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Gasoline no, but diesel yes, because more than half of our diesel imports come from Russia. So of course, tankers have had plenty of time to prepare for this embargo since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. Stocks have been filled to capacity and Europe has 60 days of reserves. But next month, we will have to turn to other sources of supply such as Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, but also, and this is more problematic, China and India.
Why is this a problem?
Because if we don’t drive with diesel bought from Russia, so as not to finance the war, we’re going to do it with diesel refined on the other side of the world, essentially from Russian oil bought cheaply by countries which do not practice the embargo.
Beyond the moral question, the carbon footprint of this diesel which will go around the world in a super tanker will be disastrous. But alas, we have no choice, because Europe has for years abandoned the refining of diesel on its territory. We are therefore dependent on the rest of the world, while being very exposed: more than 22 million cars run on diesel in France and they represent 60% of private cars in low-income households.
This distant diesel, will it cost even more?
Yes because of the price of transport. According to some experts, the market might have partly anticipated the effect of the embargo, as suggested by the sharp rise in prices observed since the end of the discounts at the beginning of December. On the eve of the February holidays, a liter of diesel is already at 1.90 euros, but the risk of an outbreak beyond 2 euros is real in the coming weeks.
This would be very bad news for purchasing power.
We have known since the Yellow Vests movement that prices at the pump, in particular those of diesel, are as sensitive if not more so than the price of bread for the social climate.
While this has already been made inflammable by the increase in the retirement age, a sharp rise in the price of diesel might well be the spark too many.
Admittedly, the government has provided a fuel check of 100 euros for the most modest households. But will these make the connection when they refuel each week at more than 2 euros per litre.
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