A new poll confirms Trump’s advantage over Biden eight months before the US elections | USA Elections

The latest voting intention survey, published this Saturday, confirms Donald Trump’s advantage over Joe Biden in a hypothetical duel at the polls in November, if the presentation of both candidates is confirmed. Previous polls already anticipated the decline in support for the Democrat, but the latest one from Siena College for the newspaper The New York Times It puts in black and white the drop in popularity of the Democratic president, the lowest in his entire mandate: the percentage of voters who openly disapprove of Biden’s management reaches 47% today, eight months before the elections. He is the highest recorded in the Times/Siena polls during his presidency.

If the presidential elections, scheduled for November 5, were held today, 48% of those surveyed would choose the Republican Trump, compared to 43% who would vote for Biden. A not inconsiderable 10% corresponds to the undecided, who will be decisive in the final result. According to the survey published this Saturday, only one in four voters believes that the country is moving in the right direction, while more than twice as many believe that Biden’s policies have hurt them more than helped them. Despite the strength of the economy, one of the assets that Democrats use in the campaign, the inflation measure preferred by the Federal Reserve has given cause for concern this week, due to the overheating of prices, especially of fresh foods. . The majority of those surveyed believe that the economy is not doing well.

Biden’s policy towards Israel and the war in Gaza also diminishes support for Biden: more than 100,000 Democratic voters, mostly of Arab origin, as well as young and progressive voters, turned their backs on him this Tuesday in the Michigan primaries. A wake-up call that is not helped at all by the image that the president offered the day before when, frozen at the ready, he speculated regarding the imminence of a ceasefire in the Strip. Although the White House has modulated its speech on Israel, with increasing calls of attention to the Government of Benjamin Netanyahu, its position at the UN, where it has vetoed three humanitarian ceasefire resolutions, also takes its toll among the most progressive voters. .

Biden, 81, is also struggling to overcome doubts regarding his physical and mental suitability to hold office: the image of an old man with a bad memory that the prosecutor revealed less than a month ago in the classified documents has politically damaged the public image. of the candidate for re-election. Among Democratic primary voters, there are as many who maintain that Biden should not be the candidate in 2024 as those who say the opposite. The poll offers warning signs regarding disaffection with the leader among Democrats, as well as women, black and Latino voters. Among Arab and more progressive voters, the signs have become more than evident in Michigan. The strongest opposition to her leadership is among voters under 45, according to the Siena College poll.

So far, it is Trump who has best unified his party, even in the midst of the ongoing primaries, in which he is almost 20 points ahead of the second candidate, Nikki Haley, and when he faces a judicial offensive in which he is accused, in total, of 91 criminal charges, and must pay $500 million following being convicted in two other civil trials. Trump has consolidated the Republican base: he has the support of 97% of those who voted for him four years ago. Biden, by contrast, retains only 83% of his 2020 voters, while 10% say he will now support Trump.

This weekend there are Republican caucuses in Idaho, Missouri and Michigan (partials) and, on Sunday, primaries in the District of Columbia, to which Washington belongs.

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