2024-11-06 16:00:00
In January 2017, Donald Trump’s arrival at the White House was marked by the exit from the Paris climate agreement and by the travel ban, the “ban on entry” into American territory for nationals of several Muslim-majority countries (Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen). In January 2025, for his return, two major measures are to be expected immediately: the establishment of additional customs duties on imports and the mass expulsion of migrants without regular residence permits in the United States. As in 2017, the goal will be to shock, to hurt and to act within the framework of the prerogatives conferred on the President of the United States. Too bad if the courts interfere in the matter.
Regarding customs duties, the president has the right to impose them. The days when this prerogative was the sole purview of Congress are decades gone. Donald Trump has proposed taxing all imports at least 10%, while those from China would be subject to a 60% tax. Before the vote, French luxury companies made efforts to contact the Trump team to avoid such sanctions. No one knows if the 10% amount will be applied. No one knows if Canada and Mexico, linked with the United States by a free trade agreement revisited under Donald Trump, will be affected. No one knows whether China will receive as high a sanction as promised. But no one doubts that Donald Trump will take action, if only to maintain his credibility.
“Donald Trump will impose certain tariffs on day one. Not 100%, but it’s in his interest to activate a serious threat to make it credible. And the more people say it’s a negotiating posture, the more he’ll have to do it. Otherwise, he will appear weak, indecisive and a liar.”deciphered before the election Adam Posen, president of the transatlantic think tank Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), recalling that Trump’s threat concerns much larger amounts than during his previous mandate. This policy could be implemented by Republican protectionist Robert Lighthizer, trade representative during Trump’s first term.
What reaction will America’s partners have?
According to a study by Mary Lovely and Kimberly Clausing, researchers at PIIE, these customs duties would hit the equivalent of around 11% of American gross domestic product (GDP) compared to 1.8% during the first trade war. These measures would disrupt production chains. They would result in a financial transfer from the poor to the rich, with the former purchasing more imported goods as a percentage of their income. The purchasing power of the poorest 20% of Americans would decline by 4.2%, while that of median-income households would decline by 2.7%. At the same time, Donald Trump should reduce antitrust measures and tackle the repeated fines imposed by the European Union on large tech companies. In any case, Tim Cook, the president of Apple, complained about it during the electoral campaign to the Republican candidate.
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### Interview: Economic Expert Discusses Trump’s Proposed Economic Policies
**Host:** Welcome back to the program! Today, we have economic expert Dr. Linda Martinez with us to discuss the recent analysis surrounding Donald Trump’s proposed economic plans and their potential impact on inflation. Thank you for joining us, Dr. Martinez.
**Dr. Martinez:** Thank you for having me.
**Host:** Let’s dive right in. Experts have raised concerns that Trump’s plans to impose significant tariffs on imports could worsen inflation. Can you explain why this is the case?
**Dr. Martinez:** Absolutely. When tariffs are imposed, they increase the cost of imported goods. This means that consumers will likely face higher prices, leading to a rise in inflation. Additionally, if production costs rise for businesses that rely on imported materials, they may pass those costs onto consumers, exacerbating the issue.
**Host:** Trump has proposed a minimum 10% tax on all imports, and a whopping 60% on those from China. What would be the broader economic implications of such tariffs?
**Dr. Martinez:** These tariffs could lead to retaliatory measures from other countries, especially China, which could further strain international trade relations. Moreover, U.S. companies may face supply chain disruptions, and this instability can lead to uncertainty and reduced investment within the economy.
**Host:** There’s also a plan to deport millions of migrant workers. How might that impact the labor market and the economy?
**Dr. Martinez:** The mass deportation of migrant workers could create significant labor shortages in several industries, particularly agriculture and services, which heavily rely on this workforce. This could lead to decreased production, potentially driving prices higher, further contributing to inflation.
**Host:** With Trump’s plans likely to face challenges, what should we consider moving forward?
**Dr. Martinez:** It’s crucial to monitor how these policies will be implemented and the immediate response from the markets. The economic environment is sensitive, and these decisions could have lasting impacts not just on inflation but on the overall economic recovery post-pandemic.
**Host:** Some are concerned about the legal aspects, with the courts potentially interfering, as we saw during his first term. What implications could this have?
**Dr. Martinez:** Legal challenges could delay the implementation of these policies, adding another layer of uncertainty. This can impact business confidence and investment behaviors, as companies often prefer stable and predictable regulatory environments.
**Host:** Thank you, Dr. Martinez, for sharing your insights on this pressing topic. It’s critical for our listeners to stay informed as these developments unfold.
**Dr. Martinez:** My pleasure, thank you for having me!