accumulated inflation, calculated by the National Institute of Statistics (INE) through a Consumer Price Index ( CPI) that takes December 2023 as the base or reference date.
According to the report released yesterday, on this occasion the information was presented on February 15, since the basket of goods and services representative of average household consumption was updated.
This is the first report that the INE presents during the administration of President Bernardo Arévalo and the new authorities of the Ministry of Economy, led by Adriana Gabriela García.
Cost per person and in two areas
The new calculation of the cost of the Basic Food Basket and the Expanded Basket was also announced, which as of last month is carried out per capita (per person) and in urban and rural areas.
The current management authorities of the INE stated in December 2023 that from now on the number of grams and their acquisition cost will be determined for each member of the household. For the CBAU, 66 products are taken into account, while for the CBAR there are 60; by quantifying the suggested grams for an average person and covering the energy requirement of 2,052 calories for urban people and 2,172 for rural people.
Thus, in the case of the Basic Urban Food Basket (CBAU), the per capita cost was Q846.30 and for the Basic Rural Food Basket (CBAR) it was Q654.30. Regarding the Expanded Urban Basket (CAU), the monthly per capita cost for January was Q2 thousand 48.66 and for the Expanded Rural Basket (CAR) it was Q1 thousand 287.49. “In its calculation, the percentage of food consumption has been updated to 41.31% for the CAU, and 50.82% for the CAR, a result of the National Survey of Household Income and Expenses 2022-2023.”
To exemplify, according to the new calculation, in January the acquisition cost of the CBAU was Q4,231.15 for a family of 5 people and the CBAR was Q3,271.50; while the purchase cost of the CAU was Q10,243.30 for a family unit of that size and that of the CAR was Q6,437.45.
Criticism begins
Both Fredy Gómez, director of the Cardinal firm and former INE official, and Óscar Erasmo Velásquez, former vice minister of Economy, criticized the official publication, although they clarified that it is the first sample and is a pilot test, it should be followed up accordingly. with the change in methodology.
Gómez believes that this should be evaluated and it doesn’t make much sense. For example, by taking the previous basket and the current basket, it can be determined that the consumption weight of corn fell -32%, and in five years, consumption cannot fall; and as for beans, their consumption in grams decreased by 51%, and in “any assumption, these foods have not stopped being consumed. The main problem is products that have much higher prices.”
That is to say, according to the specialist, by expanding from 34 products – the basket of before – to 66 products – which is the basket of now -, grams of products that have high prices were sacrificed and logically, the cost was lower. “If the basket had been evaluated at market prices with the previous grams, the basket would have been more expensive,” he pointed out.
This means that when reducing the grams in other products, and it is proven that they were reduced in corn and beans, the nutritional evaluation must also be done, he stressed.
“It must be determined what are the ideal grams for a person to live healthily”
Velásquez assured that it is a pilot project, but that it is not due to the conditions presented by the different communities, particularly in the rural area, and one of the situations that he regretted is that the methodology used is not transferred, in order to confirm (and neither is the source of information), regarding that per capita expenditure.
He indicated that “the negative thing is that it must be determined what the ideal grams are so that a person can live healthily, work the legally established hours and be able to produce; but only the amount of protein is mentioned.”
On the other hand, he stated that here we are not talking regarding the cost of the basic food basket, but rather the per capita expenditure to acquire calories in urban and rural areas. “Despite the shortcomings and the data being used, spending remains well above the minimum wage established for 2024,” added Velásquez.
Follow-up
Gómez said that other entities such as the Directorate of Consumer Care and Assistance (Diaco) should follow up on these 66 and 60 products that are established in the new baskets, to determine the implications.
Regarding some future corrections, and designing is not the same as implementing, and with the execution in the first month of measurement, we have to see how the indicator evolves, in the second and third month, make a finer thread, propose the amendments and evaluate, especially in the caloric part, he suggested.
Ups and downs
According to the CPI, among the products that had the greatest positive impact – increases – were gasoline (0.07%); fresh chicken meat (0.06%); fresh tomato (0.02%); onions (0.01%); and other types of regional foods (0.01%).
Contrary to this, the products that registered a negative variation -decreases- were gas in containers -cylinder- (-0.07%); tortillas (-0.02%); sweet bread (-0.02%); potatoes (-0.01%); and dried black beans (-0.01%).
In addition, of the thirteen spending divisions that make up the new CPI, transportation was the highest (0.07%); restaurants (0.02%) and food (0.01%) registered the highest positive monthly incidence. For its part, housing is the expenditure division with the smallest decrease (-0.06%), followed by miscellaneous goods (-0.01%); and furniture (-0.01%).
Base year change
The CPI calculation has a new base month and year which is December 2023, which, according to the INE, reflects consumption habits and a new food basket, with the results of the National Survey of Income and Expenses (Enigh), which It had the advice of the International Monetary Fund and the Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLAC).
The previous CPI measurement in Guatemala was December 2010, but the consumption pattern of products and services changed during that period, influenced in part by the effects of the pandemic.
It is expected that for this first semester the results of the National Living Conditions Survey (Encovi) will be presented, which aims to measure the population in poverty and extreme poverty.
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