It is not possible in any way to underestimate the importance of the maritime border demarcation agreement that took place between Lebanon and the Israeli occupation following a long period of negotiations that reached its climax in recent days, following it had escalated at a more rapid and effective pace since last year, especially as it comes at an international political moment Inflamed, in light of the growing escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian war, which is taking on more complex dimensions in light of the obstruction of political solutions to this bloody conflict.
If the internal Israeli division has flared up in the past few weeks once morest the backdrop of the internal electoral scene, and what it entails at a stage such as these media and popular campaigns; The unified Lebanese position was remarkable, especially in terms of the formal retreat of “Hezbollah” and the “leaving” of negotiations to the Lebanese state.
No sane person can expect the Lebanese government to proceed with this historic agreement without the “approval” of Hezbollah, whose control over the Lebanese national decision has become almost complete for many reasons. The first, of course, is that it possesses a huge military arsenal that makes Lebanon’s domestic power balance highly imbalanced. It can be said that were it not for freedom of opinion and expression, which is still available to such a large extent in Lebanon that voices opposing his project are still rising, there would have been complete control over the various aspects of Lebanese political life.
What is important now is that Lebanon has achieved an important breakthrough that it desperately needs, especially in light of the deterioration of its economic, social and living conditions and its entry into a state of great collapse, the decline in the value of its national currency and unprecedented levels of inflation, which leave devastating effects on the various Lebanese social strata that touched The vast majority of poverty limits.
In the Lebanese colloquial dialect, the term “Zamt” is used, meaning something miraculously followed its course. Lebanon may have actually “stuck” with this agreement, whose underestimation is tantamount to self-flagellation or the practice of political strife, but this does not eliminate a legitimate fundamental question: What if, at this very moment, the interest of the Lebanese state does not intersect with the interest of Hezbollah? Was this agreement going to follow its course, or would it falter due to the “veto” of the first political and military force in Lebanon?
And by extension, what if Tehran’s regional sponsor did not agree to this agreement at this time as well, or wanted to use it for the benefit of one of the files it is negotiating with the West in Vienna or any other regional file? Practically, what was preventing this from happening? Or more clearly: What political possibilities would Lebanon have had if it were faced with this rejection from the axis of opposition, especially since Lebanese President Michel Aoun, whose term is regarding to expire at the end of this October, has repeatedly stressed the correlation between the speech of the pillars of that axis and the official Lebanese discourse Which has practically brought Lebanon under Arab and international isolation!
There is another fact that cannot be overlooked in any reading of the conditions of this agreement and its future outcomes, related to what can be called “soft power” represented by the drones that flew over the Karish field at a very sensitive and precise moment. As long as this step has contributed in a certain place to strengthening the Lebanese negotiating position, the need to absorb arms within the official system and under it is confirmed by these events.
The disarmament of this weapon by force is not on the table, because it would be an explicit call for a new civil war in Lebanon, and basically there is no possibility for that. It is required to take advantage of this element of power in order to serve the purely Lebanese national interest without being affected by external factors and the priorities and projects of the regional axes, which in their essence and creed do not necessarily intersect with Lebanon’s mission, role and aspirations.
There is another aspect that is no less important for Lebanon and the Lebanese, and it relates to the way and mechanism of managing this vital sector, which may result in wealth estimated at billions of dollars, and here emerges the inevitability of establishing a national oil company, similar to other oil countries so that the financial returns expected by the private sector are not devoured ( With what the identity of the beneficiary companies may be in terms of their direct or indirect ownership by influential political parties).
Transparency, good governance, and laws and regulations that preserve Lebanese rights and organize the management of the sector in a way that no form of suspicion of theft, waste or corruption can infiltrate, is supposed to take priority in the coming era so that the wealth of future generations of Lebanese are not wasted, and they miss the historical opportunity to get out of the country. crises that have plagued them for decades.
Tomorrow is near.
according to The Middle East
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All published articles represent the opinion of its authors only.
