2023-07-18 10:37:35
A team of scientists at Harvard claims to have found a chemical cocktail that has the potential to reverse the aging process. “We’ve previously shown age reversal is possible using gene therapy to turn on embryonic genes,” said David Sinclair, one of the researchers. “Now we show it’s possible with chemical cocktails, a step towards affordable whole-body rejuvenation.” Through experiments on mice and monkeys, they identified six chemical cocktails that were able to reverse visible signs of ageing in less than a week. The find will go through further research and clinical trials to validate the effectiveness and safety of these chemical cocktails for human use.
An anti-aging drug that rejuvenates the whole body will surely be a miracle cure. But it will also come as an economic boon. A fast-aging world population will certainly mean lower economic growth in many countries. India is one of the outliers as the majority of its population is young. But following 2050, India too will face an aging challenge.
Aging and economy
An aging population in several countries and regions such as the EU, China and East Asia and even the US is set to shave off a sizable part of the economic growth. Aging and economy are directly linked. As the number of elderly increases, it means lower availability of workers and also a higher number of economic dependents. An aging population and slower labour force growth affect economies in many ways—the growth of GDP slows, working-age people pay more to support the elderly, and public budgets strain under the burden of the higher total cost of health and retirement programs for old people, according to an IMF research.
Economic growth is slowing in advanced economies at least in part because the end of the baby boom led to a decline in population and labor force growth, despite immigration. Many empirical studies have found that GDP growth slows roughly one to one with declines in labor force and population growth — a disquieting prospect for both the United States and Europe, says the IMF research. Per capita economic growth too is impacted by aging as the elderly consume more than they produce while those between 25 and 59 produce more than they consume. A Rand Corporation study in the US in 2016 had found that a 10% increase in the fraction of the population aged 60+ decreases the growth rate of GDP per capita by 5.5%. Two-thirds of the reduction is due to slower growth in the labor productivity of workers across the age distribution, while one-third arises from slower labour force growth. A recent study by the Korea Economic Research Institute has revealed that a decrease in the working-age population due to low birth rates and an aging population, coupled with an increase in the dependent population, negatively affects the domestic gross domestic product (GDP) and has adverse effects on the economy.
The institute, according to the Korea Economic Daily, conducted an empirical analysis using panel data from Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries to estimate the impact of population structure changes on GDP. Assuming other factors remain constant, it was found that a 1% decrease in the working-age population leads to a 0.59% decrease in GDP, while a 1% increase in the dependent population results in a 0.17% decrease in GDP.
The cost of aging
Aging causes a decrease in productivity and constricts labour supply, thus impacting the overall economic growth. But It also burdens the state. The elderly need to be taken care of. The state spending on healthcare, insurance, pensions and other such benefits rises steeply in a country with a sizable aged population.
In the United States, the fiscal support ratio will drop 11 percent between 2010 and 2050 from population aging, according to the IMF research published in 2017. This means that to balance tax revenues and expenditures in the public budget (federal, state, and local combined) in 2050, tax revenues will have to be 11 percent higher or expenditures 11 percent lower, or some combination of the two, just to offset the increased costs from the aging population, says the research. For European countries, the corresponding number is between 14 percent and 28 percent, and for Japan it is 26 percent. These figures refer to the total government budget, not just the social welfare component.
Will the magic pill work?
Many scientists are sceptical of claims made by researchers of anti-aging solutions. But if the Harvard researchers are able to convert their findings into a safe anti-aging drug which can reverse aging by a few years, this will push up retirement age by at least those many years.
Even if the pill is not able to actually reverse the age but help people age well, it will generate economic benefits since healthily aging people too can be employed for suitable work. In fact, there is an awareness already in the view of a rapidly aging population in many countries such as Japan to rethink our typical life-stage cycle.
Andrew J. Scott, a professor of economics at the London Business School, who has written a book on aging, ‘The 100-Year Life’, told ET in April this year that we need to move away from the simple three-stage model — ‘education, work, retirement’ — to a multi-stage life where careers are more fluid, combining different stages, from working for money to charitable efforts, caring for family, etc.
“Average life expectancy tends to expand each decade — your children will live six to nine years more than you,” Scott told ET. “You will live 12 to 18 years longer than your grandparents. Projecting this forward gives a very possible result that children born today will live to 100 — that’s happening already with the number of people aged 100 increasing rapidly.”
A pill that can reverse aging or help age in a healthy way will be a boon when a large number of people will be living to 100 years in future and the working age will increase to the late seventies.
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