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In the past week, a new situation has emerged in the Russia-Ukraine war that has been attracting the world’s attention: Ukraine is expected to join the European Union. On April 8, European Commission President von der Leyen and the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Borrell arrived in Kyiv to discuss the country’s accession to the EU with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The vote accepted Ukraine’s application for membership.
Von der Leyen handed Ukraine a questionnaire on EU candidate status to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, marking the official start of Ukraine’s EU membership process, as the questionnaire is the starting point for determining membership. Von der Leyen said: “I demand that progress be made as soon as possible. Our goal is to submit Ukraine’s application to the Council this summer.
When the Russian-Ukrainian war just started, the author immediately issued an article claiming that the fundamental way to end the Ukrainian war is for Ukraine to join the EU instead of joining NATO, because the former can remove Russia’s pretext for starting the war, while the latter is a security for Ukraine to guard once morest Russia Protection – After all, most EU countries are NATO members themselves, but the EU is not a military bloc. The EU’s positive attitude towards Ukraine’s accession this time proves that the author’s judgment is justified; it also shows that the EU does not want the Russian-Ukrainian war to continue, which is probably the exact opposite of what the United States wishes.
Another new development in the Russian-Ukrainian war is: Also last week, Putin’s spokesman Peskov publicly admitted that the Russian army suffered “significant losses” in an interview with British Sky TV, which shows that Russia has no difficulty in the war. continue.
EU uses Ukraine’s accession to contain Russia
The EU has accelerated the process of Ukraine’s accession to the EU, of course, in public to express its political support for Ukraine, which is fighting once morest Russia, but at the same time, as the author advocated that Ukraine should abandon NATO and join the EU at the beginning of the war, use the EU and Russia to join the EU. The characteristics of a large number of overlapping NATO membership to contain Russia and protect Ukraine should also be one of the considerations for the EU to quickly change its position on Ukraine’s accession this time.
Let’s first look at the coverage of the above-mentioned countries with dual identities of the EU and NATO within the EU. Of the 27 countries currently in the EU, only 6 are not members of NATO, and 5 of them, Sweden, Finland, Ireland, Austria and Malta, are internationally recognized as permanent neutral countries. So the final conclusion is: there is only one non-neutral EU country that does not participate in NATO.
The widespread overlap of EU and NATO memberships within the EU actually provides a good security protection for the countries that join the EU, especially for Ukraine, which regards Russia as a hostile country. At the same time, given Ukraine’s geographical location, the EU’s admission of Ukraine into the EU is actually an effective containment to Russia, and it actually increases the EU’s platform and ability to contain and alert Russia. Moreover, Russia cannot oppose Ukraine or other countries joining the EU, because the EU is legally an economic and social union between countries, not a military bloc. As a sovereign state, Ukraine has the right to join, and Russia cannot use its own national security as an excuse , strongly opposes the entry of other countries into an economic and social union of states.
On the other hand, there is another reason why the EU can admit Ukraine to the EU: in the negotiations on armistice and ending the war held by Russia and Ukraine at the end of March, Russia has accepted that Ukraine can join the EU. Therefore, the EU opens its doors to Ukraine, which is actually not very risky. However, the interesting question here is that Russia is well aware that the above-mentioned overlapping of EU and NATO memberships is widespread within the EU, and the impact of this phenomenon on Russia following Ukraine’s accession to the EU is obvious, but Russia still agrees to Ukraine’s accession to the EU, which itself has It can explain the problem. This at least shows that Russia has been unable to continue the war with its own strength and urgently needs a truce; it also shows that within Putin’s ruling group, opinions may have been inconsistent, Putin’s position is shaking, and it is difficult to persuade everyone within the ruling group. Major adjustments must be made in order to survive the current difficulties.
Problems may have arisen at the top of Russia
Another focus of international public opinion last week was that the Russian Presidential Spokesperson took the initiative to release a signal to foreign media that the Russian military suffered “heavy losses” in Ukraine. This was seen as “suggesting that the Russian-Ukrainian war may end soon”. In addition, the author believes that this is also a sign of problems within Putin’s ruling clique, because for Russian domestic politics, the release of such information by foreign media, whether in Russia or abroad, can only be detrimental to Putin.
According to the introduction of international media, what happened is this: Kremlin spokesman Peskov admitted frankly in an interview with British Sky News last Thursday that the Russian army suffered “significant losses” in the war once morest Ukraine. Specifically, Peskov said: “We have a significant loss of troops and this is a huge tragedy for us.”
As for the specific number of casualties, Peskov did not disclose. However, the figures revealed by the Russian Ministry of Defense on March 25 found by international media are that more than 1,350 soldiers were killed and more than 3,800 were injured. But German Chancellor Scholz said last month that at least 10,000 Russian soldiers had been killed. International media reported that the Kremlin suggested on Friday that Russia’s “special operation” in Ukraine might end “for the foreseeable future.” The Kremlin said that Russia’s goals are being achieved, and that both the Russian military and negotiators are working on it. These messages are considered to be Russia’s suggestion that the Russian-Ukrainian war may soon end.
But in any case, it is not normal to release such information when the war is not over. Even for the sake of Russia’s domestic stability, the release of the above information at this moment also shows that there are problems in Russia, which may involve Putin’s cronies and the army, which will directly affect Russia’s domestic confidence in Putin and may lead to unpredictable consequences.
According to the above situation, as long as Ukraine has a firm will to fight and the support of the United States and EU countries for Ukraine continues, it is possible for Russia to give up its territory in the Donetsk region, at least it can be negotiated. As for the prospect of Crimea, the author firmly believes that Russia and Ukraine need to reach a compromise: Ukraine’s sovereignty must be recovered; Putin and Russia’s face should not be thrown to the ground, otherwise Russia will have to fight to the death. The correct solution should be as analyzed and advocated in the author’s article on April 1: Ukraine regains its sovereignty, but in view of the inseparable historical and realistic ties between Russia and Crimea, Ukraine should take the form of law to transfer Crimea to Crimea. All Russian residents opened as free ports. If not, this matter cannot end.
(Note: The author is the secretary-general of the International Public Opinion Research Center of the Charhar Institute and a researcher of the Peninsula Peace Research Center. This article only represents the author’s personal views. The editor-in-charge email bo.liu@ftchinese.com)