Market Trends Under a Second Trump Presidency: what Investors Need to Know
Table of Contents
- 1. Market Trends Under a Second Trump Presidency: what Investors Need to Know
- 2. How Assets Might Perform in Trump’s second Term
- 3. U.S. Indexes: Will the Rally Continue?
- 4. Sector Performance: Energy Takes the Lead
- 5. Crude Oil and Gas Prices: A Mixed Outlook
- 6. Conclusion: Navigating Market Uncertainty
- 7. What’s Ahead for Oil, Gold, Bitcoin, and the U.S. Dollar in the Next 100 Days?
- 8. Oil Prices: Stability or Pain at the Pump?
- 9. Gold: A Safe Haven in Uncertain Times
- 10. Bitcoin: A Crypto Rollercoaster
- 11. The U.S. Dollar: Strength or Weakness Ahead?
- 12. Treasury Yields: A Tale of Two Bonds
- 13. Conclusion
- 14. What factors are driving the prediction that the energy sector will continue to outperform othre sectors in 2025?
- 15. U.S.Indexes: Will the Rally Continue?
- 16. Sector Performance: Energy Takes the Lead
- 17. Crude Oil and Gas Prices: A Mixed Outlook
- 18. Gold: A Safe Haven in Uncertain Times
- 19. Conclusion: Navigating Market Uncertainty
- 20. Additional Insights: Oil, gold, Bitcoin, and the U.S. Dollar
How Assets Might Perform in Trump’s second Term
Wall Street investors are closely watching how key assets like gold, Bitcoin, and U.S. indexes might perform under a second Trump presidency. Drawing parallels to his first term in 2017, experts are analyzing whether history could repeat itself amid shifting economic policies and market dynamics.
Since the 2024 presidential election, the S&P 500 has surged nearly 4%, with a notable 2.9% jump in a single week—its best performance since early November. However, this rally masks the underlying uncertainty surrounding expected tariffs, a slowing rate cut cycle, and the new management’s regulatory approach. To better understand what lies ahead, CNBC Pro examined asset performance during the first 100 days of Trump’s last presidency and consulted three financial experts for their insights.
U.S. Indexes: Will the Rally Continue?
During trump’s first 100 days in 2017, the S&P 500 climbed 5.3%, the Dow Jones industrial Average soared 6.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite surged 9.2%. This time,however,experts are skeptical about a repeat performance. Jeff Kilburg, founder and CEO of KKM Financial, noted, “In contrast to Trump 1.0, we’ve seen the S&P 500 have two consecutive years of nearly 25% returns.It’s really challenging to have a repeat unless we see additional consumer strength and corporate profits.”
Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management, echoed this sentiment, emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding the new administration’s policies. “We’re coming into a new administration this year that brings with it uncertainty over what new policy will look like,” he told CNBC. “Investors are likely to take a wait-and-see approach, and that’s pretty apparent thus far this year. We’re basically flat on the year.”
Sector Performance: Energy Takes the Lead
In 2017, the data technology sector outpaced others with an 11.5% gain, while energy stocks tumbled 8.2%. Fast forward to 2025, and the tables have turned. Energy has emerged as the top-performing sector, with a 9.2% increase, while technology stocks have struggled, declining 0.2% to become the S&P’s second-worst performer.
Hogan believes energy stocks will continue to dominate.“The supply and demand for energy products are much more balanced than what has been reflected in commodity prices,” he explained. “Energy is trading at very reasonable multiples and throwing off attractive dividends. It’s going to be one of the better-performing sectors.”
While artificial intelligence remains a driving force for tech stocks, Kilburg warns of a potential repricing. “We have to temper expectations that we’re not going to see the same parabolic gains in the alpha-producing vehicle it’s been for the last couple of years post-COVID,” he said. “Technology is still going to be a theme in 2025, but I think there’s a massive repricing coming in the first half of the year just because they’ve gotten too big, too fast.”
Both hogan and Kilburg see potential in the healthcare and financial sectors, citing a healthier interest rate habitat and increased capital markets activity as key drivers.
Crude Oil and Gas Prices: A Mixed Outlook
Crude oil prices were volatile during Trump’s first 100 days but ultimately ended lower than where they started. In 2025, however, experts predict a rise. kilburg pointed to Trump’s efforts to stabilize the Middle East as a catalyst.“My thesis was that if Trump is able to bring peace in the Middle East—which seemingly he has already brought here before the inauguration—then the price of oil is going to go up.” Indeed,West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude futures are both up more than 8% this year.
Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of Bleakley financial Group, added that new U.S. sanctions against Russian oil producers could further boost crude prices. hogan also highlighted lighter regulations under trump’s second term as a potential boon for energy distribution and supply.
Gas prices, which rose from January to april 2017, remain harder to predict this time around. Factors like global demand and geopolitical developments will likely play a significant role in shaping their trajectory.
As investors brace for Trump’s second term, the market’s path remains uncertain. While sectors like energy and healthcare show promise, others, such as technology, may face challenges. Crude oil’s trajectory, influenced by geopolitical developments, adds another layer of complexity. Ultimately, a cautious, informed approach will be key for those looking to navigate this evolving landscape.
What’s Ahead for Oil, Gold, Bitcoin, and the U.S. Dollar in the Next 100 Days?
As markets brace for the next 100 days, investors are closely watching key sectors, including oil, gold, bitcoin, and the U.S. dollar. Here’s a deep dive into what experts predict for these critical areas of the economy.
Oil Prices: Stability or Pain at the Pump?
Crude oil prices have been a hot topic, with analysts divided on their trajectory. One expert notes that oil is highly likely to stay rangebound in the near term. “We’re likely going to see the average price per barrel of oil in the $75 to $85 range for WTI. that translates to at or about $3 in gasoline, all things remain equal,” said Hogan. “I don’t see much change to that.”
Though, others warn of potential challenges for consumers. Kilburg predicts that rising crude prices could lead to higher gasoline costs. “It’s coming from a lower price because of the depressed price of crude oil. So I think that’s going to be a hurdle for the administration for the first 100 days,” he told CNBC.
Gold: A Safe Haven in Uncertain Times
Gold continues to shine as a reliable investment, driven by geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns.Hogan points to uncertainty as a key catalyst,while Kilburg highlights the impact of inflation. Boockvar adds, “gold has been able to rally in the face of a strong dollar and rising real rates, and that’s because of the voracious demand from central banks. I don’t see that changing because of the new administration.”
He further suggests that increased tariffs could boost gold’s appeal. “If anything,if we start to tariff people,I think people will be more inclined to be buying gold.”
Bitcoin: A Crypto Rollercoaster
Bitcoin’s recent rally has captured headlines, but experts are split on its future. Hogan believes the cryptocurrency could benefit from a more crypto-amiable administration and broader acceptance as an asset class. However, Kilburg warns of a potential pullback. “It’s an old adage to buy the rumor, sell the news. If we don’t have the U.S. government buying bitcoin in the first 100 days, then we will see a pullback in bitcoin,” he said.
The U.S. Dollar: Strength or Weakness Ahead?
The U.S. dollar has seen a steady rise, but some analysts believe the rally may lose momentum. Boockvar notes, “I have a feeling that Trump’s going to want a weaker dollar. So if I have to, I’m guessing that the strength we’ve seen in the dollar’s probably reflected most of the strength that we’re going to see.”
Hogan echoes this sentiment, citing economic growth concerns. “I think that we enter the new administration likely at a bit of a peak for the dollar. But I certainly don’t think it’s going to collapse and become a negative at any point.” kilburg, however, remains optimistic, predicting further gains unless significant tariff changes occur.
Treasury Yields: A Tale of Two Bonds
Yields on U.S.treasurys have risen sharply since 2017, with the 2-year yield at 4.283% and the 10-year yield at 4.623%. Hogan expects the 2-year yield to remain stable,reflecting Federal Reserve policy. “The two-year likely continues to mirror what our interpretation of the Fed monetary policy is going to be,and if they only cut rates one more time,it’s probably at the right place,” he said.
For the 10-year yield,Hogan predicts a range of 4.25% to 4.75%, while Kilburg foresees a temporary spike above 5%. “I actually think we’re going to have a short-term move in the 10-year above 5%. Then there’ll be a flush out of repositioning by some of the biggest institutionally positioned Treasury holders, and then it’ll kind of settle back in at 4.5%,” he explained. “But I think the first 100 days are going to be massively volatile for interest rates.”
Conclusion
The next 100 days promise to be a pivotal period for oil, gold, bitcoin, and the U.S. dollar. While some sectors may see stability, others could experience significant volatility. Investors should stay informed and prepared for potential shifts in these critical markets.
What factors are driving the prediction that the energy sector will continue to outperform othre sectors in 2025?
The financial markets in 2024 and the start of 2025 have been marked by notable trends and shifts, especially as investors brace for the second term of Donald Trump’s presidency.Here’s a summary of key insights from financial experts regarding market performance, sector dynamics, and commodity outlooks:
U.S.Indexes: Will the Rally Continue?
During Trump’s first 100 days in 2017,major U.S. indexes like the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite saw notable gains. However, experts are skeptical about a repeat performance in 2025. Jeff Kilburg of KKM Financial notes that the S&P 500 has already experienced two consecutive years of nearly 25% returns, making a repeat challenging without stronger consumer spending and corporate profits. Art Hogan of B. Riley Wealth Management emphasizes the uncertainty surrounding the new administration’s policies, leading to a cautious “wait-and-see” approach among investors.
Sector Performance: Energy Takes the Lead
In 2017, the technology sector led the market, while energy stocks lagged. By 2025, the tables have turned, with energy emerging as the top-performing sector, up 9.2%, while technology stocks have struggled, declining 0.2%. Hogan predicts energy will continue to dominate due to balanced supply and demand, attractive valuations, and strong dividends. Kilburg warns of a potential repricing in the technology sector, which has grown too big, too fast, post-COVID. Both experts see potential in healthcare and financial sectors, driven by favorable interest rate environments and increased capital market activity.
Crude Oil and Gas Prices: A Mixed Outlook
Crude oil prices were volatile during Trump’s first 100 days in 2017 but ended lower. In 2025, experts predict a rise, with Kilburg pointing to trump’s efforts to stabilize the Middle East as a catalyst. Peter Boockvar of Bleakley Financial Group highlights new U.S. sanctions on Russian oil producers as another factor that could boost prices. Gas prices remain harder to predict,with global demand and geopolitical developments playing a significant role.
Gold: A Safe Haven in Uncertain Times
Gold continues to be a reliable investment, driven by geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns. Hogan and Kilburg both highlight uncertainty and inflation as key catalysts for gold’s strength. Boockvar adds that gold has maintained its appeal as a hedge against economic instability.
As investors prepare for Trump’s second term, the market outlook remains uncertain.While sectors like energy and healthcare show promise, technology may face challenges. Crude oil’s trajectory,influenced by geopolitical developments,adds complexity. Investors are advised to adopt a cautious and informed approach to navigating this evolving landscape.
Additional Insights: Oil, gold, Bitcoin, and the U.S. Dollar
Looking ahead to the next 100 days, analysts are divided on oil prices, with predictions of stability in the $75-$85 range for WTI but potential challenges from rising gas prices. Gold is expected to remain a safe haven amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. Bitcoin and the U.S. dollar are also under close watch, with their trajectories tied to broader economic and policy developments.
the financial landscape is shaped by cautious optimism, sectoral shifts, and geopolitical factors, requiring investors to stay informed and adaptable.
