A Swift Shift in Power
Table of Contents
As insurgents surged across Syria in a sudden blitz late last year, diplomats representing countries supporting both sides of the conflict convened in Doha, Qatar. Among them were representatives from Turkey, Russia, iran, adn several Arab nations. The goal? To forge a path forward amidst the chaos.According to individuals privy to the December 7th meeting, a consensus emerged: the insurgents would halt their advance on Homs, the last major city north of Damascus, paving the way for internationally mediated talks with Syrian President bashar Assad regarding a political transition.
however, fate had other plans. Rebel factions from southern Syria, with a different agenda, surged towards the capital. By dawn, they had reached Damascus’ central square. Hours later,insurgents from the north,led by the Islamist group Hayyat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS),joined the fray. Amidst the upheaval, Assad himself retreated from the city.The lightning-fast offensive propelled HTS, the most formidable of the insurgent groups, into the role of Syria’s de facto rulers.Coordinating with their southern counterparts, they quickly seized control.
Yet, the uneasy alliance between these diverse factions has raised questions about the interim administration’s ability to unite them.
HTS leader ahmad al-Sharaa has called for a unified national army and security force,and the interim defense minister,Murhaf Abu Qasra,has initiated meetings with various armed groups. Though, some prominent figures, like southern rebel commander Ahmad al-Awda, have declined to participate.
A History of Rebellion
The southern province of Daraa,considered the birthplace of the Syrian uprising in 2011,played a pivotal role in this recent power shift. “When anti-government protests were met with repression by Assad’s security forces, we were forced to carry weapons,” recounts Mahmoud al-Bardan, a prominent rebel leader from Daraa.
The rebel groups that emerged in the south differed substantially from their northern counterparts. They were less Islamist-oriented and more localized. Aron Lund, a fellow with the Century International think tank, notes that “in the north, Turkey and Qatar heavily favored Islamist factions. In the south, jordanian and American involvement influenced the insurgency in a different direction.”
In 2018, factions in Daraa reached a Russian-mediated “reconciliation agreement” with assad’s government. Some former fighters relocated to Idlib, a haven for those displaced from areas recaptured by government forces, while others remained.”We only turned over the heavy weapons…the light weapons remained with us,” al-Bardan reveals, shedding light on the firepower that would later be unleashed.
When HTS-led rebel groups based in the north launched their surprise offensive on aleppo last year, these arms proved crucial. Factions in the southern provinces of Daraa, sweida, and Quneitra, reactivated, forming a joint operations room to coordinate with the northern forces.
undermining Diplomatic Efforts
The December 7th meeting in Doha aimed to prevent a complete collapse of syria’s political order. “We had heard from a number of parties that there might be an agreement that … no one would enter Damascus so there could be an agreement on the exit of Bashar assad or a transitional phase,” says Nassim Abu Ara, an official with the 8th Brigade of al-Awda, one of the largest rebel factions in the south.
However, “we entered Damascus and turned the tables on these agreements,” he asserts, underscoring the defiance of these southern factions.Al-Bardan confirms the narrative,stating that the alleged agreement “was binding on the northern factions” but not the southern ones.
“even if they had ordered us to stop, we would not have,” he boldly declares, reflecting the burning desire among many fighters to remove Assad from power.
Ammar Kahf, executive director of the Istanbul-based Omran Center for Strategic Studies, who was present in Doha on December 7th and was briefed on the discussions, corroborates the account.”There was an agreement among countries’ officials that the rebels would stop their offensive in Homs and go to Geneva for negotiations on ‘transitional arrangements’,” he explains.
The Uncertain Future of Southern Syria
Following a landmark meeting in December, hopes flickered for a lasting peace in war-torn Syria, specifically in the south. Foreign ministers from Turkey, Russia, Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Iraq convened on December 7th and declared their unified stance – a desperate call for an end to the bloodshed and the initiation of a thorough political process. However, the details remained shrouded in ambiguity, with direct answers from attending representatives remaining elusive.
The initial days after armed groups entered Damascus were marked by a palpable tension. Reports suggest that the HTS-led forces, struggling to impose order amidst the chaos, were met with resistance from other factions jostling for power. An Associated press journalist witnessed a heated exchange erupt when HTS fighters attempted to prevent members of another faction from claiming abandoned army weapons. While acknowledging the inherent disarray, Abu Ara, a key figure, noted, “There was some chaos, but we have to understand that these people were pent-up and suddenly they achieved the joy of victory in this manner.”
Fast forward to a recent visit by AP journalists to the western countryside of Daraa province. The absence of HTS forces was striking. Rather, a fighter from the Free Syrian Army, the dominant faction in the region, stood guard in casual attire, a testament to the shifting dynamics on the ground. Other local fighters proudly displayed a cache of tanks left behind by the retreating army. Issa Sabaq, one such fighter, declared with conviction, “Currently, these are the property of the new state and army, whenever it is indeed formed.”
Yet, the process of creating these new institutions is far from smooth. On New Year’s Eve, factions in Sweida, a city predominantly populated by Druze, staunchly opposed the arrival of an HTS security force convoy, emphasizing the hurdles still to be overcome.
Ahmed aba zeid, a Syrian researcher known for his in-depth analyses of southern insurgent groups, believes that several factions are adopting a cautious approach, hesitant to fully relinquish their authority or weaponry until a clearer picture of the future emerges. The reality on the ground is that local armed factions continue to act as the de facto security forces in much of the region.
Even with the establishment of a new police force in Daraa city, under the guidance of Badr Abdel Hamid, the newly appointed police chief backed by the HTS-led government, the transition is gradual and nuanced. Hamid has reported “constructive and positive cooperation” with local officials,but acknowledges that the expansion of state authority remains a delicate and time-consuming process.
Abu Ara underscores the uncertainty surrounding the future roles of these factions, emphasizing the need for clarity on their purpose. ”Will it be a strong army, or a border guard army, or is it for counterterrorism?” he asks, highlighting the critical questions that need answering to ensure a seamless integration. Despite the challenges, Abu Ara remains optimistic about reaching a peaceful resolution. He emphasizes the shared desire to avoid further conflict and bloodshed, stating, “A lot of people are afraid that there will be a confrontation, that there won’t be integration or won’t be an agreement. But we want to avoid this at all costs,as our country is very tired of war.”
What are the conditions Mahmoud al-Bardan believes are necessary for lasting peace and stability in southern Syria?
Interview title: Turning the Tide: A Conversation with Mahmoud al-Bardan
archyde News: Welcome to Archyde News, Mahmoud al-Bardan, a prominent rebel leader from the southern Syrian province of Daraa. Thank you for joining us today. To start, could you walk our readers through the recent power shift in Syria, particularly the role played by the southern rebel factions?
Mahmoud al-Bardan: Thank you for having me. The power shift we’ve seen recently is the result of years of resilience and resistance against the Assad regime. In the south, our fight has always been about removing assad from power and establishing a democratic Syria. When HTS-led groups from the north launched their offensive on Aleppo last year, we saw an opportunity to join forces and push the regime back.
Archyde News: Your group, along with others from Daraa, Sweida, and Quneitra, played a crucial role in this offensive, especially when you reached Damascus. Can you tell us more about the coordination between the southern and northern factions?
Mahmoud al-Bardan: Absolutely. After years of fighting separately, we finally united under a common goal. We formed a joint operations room to coordinate our efforts with the northern groups, including HTS. The surprise factor was key in our success, and it caught the regime off guard.
Archyde News: Your actions, though decisive, seemed to undermine the diplomatic efforts that were taking place in Doha at the time. Can you comment on that?
Mahmoud al-Bardan: I won’t deny that our offensive took some diplomats by surprise. but we had no choice but to seize the opportunity when it presented itself. Negotiations and political processes have been going on for years without any important results. The Assad regime has shown time and again that it will not step down peacefully.
Archyde News: Was there any communication or coordination with the countries involved in the doha meeting? After all, many of them support or have influence over certain rebel factions.
Mahmoud al-bardan: We had our own channels of communication with our backers, like Jordan and the U.S., but they were not involved in the decision-making process. We made the call based on the military situation on the ground and our fighters’ readiness.
Archyde News: Your group had previously signed a reconciliation agreement with the Assad regime in 2018. How did you manage to keep your arms and maintain your fighting capabilities?
mahmoud al-Bardan: We only handed over our heavy weapons as part of the agreement. We kept our light weapons, and over time, we managed to acquire more, with the help of our supporters.When the opportunity arose, we were ready to fight.
Archyde News: Now that you’ve played a significant role in AssadS retreat from Damascus, what steps need to be taken to ensure a lasting peace and stability in southern Syria?
Mahmoud al-Bardan: first and foremost, Assad must be removed from power.Only than can we focus on establishing a democratic, unified Syria where all communities feel safe and represented. We need to ensure a fair distribution of resources, rebuild our infrastructure, and address the needs of the millions of refugees and internally displaced persons.
Archyde News: Thank you, Mahmoud al-Bardan, for sharing your insights. your leadership and determination have played a significant part in shaping the current political landscape of Syria. We wish you and your people the best as you work towards a brighter future.
Mahmoud al-Bardan: Thank you. The road ahead is challenging, but we are committed to seeing it through.
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