Hassan Nasrallah and the Changing Dynamics of Hezbollah
The silence was deafening. By mid-afternoon on September 28, almost 24 hours had passed since Israel attempted to assassinate Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, a Lebanese Shiite militia. The Israeli army declared him dead that same morning. But Hezbollah said nothing, neither about his fate nor about the massive attack on its headquarters in Beirut’s southern suburbs. Even the media, which is usually very combative, was silent. Finally, the group confirmed his death around 2:30 p.m.
The Aftermath of Nasrallah’s Assassination
By then, Israeli planes had already carried out waves of additional airstrikes across Lebanon. Israel has stated that its goal was to destroy more of Hezbollah’s rocket and missile arsenal, including anti-ship missiles that could be fired at natural gas platforms in the Mediterranean. Time is of the essence for Israel, as it seeks to eliminate Hezbollah’s capabilities before the group can regroup.
Hezbollah’s Response to Israeli Strikes
Hezbollah fired dozens of rockets into northern Israel the morning after Nasrallah’s death, a methodical response that reflected a disorganization within the group. It is too early to speculate on how it might retaliate. Even its surviving leaders may not fully grasp what comes next. However, one thing is clear: Nasrallah’s death will reshape Lebanon and the region in significant ways.
Shifting Rules of Engagement
Since October 8, when Hezbollah began firing rockets into northern Israel in solidarity with Gaza, Nasrallah had bet on maintaining an open yet limited border conflict. The unwritten rules of engagement lasted until July 27, when a Hezbollah rocket misfired and tragically killed 12 children on a soccer field. Following these events, Israel’s operations in Gaza reached a conclusion, allowing the government of Benjamin Netanyahu the opportunity to redefine its engagement strategies with Hezbollah.
Israel’s Strategic Assault on Hezbollah
On September 28, the Israeli army launched a calculated attack targeting Nasrallah. It was part of a comprehensive strategy that included the assassination of Fuad Shukr, the military leader of the group, three days prior. This assault was not an isolated incident but a precursor to a string of attacks designed to dismantle Hezbollah’s operational capabilities.
The Legacy of Hassan Nasrallah
His possible successors include Naim Qassem, his deputy, and Hashem Safieddine, head of the group’s executive board. Qassem, a 71-year-old civil servant, might be an uninspiring choice while Safieddine appears to be a more assertive candidate. He is younger, related to Nasrallah, and possesses close ties to Iran, as evidenced by his son’s marriage to the daughter of the late Qassem Suleimani, a prominent Iranian general.
The Uncertain Future of Hezbollah
Whoever assumes leadership will confront one of the most precarious moments in Hezbollah’s history. The group faces not only the loss of experienced military leadership—built over decades—but also public dissatisfaction within Lebanon, where Hezbollah’s iron grip on politics has been increasingly resented. Public support for Hezbollah may wane, raising concerns of sectarian tension amidst potential political shifts.
Hezbollah’s Role in Regional Conflicts
For years, Hezbollah has been a strong ally of Iran, aiding in the defense of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria and training Iranian-backed militias across the region. In light of Nasrallah’s death, reactions have varied drastically, with some celebrating in rebel-controlled areas of Syria while others in the Gulf remain silent yet may feel relieved.
The Potential Shift in Iranian Policy
As Iran observes the unfolding consequences of losing its most powerful militia, some experts theorize that its security policy might pivot significantly. An increasing number of voices within Iran advocate acquiring nuclear weaponry as a means of new deterrence against Israel, especially if conventional methods continue to falter.
Historical Parallels: The Six-Day War
An Arab official noted a striking parallel between the events of Nasrallah’s assassination and the Six-Day War of 1967. Just as Israel’s rapid victory shattered prevailing myths of Arab military strength, the fall of Hezbollah’s leader may dismantle the notion of a robust ‘axis of resistance’ that Nasrallah had long promoted.
The Future of Hezbollah’s Military Capabilities
Although Hezbollah is not likely to vanish, the military landscape will evolve dramatically in the wake of recent conflicts. The group still possesses thousands of armed partisans, a considerable stockpile of long-range missiles, and a supportive base among the Lebanese populace. However, the operational capacity will certainly differ from what it was pre-assassination.
Conclusion: A Shifting Landscape
The implications surrounding Nasrallah’s death and the subsequent Israeli assaults extend beyond immediate military considerations, reaching deep into regional dynamics and the future of Lebanon. Strategically, politically, and militarily, the landscape is being recalibrated, leaving analysts and policymakers to ponder the next chapter in this complex narrative.
