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FILE – In this photo released by the Press Service of the Russian Defense Ministry on Feb. 14, 2022, tanks drive through a field during military exercises in Russia’s Leningrad region. (Press Service of the Ministry of Defense via AP, File)
BERLIN (AP) — Russian President Vladimir Putin has received the German chancellor following the Kremlin indicated diplomacy was still possible to prevent what Western officials have said might be an imminent invasion of Ukraine.
In another possible sign that the Kremlin wants to cool down, Russia announced that some of the units participating in exercises would return to their barracks.
But there is scant clarity regarding Russia’s intentions and how the crisis will unfold.
A look at what happens, where and why:
WHAT DOES THE RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT SAY?
The Russian Defense Ministry announced that some of the units participating in the maneuvers will begin to return to their barracks. But it was initially unclear where those forces were stationed and how many were leaving.
The day before, Western officials said some forces and supplies were moving toward the border, clouding the picture. Russia denies having plans to invade Ukraine despite posting troops on the country’s northern, southern and eastern borders and conducting large maneuvers nearby.
Russia has amassed more than 130,000 troops near Ukraine. Although the United States accepts that there may be a diplomatic way out, the allies insist on warning that these forces might advance on Ukraine at any time.
In a meeting with Putin on Monday, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Russia was willing to continue talks regarding the security grievances that have caused the crisis.
Asked Tuesday regarding the return of troops to their barracks, Lavrov said Russia conducts military exercises “on its own territory, and according to its own plans they begin, proceed and end as planned.”
Kiev responded skeptically.
WHAT HAPPENS ON THE DIPLOMATIC FRONT?
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz met with Putin in Moscow, following meeting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kiev the day before in a show of solidarity.
On Monday, Scholz demanded “clear steps to de-escalate current tensions” in Russia. And he stressed Western unity in preparing to apply serious sanctions if Russia continues to penetrate Ukraine, although he did not clarify what they would be.
Scholz said that “we are in a situation to make the necessary decisions at any time.”
“No one should doubt that the EU, NATO, Germany and the United States are determined and prepared, for example, as to what to do if there is military aggression once morest Ukraine,” he added. “Then we will act and there will be very far-reaching measures that would significantly affect Russia’s economic development possibilities.”
Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau, current chairman of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), met with Lavrov in Moscow. Rau said the OSCE has offered to host multilateral talks to ease tensions.
The Ukrainian foreign minister received his Italian counterpart.
WHAT DO RUSSIAN LEGISLATORS WANT?
Russian lawmakers have publicly called on Putin to recognize the rebel-held areas of eastern Ukraine, the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, as independent states. The Duma, the lower house of parliament, voted on Tuesday to present an exhortation to Putin to that effect, under a proposal from the Communist Party.
Kiev does not abide by the Minsk agreements, mediated by Germany and France to try to bring peace to eastern Ukraine, and “our citizens and compatriots living in Donbas need help and support,” Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin said. in the Telegram messaging application.
Volodin said the document will be presented to Putin “immediately.”
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said earlier on Tuesday that the recognition of the self-proclaimed republics is “very, very relevant to the public.” But it was unclear whether the vote would have any consequences.
WHAT DO THE ALLIES IN NATO SAY?
British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said a Russian invasion of Ukraine “would be imminent” but that Putin still had time to “step back from the edge of the cliff.”
Before Russia announced the return of some units to their barracks, Truss said that “we believe that Vladimir Putin has not yet made a decision on whether to invade Ukraine. It seems very likely to us.”
“There are huge numbers of troops stationed on the border. We know they are in a position to attack imminently, but you can change your mind and that is why diplomacy is so vital,” he told Sky News.
Truss said an invasion might include an attack on Kiev” as well as “an attack from the east.”
“What we anticipate in the next few days is that a false flag operation might be attempted to create a pretext that the Ukrainians attack them so that the Russians can justify an invasion of Ukraine,” he added.
In Oslo, Norwegian Defense Minister Odd-Roger Enoksen said the country will send 50-60 soldiers to Lithuania to bolster the allies’ presence in the Baltic states. The contingent will go for three months, with the possibility of extending its permanence.
HOW IS THE SITUATION LIVED IN MOSCOW?
As the United States warns that Russia might invade Ukraine at any moment, the drums of war are barely being heard in Moscow, where analysts and ordinary people agree that Putin will not attack the neighboring former Soviet Union member.
The Kremlin speaks of “hysteria” and “absurdity” in labeling warnings of an imminent attack, and many Russians believe that Washington is deliberately stoking panic and stirring up tensions to provoke conflict for internal reasons.
Putin’s furious rhetoric regarding NATO’s plans to expand to Russia’s “threshold” and his refusal to acknowledge Moscow’s concerns have resonated with public opinion, which is plagued by a sense of having been betrayed by the West following the Cold War and widespread suspicions regarding Western designs.
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Dasha Litvinova in Moscow, Yuras Karmanau in Kiev, Jill Lawless in London, and Jan M. Olsen in Copenhagen contributed to this report.
