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US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts the arrival of strong geomagnetic storms on our planet. They are supposed to occur due to a series of powerful eruptions on the Sun.
The storm is forecast to reach up to G4, the second highest on the scale. According to astronomer and solar expert Michal Švanda from the Astronomical Institute of Charles University, the first of them, with a magnitude of G4, arrived already on Friday evening. However, moderate storms (G2) are still forecast by NOAA for Sunday.
According to NOAA, such strong geomagnetic storms can cause, among other things, satellite navigation malfunctions, problems with control and protection elements in electrical networks, and the formation of auroras even outside the poles.
On Friday night, Czechs already started sharing photos of the aurora borealis on social networks.
❗️With darkness, it is already obvious that the aurora borealis can be seen very strongly. However, its intensity can continuously change very quickly. Fingers crossed. A clear and dark sky and a view over the northern horizon are essential. You can also use a mobile phone. Photo by Lukáš Ronge. pic.twitter.com/G6efaJ8vUR
— Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (ČHMÚ) (@CHMUCHMI) May 10, 2024
Eruptions on the Sun have already occurred and the particles are flying towards the Earth, what the impact will look like, but it also depends on what polarity they will have, which will only be determined at the moment of impact.
In addition, not only suitable magnetic conditions are sufficient to observe the auroras, but also a clear sky. To increase the chances of successfully observing the aurora borealis, the same basic recommendation applies as for other phenomena in the night sky – to look for a place far from larger cities, where the view is not spoiled by light smog.
According to Švanda, the time when geomagnetic storms will strike with maximum force can only be predicted approximately. According to Švanda, problems with electronics may occur, but no catastrophic scenario is expected, according to him. According to the scientist, the fourth degree of geomagnetic storm is strong, but the modern world already has quite a lot of experience with it. According to NOAA, storms falling into this category in the current solar cycle beginning in December 2019 have so far occurred three timeswith the last one hitting Earth this March.
More serious damage usually only occurs in Category 5 storms, which are considerably rarer. The last time such a geomagnetic storm hit Earth was in 2003, when it caused blackouts in Sweden and damaged transformers in South Africa.
Scenarios vary
The strongest solar flare to date (probably stronger than magnitude 5) observed by magnetic observatories occurred on September 1, 1859, when historical records show that auroras were only seen in the Caribbean or Bombay, India, and the telegraph suffered a massive outage.
According to Švanda, what such a strong eruption would cause in modern times with all electronics is still a subject of discussion.
According to him, the catastrophic scenario talks about a total blackout lasting years, the optimistic scenario about negligible damage and the “sober” scenario is “somewhere in between”.
According to Švanda, it is also not well known how often such a strong eruption can occur (Švanda discusses the topic in detail in this older interview).
Update: We have updated the statement about the first incoming storm