Dn a good fortnight, it will be the 23rd anniversary of the enthronement of HM King Mohammed VI. The traditional Speech from the Throne on this occasion will certainly be a reference to remember. Not the report by sectors, no doubt, but a reading and an understanding of the inventory. At the same time, axes of a vision that should decline public policies, galvanize existing energies and mobilize them within the framework of a new impetus.
Yes, we must speak of a new impetus! Continue to continue? This is no longer so tenable: far from it. The official discourse is thus called upon to be reviewed and corrected. Is it indeed so audible? Apart from a few ministers who have taken charge of their files and who are actively inserting themselves into the corridor of reforms, others are not really distinguished by their know-how or by their know-how. Question of personal background and curriculum; difficulty also in taking the pulse of citizens, the impulses of dissatisfaction in society and more generally the discontent that wells up in the depths and which feeds a dynamic of protest on the move, even if it is muddled and disheveled.
Optimism and self-satisfaction
Does the Akhannouch government ignore this situation? Perhaps not, even if his discourse persists in optimism and self-satisfaction. At times, he discards outright by incriminating the balance sheet and liabilities of the previous cabinet led by the head of the PJD, Saâd Eddine El Othmani, and even that of Abdelilah Benkirane (2012-2017). Reducer: is it effective? No one can seriously believe it. On September 8, voters voted for the “change” expected and announced by the president of the RNI, Aziz Akhannouch, and his two allies, the PAM of Abdellatif Ouahbi and the PI of Nizar Baraka. It was certainly unfair – and even indecent – to attack this new executive, invested in mid-October last, from the first weeks. Nor was the media agenda of the “Hundred Days” to be remembered. But this is no longer the case, in the middle of the year, at the end of the first semester. Why ? Because ministers are more responsible; because, moreover, they are now required, in the very next few weeks in any case, to prepare and refine their respective draft budgets for 2023. But the head of government still has to send them a note of orientation on the axes, and especially the priorities of the Finance Law of the next year. Where are we on this? A persistent element of questioning: it concerns citizens, but also economic operators. The CGEM submitted its proposals a month ago, as did the trade union centers elsewhere.
The boat is heavy, loaded even…
As for the cabinet, it is clear that it has not been helped by the economic situation. Appointed in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, nine months ago, he has a lot to do. The 2022 Finance Bill – already finalized by the previous El Othmani cabinet – has only been corrected in part; the Organic Finance Law imposed a deadline of October 20 at the latest. The impact of the social and economic health crisis continued and the first deconfinement measures were not taken until the beginning of spring 2022. The aid provided to various sectors (tourism, transporters) strained the resources of the Treasury; the beginning of the application of social protection also weighed in this direction. To this must be added a very poor agricultural campaign of 33 million quintals of cereals. Enough to drop growth forecasts to 1.1% in 2022, once morest 7.4% last year. These are the combined effects of the drought and the war in Ukraine. Hopes of a post-pandemic recovery are called into question, especially since inflation is increasing with 6% in advanced countries, 8% in Europe and more in emerging countries. Morocco retains a rate of 5.7%, but it is a weighted average calculated on a basket of 400 products; those for everyday use or consumption – constrained expenses – are only a good twenty at most (food, housing, price of hydrocarbons, etc.).
Since January 1, the budget dedicated to the Compensation Fund has exploded. He had retained 16 billion DH, but new forecasts are now required, as announced by Fouzi Lekjaa, on June 9, at the end of a Council of Government. He specified in this respect that it will take some 17 billion additional DH, distributed as follows: 9.8 billion DH for gas, 6 for wheat and 1.2 for sugar. So that the budget deficit will be at least 6.3% according to the forecast figures for June 30, 2022. Certainly, the boat is heavy – very loaded even. So ? Holding on and managing is not enough. It is repeated over and over once more that the crisis must also be an opportunity to make reforms. However, it should be noted that we do not have much visibility for the time being nor for 2023 – we will see, however, with the draft Finance Law in preparation -, even less for the following years.
Neither sequences nor priorities
Are we more informed regarding the cabinet’s agenda for the years to come? Not at all ! We have already reported in this same publication, almost two months ago, that we were not aware of a political and legislative calendar available until the end of this term of office in 2026. it’s not regarding details or punctual measures, but regarding something else: hierarchical sequences and priorities. The program of this government generally reported announcements; the only strong indication relates to social protection with stages between now and then, except to specify that it is… a royal project. But what regarding the rest? In practice, only the Departments of Education and Industry – directed respectively by Chakib Benmoussa and Ryad Mezzour – testify to a reform voluntarism, at a forced march, within the framework of a strategy for the future. There is also the Ministry of Youth, Communication and Culture, headed by a working Mohamed Mehdi Bensaid who has ideas for the future.
Other major sectors do not seem to be driven by a similar dynamic. What are we doing for entrepreneurship and productive transformation, competitiveness and attractiveness, the social economy? Or even for so-called resilient territories, as anchoring places for development, with this struggling regionalization and deconcentration just as lagging behind? Not to mention the profound reform of the State and the Administration or the financing of programs and the necessary tax reform. Same observation with regard to the projects of another development reference system, namely a new organizational doctrine. Good governance, the deepening and consolidation of freedoms coupled with the rule of law and justice: so many chapters on the agenda and still pending. Finally, we must mention all the opportunities for inclusion for all that are likely to strengthen social ties, particularly with regard to youth and gender equality: reforms all part of a political project for the future turned towards societal changes. A new impetus. A second generation of reforms: which requires that it can be carried and, if possible, embodied by the head of the executive. Does he want it? Can he? In any event, short-term management as it is today, even if it takes on a “technocratic” or even cosmetic guise, cannot do without the primacy of politics; it alone can indeed sustainably nurture popular support, at the very least its support…
Par Mustapha SEHIMI
Law professor, political scientist
