AA/Peter Kum
Chadian President Idriss Déby Itno died on April 20, 2021 from his injuries while commanding his army in fighting once morest rebels in northern Chad. When the sudden death of Idriss Déby was announced, a transitional military council was set up headed by the president’s son, Mahamat Idriss Déby. On taking power, the young 37-year-old general announced that the transition will last for a period of 18 months and promised to organize elections at the end of the transition for a return to constitutional order.
According to the Constitution, it was up to the President of the National Assembly, Haroun Kabadi, to ensure the interim and to organize elections. Refusal of the latter, impossibility to govern due to illness… the versions put forward to justify this coup are numerous. France, for its part, considered that the situation in N’Djamena is “special”.
“As soon as the death of President Déby was announced, Chad moved from a constitutional regime to a military regime. All governors, prefects and sub-prefects are soldiers,” Chadian political scientist and research professor Evariste Ngarlem Tolde told Anadolu Agency.
In a report published on October 11, 2021, the NGO Amnesty International considered that the new military regime does not protect the right to freedom of expression.
“Since the beginning of the political transition, several demonstrations have been banned and repressed by the authorities. Between April 27 and May 19, 2021, at least 16 people were killed during protests in N’Djamena and the southern town of Moundou. The results of the investigations have still not been communicated”, noted this NGO.
– Social growl
The unexpected death of Idriss Déby was also followed by social unrest in Chad.
“Magistrates, unemployed graduates, the disabled, transporters, opposition parties, teachers and students have expressed their dissatisfaction during this transition period and for various reasons. To put an end to these mood swings, the president of the transition made promises to the strikers. Other mood swings were suppressed by law enforcement,” Chadian economist statistician Ngaryanouba Titiyan said in a statement to Anadolu Agency.
According to this statistician, the Chadian economy observed an unexpected drop of 1.1% during the year 2021.
“Chad’s macroeconomic development has been affected by a series of negative and long-lasting shocks. These include covid-19, volatile oil prices and a significant deterioration in oil sector output, security attacks, climate change and food insecurity. It should be noted that some partners also hesitated to invest in Chad following the death of President Déby. They certainly feared unrest during the transition period,” he explained.
– “Sahel Gendarme”
Before his death, Idriss Déby Itno, the warlord who became the “gendarme of the Sahel”, had engaged Chad on several fronts. The man who assumed the presidency of the African Union (AU) in 2016 had acquired a leading stature in recent years by positioning his formidable army at the forefront of the fight once morest terrorism in Lake Chad, in northern Chad near of the border with Libya and Sudan and in the Sahel.
“The coming to power of General Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno, following the death of his father Idriss Déby Itno in April 2021, might have sown doubt. But the son seems to continue his father’s military commitment in the Sahel. The Chadian military junta had even decided in December 2021 to send men to Mali in order to reinforce the contingent stationed in the Aguelhok region, in anticipation of the announced departure of French soldiers”, explains, for his part, the Chadian geostrategist Abraham Danja.
“At the level of Lake Chad, we hardly hear any more regarding the terrorist attacks of the Boko Haram group. In northern Chad where President Deby was killed, the Chadian army neutralized several rebels and took some prisoners. So militarily, we can conclude that Chad is on the right track a year following the death of Marshal Déby,” added the geostrategist in a statement to AA.
– Waiting for dialogue
By taking power on April 20, 2021, Chad’s new strongman had dissolved parliament, dismissed the government, repealed the Constitution and promised “free and democratic elections” following an eighteen-month transition.
General Mahamat, whose destiny changed on April 20, 2021, had also promised an “inclusive national dialogue” open to “all” opposition, political and armed, and which must lead to elections.
“Chadians have been waiting for this dialogue for years to build together a Chad of peace, stability and security. Politico-military groups are in consultation in Doha, Qatar. Exiled opponents have returned to the country and are waiting to participate in the national dialogue scheduled for May 10 in Ndjamena. This is encouraging progress that should be applauded with regard to this transitional government,” Saada Mahamat Djido, a Chadian political scientist, told AA.
To prepare for the May 10 national dialogue, a pre-dialogue between the Chadian government and politico-military groups has been held in Doha since March 13.
“The pre-dialogue will lead to agreements that are prepared in advance. And they’re going to come and do a mock inclusive dialogue. It would be a seminar of sandwiches that people will share, but we will do no good. A rebel movement has also broken off the negotiations,” Chadian political scientist Mahamat Hassane told AA.
– Doubts regarding meeting deadlines
Six months before the theoretical deadline for the organization of the elections, doubts regarding the respect of deadlines by the ruling junta persist.
“The transition schedule will not be respected. The Doha negotiations are not advancing. It is not certain that the dialogue will take place on May 10 as long as the politico-military groups and the junta do not agree. The transition is likely to be prolonged,” projected Cameroonian political scientist Eric Owona.
“The transition from father to son as we experienced it in Gabon might be effective in Chad. Chad’s partners like France will be comforted if this is the case. Chad with a military in power is a symbol of stability in the sub-region,” he concluded, in a statement to Anadolu.
“Our wish is not to go beyond (18 months), but there are two conditions for this deadline to be respected. The first is for us Chadians to be able to agree to move forward at the planned pace. The second is that our partners help us finance the dialogue and the elections, because it is obvious that the Chadian Treasury cannot bear such a cost alone. If we agree and if we are helped, the 18 months are within our reach. Otherwise, it will be very difficult,” noted the head of the junta last June.
*The opinions expressed in this analysis engage only their author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial line of Anadolu Agency.
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