Sentence / Sho Seibayashi
Shortly following the spring of 2022, the trend of the bullish semiconductor industry in the market has diverged. TSMC was bought by foreign investors, and its stock price quickly hit a record high; but UMC, which is also a big growth in performance and a big jump in profit, has experienced a stock price dive. The situation, or even falling behind the year line, leaves many question marks in the hearts of small investors.
“Financial News” reported that on January 25, UMC’s legal meeting was a key to the stock price carnage. Although at the meeting, the company is still optimistic regarding the outlook for this year, but the phrase “the 28nm market may face oversupply following 2023” gives the bears a chance to slaughter. On the same day, ADR fell by 7% in response. In the following two days, UMC’s share price fell by nearly 13%, and it has been weak so far.
The key points of entering and exiting the stock price level legal person
According to the analysis of “Financial News”, it can be seen from the reports of various brokerages that the outlook for UMC is generally still optimistic. It is believed that the capital expenditure of UMC will reach 3 billion US dollars, and the supply of semiconductors will exceed the demand, and the quotation will have room to increase. The forums of online stockholders are also asking why the price of UMC products has increased, the profit has increased, the gross profit has increased, and the supply and demand of the industry is still tight. Is it really because the market may be oversupplied in 2023?
Regarding the killing of UMC, a life insurance trader put forward the first point of view. The prospects of the semiconductor industry are quite transparent. At this time, the individual situation of TSMC, UMC, or RSMC, in fact, has a very low impact on the stock price. , “The level of stock price level” is the basis for legal persons to enter and exit.
The “Financial News” report pointed out that, in simple terms, since the market turned over from its low point on March 19, 2020, whether it is TSMC or UMC, 2020 will be a year of sharp gains. But this will not be the case in 2021. TSMC, whose stock price has surged to 600 yuan, has become a global semiconductor leader and even ranked among the top 10 companies in the world because of its market value of more than 500 billion US dollars. In terms of fundamentals or chips, a lot of kinetic energy is required, which is why TSMC has no special movement in 2021.
In contrast, UMC in 2021 can be pushed from less than 50 yuan to 70 yuan, an increase of as much as 40%. This is because from the perspective of corporate traders seeking returns, the stock price is relatively strong. TSMC. In the same way, when TSMC, which has been sorted out for one year, will open a red market in 2022, because the “stock price level” has rested for a long time, the entry of foreign capital will push up the stock price once more; in contrast, UMC’s “stock price level” is a bit higher. , rising for two consecutive years, the stock price rose from 12 yuan to 70 yuan, the legal person holding UMC in the market is the winner, so it is not surprising to take advantage of the fact that the law will announce the profit and get out of the car.
According to the analysis of Caixun, the second key factor to detonate UMC’s killing is the loosening of the chip surface, and many analysts point the arrow to foreign capital. The legal person said that compared with TSMC since the beginning of this year, the three major legal persons have re-established positions, pushing up the stock price to a new high, and UMC has been regarded as a cash machine by foreign investors. As of February 11 this year, foreign investors have sold more than 340,000 copies, and it is only necessary to digest this. Huge selling pressure, the stock price is not easy to rise.
The chips were loose, and there were signs in October last year
Analyst Cai Zhenghua of Moore Investment Advisors explained that foreign capital trends tend to follow US stocks. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has been revised the most this year, with a decline of 14.8%. Therefore, it is not surprising that foreign capital adjusts UMC according to a certain proportion.
However, since the stock price level is very important, investors now want to know more: “UMC has fallen so deeply, does it mean that it can be bought?” Cai Zhenghua said, in fact, the chips can speak, when UMC can make a bargain, at least wait first Foreign capital will not be sold.
In fact, according to the “Financial News” report, since the share price of UMC hit the 70-yuan mark in the third quarter of last year, there has been a loosening of chips. In October last year, the balance of UMC’s borrowing and selling of coupons surged from more than 240,000 to 570,000 in an instant. After double the number of empty coupons, the stock price has been suppressed.
After the legal meeting this time until February 11, the balance of UMC’s borrowed coupons sold from 430,000 to 540,000 in one go, and more than 100,000 more empty orders. The legal person explained that the balance of borrowing and selling bonds usually has a high correlation with foreign chips, which means that at this stage, the power of UMC’s short side is greater than that of its long side. In addition to selling 340,000 shares of existing stocks, 100,000 bonds were also borrowed to sell short. Obviously, the alarm of foreign selling pressure has not been lifted, and there seems to be no short-term signal to stop the decline.
Further reading:
shock!SMIC’s performance report hides excess warnings
UMC Law Says Lazy Man’s Profit in 2021 is 55.78 billion, a record high
