2024-02-20 09:46:00
(CNN) — A European Space Agency (ESA) satellite is expected to re-enter and largely burn up in Earth’s atmosphere this Wednesday morning.
The agency’s Space Debris Office, along with an international surveillance network, is monitoring and tracking the ERS-2 Earth observation satellite, which is scheduled to make its re-entry at 6:14 a.m. ET this Wednesday. with a 15-hour window of uncertainty. ESA also provides Live updates on their website.
“As the spacecraft’s re-entry is ‘natural’, with no possibility of maneuvering, it is impossible to know exactly where and when it will re-enter the atmosphere and start burning,” according to a statement from the agency.
The exact timing of the satellite’s re-entry is still unclear due to the unpredictability of solar activity, which can change the density of Earth’s atmosphere and how the atmosphere pulls on the satellite. As the sun approaches the peak of its 11-year cycle, known as solar maximum, solar activity has been increasing. Solar maximum is expected to occur later this year.
The sun’s increased activity has already had an impact on accelerating the re-entry of ESA’s Aeolus satellite in July 2023.
The ERS-2 satellite has an estimated mass of 5,057 pounds (2,294 kilograms) following exhausting its fuel, making it similar in size to other space debris that reenters Earth’s atmosphere regarding every week, according to the agency.
About 80 kilometers above the Earth’s surface, the satellite is expected to break up and most of the fragments will burn up in the atmosphere. The agency said some fragments might reach the planet’s surface, but they will not contain any harmful substances and will most likely fall into the ocean.
An illustration showing ESA’s ERS-2.
The backstory of ERS-2
The ERS-2 Earth observation satellite was first launched on 21 April 1995 and was the most sophisticated satellite of its type developed and launched by Europe at that time.
Together with its twin, ERS-1, the satellite collected valuable data regarding the planet’s polar ice caps, oceans and land surfaces and observed disasters such as floods and earthquakes in remote areas. According to the agency, the data collected by ERS-2 is still used today.
In 2011, the agency decided to end the satellite’s operations and deorbit it, rather than add to the swirl of space debris orbiting the planet.
The satellite performed 66 deorbit maneuvers in July and August 2011 before the mission officially ended later that year on September 11. The maneuvers burned the rest of the satellite’s fuel and decreased its altitude, placing ERS-2’s orbit on a trajectory to slowly approach Earth and re-enter the atmosphere within 15 years.
The chances of a person being injured by space debris each year are less than 1 in 100 billion, regarding 1.5 million times less than the risk of dying in an accident at home, according to the agency.
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