Last year, 2022 was a year of turmoil. Although the world gradually came out of the threat of the epidemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine pushed up the high inflation due to the shortage of labor force, and the US Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates in the face of inflation. The turmoil in the global stock market caused by the global stock market, I believe that investors in the stock market were very touched by the operation last year.
However, in 2023, the Academia Sinica estimates that Taiwan’s GDP will grow by 2.41%, which is not far from Bloomberg’s forecast, and Taiwan’s annual GDP growth rate in 2023 may squat first and then jump. The annual growth rate of 1.5% in the first quarter will be the lowest in the whole year .Back-and-forth testing of economic indicators and Taiwan stocks since 1984weighted indexIt shows that the economic countermeasure light has fallen below the yellow and blue lights 172 times. If the buying action is carried out at the end of the month when the yellow and blue lights appear, 145 times will make money, 27 times will lose money, and the average return following holding for one year is regarding 25. %, the winning rate can reach regarding 85%. Therefore, once the prosperity light falls into the blue light, the winning rate will be higher. When Taiwan stocks have the opportunity to squat first and then jump in 2023, it also provides investors with a good opportunity to enter the market in the first quarter in the mid-to-long term.
▲Advanced process equipment
Gadden (3680-TW)
The main product is the EUV machine, which is considered to be the most important product for the 3nm yield rate of the advanced process, and the large EUV POD customers have not disappeared. The nano process will continue to drive the EUV POD unit price increase and shipment growth, and further benefit China’s semiconductor manufacturers will be de-beautified, the wafer carrier expansion plan will remain unchanged, and the visibility of orders will be long-term. This year’s 2023 EPS is expected to be more than 15-17 yuan, and the growth rate will be very beautiful. In terms of advanced process equipment, the current stock price is very high. Cheap.
mask (2338-TW)
In 2022 and 2023, the production capacity of photomasks will increase by 5% and 15% respectively, but the estimated revenue will increase by 41% and 39% respectively. Related production value increase. And benefiting from the maturity of the wafer foundry to manufacture the mask machine E0L, the insufficient market production capacity makes the company advantageous in negotiating prices with customers. This year’s EPS is estimated at 7-8 yuan. In terms of advanced process equipment, the current stock price is very cheap.
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