Posted 8 Feb. 2023 at 9:19Updated Feb 8. 2023 at 12:23
Temporary air hole or beginning of a reversal? Salaried employment in the private sector stalled in the fourth quarter, rising in net by barely 3,000 jobs, according to still provisional INSEE figures published on Wednesday. In mid-December, the national statistical institute still expected 29,000 more despite the palpable slowdown in the economy. This stagnation contrasts with the strong increase of +0.6% observed in the third quarter, which resulted in nearly 120,000 more salaried jobs.
Excluding temporary work, salaried employment in the private sector is stable or almost stable in industry and construction. It even fell in the market tertiary sector, which has fueled the vast majority of the upturn in employment since the spring of 2021: -11,400 jobs following +85,000 in the third quarter. Conversely, temporary work continued to grow this fall, gaining 6,500 jobs, an increase of 0.8%, following +1.9% in the previous quarter (+14,900 jobs).
Puzzled economists
“This stability follows seven consecutive quarters of sharp increase”, underlines INSEE, which recalls however that salaried employment in the private sector increased by 1.5% over the whole of 2022 (i.e. +304,900 jobs) and that it exceeds its level before the health crisis (end of 2019) by 4.5% (i.e. +888,000 jobs).
The halt will not fail to question economists, perplexed for months on the reasons for the discrepancy between the very good health of the job market and the relatively low level of growth, to the detriment of labor productivity. . At this stage and awaiting the final figures in March, INSEE estimates that the stagnation in the fourth quarter is relatively close to what it expected in mid-December (+0.1%).
“A gloomy economic context”
“The slowdown in private salaried employment is consistent with that of the declarations of hiring recorded by Urssaf. Regarding hiring, the slowdown is more marked in the tertiary sector, and in particular in trade, ”analyzes its manager of the synthesis and labor market conditions division, Yves Jauneau. At this stage, he continues, the forecasts for the first and second quarters of 2023 (+27,000 and +12,000 respectively) remain consistent with the activity scenarios for the first part of the year published on Tuesday (a GDP growth of 0 .2% each quarter) .
“The stability of employment is not surprising in a gloomy economic context. The slight increase in temporary employment is rather encouraging for 2023 ”, abounds the Asteres cabinet. As a reminder, GDP grew by only 0.1% in the fourth quarter.
Project “France work”
If, on the other hand, the halt lasts, this may presage a rise in unemployment. The number of unemployed jobseekers registered with Pôle Emploi fell by 114,000 in the fourth quarter, to slightly more than 3 million people, the lowest since the end of 2011.
In its latest forecast, INSEE expects an unemployment rate of 7.3% of the active population at the end of June 2023, the same level as currently. While pursuing its objective of achieving full employment by the end of the five-year term, the government hopes to grab another 2 points less.
“A desirable but perilous objective”, recently estimated Mathieu Plane, deputy director of the analysis and forecasting department of the OFCE. The government is betting on its “France travail” project to reorganize the employment service, which will be supported by a bill by the summer. An experiment has been launched, targeting RSA beneficiaries who are too often left to their own devices .
