Macron has lost control of power and seems incapable of regaining it. Public finances are in serious trouble. The country seems ungovernable and threatens to explode socially. Will the Barnier government hold up? Excerpt from Mattina europeo
“Nothing is better” politically, economically and socially in France. The confusion and permanent chaos are starting to worry the European Union partners. President Emmanuel Macron has lost control of power and seems incapable of regaining it. Public finances are in serious trouble. The country seems ungovernable and threatens to explode socially at any moment. “Germany is not at its best either,” French officials blurt out in the face of this negative image of France. But it is not enough to point out the speck in the neighbor’s eye. It is necessary to find solutions to the problems in order to restore lost confidence.
BARNIER’S WORDS
“A team! Now let’s get to work.” Tasked on September 5 with forming a government, Michel Barnier remained sober on Saturday when he presented the outcome of the difficult negotiations conducted with the centrist political groups supporting Emmanuel Macron. “This is not a government of cohabitation, but of concubinage,” commented political scientist Stéphane Rozès in Le Figaro to describe the alliance between the right-wing Républicains party and the parties of the former presidential majority. “A reactionary government in the form of an insult to democracy,” exclaimed the first secretary of the Socialist Party Olivier Faure.
LE PEN CANNOT BRING DOWN THE GOVERNMENT IN FRANCE
The government is functioning, but will it survive? The new executive is at the mercy of the Rassemblement National. The far right, with 142 deputies, cannot bring down the Barnier government on its own, but if it supports a motion of censure presented by the left-wing parties allied in the New Popular Front, France will fall back into chaos. This instability worries the European Union. The transition period for the new community institutions is about to end. If France is paralyzed, unable to make decisions, the European machine will not function either.
FRANCE DIVIDED INTO THREE BLOCKS
For the first time, France is divided into three blocs and is held hostage by the two extremes of the right and left. Have the French become hostile to the EU? In June, during the European elections, they elected a majority of representatives of Europhobic parties. A month later, the 37 elected representatives of the far-right parties, the 9 elected representatives of the rebel group France Insoumise and the Communists, joined by the 6 elected representatives of the right-wing party Les Républicains and the 5 elected representatives of the ecologists, that is, 57 of the 81 French MEPs, voted against the reappointment of the German conservative Ursula von der Leyen for a second term as head of the European Commission. These votes went unnoticed, swamped by the 401 votes in favour. But the position of France, the second largest economy and a founding member of the EU, has caused some unease within the Union.
THE ROLE OF MELENCHON
At the national level, socialists, ecologists and communists have submitted to France Insoumise, the Europhobic formation led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon. With 193 deputies, the New Popular Front is far from having a majority in the National Assembly, but it is multiplying the obstacles and trying to provoke another dissolution to push Emmanuel Macron to resign. The head of state had no choice but to call Michel Barnier, a man of the right, the only one capable of obtaining the neutrality of the Rassemblement National, whose leader Marine Le Pen already sees herself as president in 2027. She just needs a little time to smooth out her image and successfully transform her party into an acceptable and credible formation.
THE BARNIER GOVERNMENT’S PRIORITIES
The Barnier government’s first priority will be to restore public finances. Contrary to what former Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire claims, they are not in good health. The governor of the Bank of France, François Villeroy de Galhau, has warned that France no longer has the means to continue with its current life: the public deficit could explode to 5.6 percent of GDP by the end of the year and the debt could exceed 3,000 billion euros. Barnier must present a financial recovery plan to Brussels. The deadline was scheduled for September 20, but has been postponed pending the formation of the new government. In Brussels, they will no longer be able to turn a blind eye to public finances, saying “because France is France”, as former Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker did in 2016 to justify an indulgence in budget margins denied to other member states.
THE CHALLENGES OF THE GOVERNMENT WANTED BY MACRON IN FRANCE
Times have changed. According to the governor of the Bank of France, the French government will have to “find 100 billion euros in 5 years, or 20 billion euros per year” to bring the public deficit back below the symbolic threshold of 3 percent by 2029. Reducing or improving spending, imposing tax increases: the remedy looks a lot like a purge that is difficult to digest in a country overheated by the opposing extremes of the right and left.
(Excerpt from European Morning)
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