When Prabowo subianto, a former army general, secured a landslide victory in Indonesia’s presidential election last February, the question on everyone’s mind was: what kind of leader would he become? As the lengthy gap between the election and inauguration dragged on, speculation swirled. Now, 100 days into his presidency, Prabowo’s tenure offers a mixed bag of achievements, missteps, and strategic shifts that paint a complex picture of his leadership.
One of the most notable moves during Prabowo’s early days in office was Indonesia’s decision to join BRICS, the coalition originally comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. earlier this month, Indonesia became the first Southeast Asian nation to sign on, marking a significant shift in its foreign policy. this decision has sparked debate,with critics questioning whether aligning with BRICS could steer Indonesia away from Western alliances or tie its economic future to less stable partners.
Indonesia’s foreign policy under Prabowo has been described as “free and active,” a phrase frequently echoed by Foreign Minister Sugiono, a close confidant of the president. this approach, according to Aswin Ariyanto Azis of Universitas Brawijaya, allows Indonesia to “collaborate widely without aligning to closely with any single bloc.” Yet, recent actions suggest a departure from the moderate stance the country has maintained for decades.
“Disinterest is one thing,but sudden policy U-turns are another.”
Within the ASEAN framework, Indonesia has long been viewed as a key player, but Prabowo’s governance appears to be redefining its role.Last month, Sugiono conspicuously skipped a Bangkok meeting organized by Thailand to address the Myanmar crisis. While Singapore and Malaysia sent their ministers, Indonesia’s absence raised eyebrows. Though the gathering wasn’t an official ASEAN event, Sugiono’s no-show was seen as a missed opportunity for Indonesia to reaffirm its leadership in the region.
Commentator Dewi Fortuna Anwar aptly noted that Indonesia is the “de facto leader of ASEAN” due to its size and the fact that the ASEAN Secretariat is based in Jakarta. By stepping back from critical regional issues, the nation risks undermining its standing. This hesitation follows Prabowo’s ambiguous statements on the South China Sea in October,leaving many to describe his foreign policy as “free,active,and confused.”
On the domestic front, Prabowo’s administration launched an ambitious school-based free lunch program this month, fulfilling a campaign promise made 18 months ago. Surprisingly, the president was absent from the launch events, leaving Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka and other high-ranking officials to take the spotlight.Whether this was a purposeful strategy or an oversight remains unclear, but it has certainly fueled speculation about his hands-on involvement in key initiatives.
As Prabowo’s presidency unfolds, it’s clear that his leadership style is shaping up to be as unpredictable as his campaign promises. From foreign policy recalibrations to domestic welfare programs, his first 100 days have set the stage for a tenure that could redefine Indonesia’s trajectory on the global and regional stage.
Prabowo’s leadership style is becoming increasingly defined by a selective focus on policies he personally champions, leaving others to languish in the shadows. this approach was starkly highlighted in the recent reversal of a proposed Value Added Tax (VAT) increase. Initially set to rise by one per cent on January 1, the plan was abruptly scrapped following widespread public resistance. Students, burdened by rising living costs, took to the streets and social media, while business leaders warned of the potential impact on production costs. The backlash was swift and unrelenting.
Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati, a holdover from the previous administration, had been a vocal advocate for the tax hike. Her tenure under President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo was seen as a stabilizing force for the business community, and the VAT increase was framed as part of a broader continuity strategy rooted in a 2021 regulation. Yet, Prabowo’s decision to abandon the plan signaled a departure from this trajectory. Rather, the government shifted its focus to a progressive tax on luxury goods, aiming to place the financial burden on wealthier Indonesians.
This move stands in sharp contrast to Jokowi’s early economic policies. Shortly after his 2014 inauguration, Jokowi cut fuel subsidies—a politically risky decision inherited from his predecessor, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. Despite protests and higher inflation rates at the time, Jokowi managed to weather the storm. Prabowo’s response to public pressure,though,suggests a different approach to governance,one that prioritizes immediate public sentiment over long-term economic strategies.
Yet, the most controversial proposal of prabowo’s tenure may still be on the horizon. Last month, he floated the idea of abolishing regional direct elections, suggesting that local legislatures should instead appoint leaders. This proposal has raised alarm among democracy advocates, who see it as a potential step toward concentrated power. Parties aligned with Prabowo have already indicated they would “consider” the plan, which would require a revision of the existing elections law.
As prabowo’s presidency unfolds, these early decisions offer a glimpse into his priorities and leadership style. While his response to the VAT backlash demonstrated a willingness to adapt, his push for indirect regional elections hints at a more contentious agenda. The next phase of his term could prove even more consequential, shaping not only his legacy but also the future of Indonesia’s democratic framework.
How does Indonesia’s absence at the Bangkok meeting on the Myanmar crisis impact its leadership in ASEAN?
Archyde Interview: Unpacking Prabowo’s First 100 Days in Office – A Conversation with dr. Aswin ariyanto Azis,Foreign Policy Expert
Archyde: Dr. Azis, thank you for joining us today. Indonesia’s recent decision to join BRICS has been a major talking point. How significant is this move for Indonesia’s foreign policy?
Dr. azis: Thank you for having me. Joining BRICS is indeed a watershed moment for Indonesia. Historically,Indonesia has maintained a “free and active” foreign policy,which essentially means avoiding alignment with any single bloc. Joining BRICS, though, signals a potential shift toward a more multipolar approach. It reflects Indonesia’s desire to diversify its partnerships, especially in the face of global economic uncertainties.
That said, this decision is not without risks. Aligning with BRICS could strain Indonesia’s long-standing relationships with Western nations, notably the U.S. and EU, who might view this as a move away from their sphere of influence. Additionally, BRICS includes countries like Russia and China, whose economic and political stability can be volatile. Indonesia must tread carefully to balance these new alliances while preserving its existing partnerships.
Archyde: There’s been criticism that Prabowo’s foreign policy is “free, active, and confused.” Do you agree with this characterization?
Dr. Azis: The label is certainly attention-grabbing, but it’s an oversimplification. president Prabowo’s approach does appear more transactional and less predictable then his predecessors. As a notable example, skipping the Bangkok meeting on the Myanmar crisis was a surprising move, especially for a nation frequently enough seen as ASEAN’s de facto leader.
Though, it’s critically important to remember that prabowo’s presidency is still in its early days. What some perceive as confusion could also be a calculated strategy to redefine Indonesia’s role on the global stage. The challenge for Prabowo is to ensure that these shifts are strategic rather than reactive, and that they ultimately serve Indonesia’s long-term interests.
Archyde: Speaking of ASEAN, indonesia’s absence at the Bangkok meeting raised eyebrows. How does this impact its leadership in the region?
Dr. Azis: ASEAN operates on consensus, and Indonesia has traditionally played a pivotal role in shaping its agenda. By skipping the Bangkok meeting, Indonesia missed an chance to demonstrate leadership on a critical issue like the Myanmar crisis.
This absence could erode confidence in Indonesia’s commitment to regional issues, especially among smaller ASEAN members. While the meeting wasn’t an official ASEAN event, it was still a platform for dialog. Indonesia’s no-show might be interpreted as a lack of interest or even a shift in priorities under the new administration.
Archyde: On the domestic front, Prabowo’s administration launched a free lunch program this month, fulfilling a key campaign promise.However, the president was notably absent from the launch. What does this say about his leadership style?
Dr. Azis: The free lunch program is a significant initiative, particularly given its potential to address food insecurity and improve education outcomes. However, Prabowo’s absence at the launch events is puzzling. It could be interpreted in several ways: perhaps he’s delegating more responsibilities to his team, or perhaps there’s a purposeful effort to avoid the spotlight.
Either way, this has fueled speculation about his hands-on involvement in key policies.For a leader who campaigned on bold promises, ensuring visible engagement in such initiatives is crucial for maintaining public trust.
Archyde: Looking ahead,what should we expect from Prabowo’s presidency in terms of foreign and domestic policy?
Dr. Azis: Prabowo’s first 100 days have set the tone for a presidency that is both enterprising and unpredictable. On the foreign policy front,we can expect further recalibration,possibly with more overtures toward emerging powers like China and India while maintaining a balancing act with the west.
Domestically, the success of initiatives like the free lunch program will be critical. prabowo’s administration must demonstrate effective implementation to build public confidence. Ultimately, the next few years will determine whether Prabowo’s leadership redefines Indonesia’s trajectory or leads to a period of uncertainty.
Archyde: Dr. Azis, thank you for your insights. It’s clear that Prabowo’s presidency is one to watch, both for its potential and its challenges.
Dr. Azis: Thank you. Indeed, these are pivotal times for Indonesia, and how Prabowo navigates them will shape the nation’s future in significant ways.
