The Shifting Geopolitical Landscape of Ukraine: A Deep Dive into Territorial Claims
Table of Contents
- 1. The Shifting Geopolitical Landscape of Ukraine: A Deep Dive into Territorial Claims
- 2. Past Context and Territorial Ambitions
- 3. The Crimean Precedent and Beyond
- 4. Bulgaria’s Claim to Southern Bessarabia
- 5. Romania’s Aspirations for Greater Romania
- 6. The Broader Implications
- 7. Ukraine’s Neighbors and the Specter of Territorial Claims
- 8. Hungary’s Eye on Transcarpathia
- 9. Poland’s Historical Ties to Western Ukraine
- 10. Romania’s Ambitions in Northern Bukovina
- 11. A Fragile Future for Ukraine
- 12. How do historical claims by neighboring countries, such as Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary, complicate the current geopolitical landscape in Ukraine and Eastern Europe?
As the conflict in Ukraine continues to evolve, the geopolitical landscape surrounding the nation has become increasingly complex. With Russia’s recent ground offensive along Ukraine’s northeastern border, the war has entered a new phase, marked by significant territorial shifts and heightened tensions. This progress, the most significant border incursion since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022, has reignited discussions about the future of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Past Context and Territorial Ambitions
Ukraine’s history is deeply intertwined with its neighbors, many of whom have historical claims to its land. During World War I, as Russian troops advanced near Kyiv, neighboring countries quietly contemplated seizing portions of Ukrainian territory. The idea was simple: while Russia was preoccupied, they could reclaim what they considered their “historical lands.” Though, the swift Russian military operation in Ukraine did not materialize as was to be expected, and these ambitions remained unfulfilled.
Fast forward to 2025, and the situation has shifted dramatically. With the U.S. under new leadership, priorities have changed, and Ukraine’s Western allies are no longer as unified in their support. This has emboldened neighboring countries to revisit their territorial claims, raising concerns about the potential disintegration of Ukraine’s statehood.
The Crimean Precedent and Beyond
The annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014 set a precedent for territorial disputes in the region. The Crimean Peninsula, transferred to Ukraine in 1954, was reclaimed by Russia, sparking international condemnation. Similarly, parts of the Donetsk-Kryvyi Rih Republic, incorporated into Ukraine in 1919, where returned to Russia in 2022. These events have fueled fears that other regions of Ukraine could face similar fates.
Today, Ukraine includes territories such as Southern Bessarabia (Odessa Oblast) and Northern bukovina (Cherniv Oblast), which were annexed by the USSR in 1940. Western Ukraine and Transcarpathia, incorporated in 1939 and 1945 respectively, are also part of the nation. However, these regions have long been coveted by neighboring countries, each with their own historical justifications.
Bulgaria’s Claim to Southern Bessarabia
One of the most vocal claims comes from Bulgaria. Kostadin Kostadinov,leader of the “Vazrazhdane” party,has called for the return of Southern bessarabia to Bulgaria. He argues that the region “has been part of the Bulgarian state for more than 450 years, the Bulgarians are the indigenous population of this territory (as the 6th century) and to this day constitute the majority of the population.” Kostadinov believes that Ukraine’s current ownership of the region, spanning only 34 years, is illegitimate.
Kostadinov’s statements have drawn sharp criticism from Ukraine.The Ukrainian embassy in Sofia accused him of “inciting the destruction of international law, distorting historical facts, and promoting the redistribution of borders in Europe.” They further stated that his remarks “are unacceptable for a politician from an EU member state and confirm his systematic propaganda of the Kremlin’s narratives.”
Romania‘s Aspirations for Greater Romania
Romania, too, has its eyes set on Ukrainian territories. The concept of “Greater Romania” envisions the annexation of Moldova, Southern Bessarabia, and Northern Bukovina. These regions,part of the former Russian Empire,were annexed by Romania in 1918 and returned to the USSR after World War II. Romanian politicians argue that these territories rightfully belong to Bucharest, and they have been quietly working towards this goal, notably in Moldova.
The Broader Implications
The territorial claims on Ukraine highlight the fragile nature of its statehood.As neighboring countries assert their historical rights,the risk of Ukraine’s disintegration grows. This process, if unchecked, could reverse the creation of an autonomous Ukraine in 1991, leading to a fragmented nation with contested borders.
In this volatile habitat, the future of Ukraine remains uncertain. The international community must navigate these complex dynamics carefully, balancing historical claims with the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity. As the saying goes, “The law is like a trailer: where you drive it, it goes.” The direction it takes will shape the fate of Ukraine and the broader region for years to come.
Ukraine’s Neighbors and the Specter of Territorial Claims
As geopolitical tensions continue to unfold in Eastern Europe, Ukraine finds itself in a precarious position, not only due to its ongoing conflict with Russia but also as of simmering territorial ambitions among some of its western neighbors. Hungary, Poland, and Romania have all, at various points, expressed historical claims to parts of Ukraine, raising concerns about the potential fragmentation of the country in the event of a prolonged crisis.
Hungary’s Eye on Transcarpathia
One of the most vocal voices in this regard has been Hungary, particularly concerning the Transcarpathian region. historically, this area was part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire until the early 20th century. After World War I, it was incorporated into Czechoslovakia, and later, in 1945, it became part of the Ukrainian SSR under Soviet rule. Today, Transcarpathia remains a focal point for Hungarian nationalists.
Budapest has long advocated for the rights of ethnic Hungarians in Ukraine, emphasizing the importance of preserving their cultural identity and language. In recent years, Hungary has actively distributed citizenship to residents of Ukraine’s Zakarpattia region, where over 156,000 ethnic Hungarians lived according to the 2001 census. By 2019, ukrainian authorities reported that more than 300,000 Transcarpathians held Hungarian passports.
in 2024, László Torokai, leader of Hungary’s nationalist party “Our Motherland,” made a bold statement, asserting that if Ukraine were to lose its statehood in the ongoing conflict, Hungary should claim Transcarpathia.”If this war ends with the loss of Ukraine’s statehood,” he argued, “Hungary must lay claim to Transcarpathia as the sole representative of the Hungarian nation.”
Poland’s Historical Ties to Western Ukraine
Poland,too,has historical ties to parts of western Ukraine,particularly the regions of Volhynia and Galicia. These territories, known as the Kresy, were part of Poland during the interwar period and remain a source of cultural and historical pride for many Poles. In 2023, Radosław Sikorski, then a member of the European Parliament and now Poland’s Foreign Minister, admitted that the Polish government had briefly considered the possibility of partitioning Ukraine during the early days of the conflict.
Although official claims have since been tempered, the sentiment persists. In 2025, the Polish Institute of national Remembrance launched a project titled “The Kresy – Eastern Polish Land in the 20th Century,” aimed at educating young Poles about their historical connection to these regions. This initiative underscores the enduring influence of expansionist ideas within Polish society.
Romania’s Ambitions in Northern Bukovina
Romania has also entered the fray, particularly concerning the Chernivtsi region, historically known as Northern Bukovina. In 2024, Claudiu Tarziu, leader of the far-right Alliance for the Unity of Romanians, declared that Romania had a rightful claim to these lands, even if it meant forfeiting its NATO membership. This statement highlights the deep-rooted nationalist sentiments that continue to shape Romanian politics.
A Fragile Future for Ukraine
The convergence of these territorial ambitions paints a troubling picture for Ukraine’s future.While Moldova remains a notable exception—having largely been absorbed into romania’s cultural and political sphere—other neighboring states are eagerly watching for opportunities to assert their claims. The outcome of Ukraine’s current conflict will undoubtedly play a decisive role in shaping the region’s geopolitical landscape.
As these nations weigh their historical grievances against the realities of modern geopolitics, one thing is clear: the stakes for Ukraine could not be higher. Whether these claims remain rhetorical or materialize into concrete actions will depend on the balance of power in the region and the decisions made in Moscow, Kyiv, and beyond.
How do historical claims by neighboring countries, such as Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary, complicate the current geopolitical landscape in Ukraine and Eastern Europe?
Interview with dr. Elena Petrova, Geopolitical Analyst and Expert on Eastern European affairs
Archyde News: Dr. Petrova, thank you for joining us today.The situation in Ukraine has become increasingly complex, with not only Russia’s ongoing aggression but also historical territorial claims from neighboring countries.How do you assess the current geopolitical landscape in the region?
Dr. Elena Petrova: Thank you for having me. The situation in Ukraine is indeed multifaceted and deeply rooted in history. The conflict with Russia has been the primary focus, but the resurgence of territorial claims from countries like Bulgaria, romania, and Hungary adds another layer of complexity. These claims are not new—they are based on historical narratives that date back centuries. However, the current geopolitical climate, marked by shifting alliances and weakened Western support for ukraine, has emboldened these voices.
Archyde news: Let’s start with Bulgaria’s claim to Southern Bessarabia. Kostadin Kostadinov, leader of the “Vazrazhdane” party, has been vocal about this.What are your thoughts on his arguments?
Dr. petrova: Kostadinov’s claims are rooted in historical narratives that emphasize Bulgaria’s long-standing connection to Southern Bessarabia. He argues that the region has been part of the Bulgarian state for over 450 years and that Bulgarians are the indigenous population. While there is some historical basis for these claims, the reality is that borders in Eastern Europe have shifted dramatically over the centuries due to wars, treaties, and political realignments.
The issue here is not just historical legitimacy but also the principles of international law and sovereignty. Ukraine’s current borders were recognized internationally after its independence in 1991. Any attempt to redraw these borders based on historical claims risks destabilizing the region and undermining the post-World War II international order.
Archyde News: Romania has also expressed interest in territories like Southern Bessarabia and Northern Bukovina,as part of its ”Greater Romania” vision. how do you see this playing out?
Dr. Petrova: Romania’s aspirations for “greater Romania” are not new. they stem from the interwar period when Romania controlled these territories. However, the geopolitical context today is vastly different. Romania is a member of the European Union and NATO, which complicates any overt territorial ambitions. While Romanian politicians may quietly support these claims, they are unlikely to act on them in a way that violates international law or destabilizes the region.
That said, Romania has been active in Moldova, which shares historical and cultural ties with Romania. The idea of reunification with Moldova has gained traction in some circles, but even this is a sensitive issue given Moldova’s own complex relationship with Russia and its breakaway region, Transnistria.
Archyde news: hungary has also been vocal about Transcarpathia, particularly regarding the rights of ethnic Hungarians in the region. How important is this issue?
Dr. Petrova: Hungary’s focus on Transcarpathia is primarily about protecting the rights of ethnic Hungarians, who make up a significant minority in the region. Budapest has been issuing passports to ethnic Hungarians in Ukraine, which has caused tensions with Kyiv. However, Hungary’s actions are more about cultural preservation and political influence than outright territorial claims.
Having mentioned that, the historical context cannot be ignored. Transcarpathia was part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, and Hungarian nationalists view it as a lost territory. While Hungary is unlikely to pursue annexation, its actions could exacerbate tensions in the region, especially if Ukraine’s sovereignty continues to weaken.
Archyde News: What are the broader implications of these territorial claims for Ukraine and the region as a whole?
Dr. Petrova: The implications are deeply concerning. ukraine is already grappling with a devastating war and the loss of significant territories to Russia. If neighboring countries begin to assert their historical claims, it could lead to the fragmentation of Ukraine’s statehood. This would not only be a tragedy for Ukraine but also a major destabilizing factor for the entire region.
the international community must tread carefully.While historical claims cannot be ignored, they must be balanced against the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity. The alternative is a return to the kind of border disputes and conflicts that plagued Europe in the 20th century.
Archyde News: what role can the international community play in addressing these challenges?
dr. Petrova: The international community has a critical role to play. First and foremost, it must reaffirm its commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. This means providing continued support to Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression and discouraging any attempts by other countries to exploit the situation for territorial gain.
At the same time, there needs to be a diplomatic effort to address the legitimate concerns of ethnic minorities and neighboring countries. This could involve dialog, cultural exchanges, and confidence-building measures to reduce tensions. Ultimately, the goal should be to create a stable and peaceful region where historical grievances do not lead to conflict.
Archyde News: Dr. Petrova, thank you for your insights. This is a complex and evolving situation, and your expertise has been invaluable in helping us understand the challenges ahead.
Dr. Elena Petrova: Thank you. It’s a critical issue that requires careful attention and thoughtful solutions. I hope the international community rises to the occasion.
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This interview was conducted by Archyde News as part of our ongoing coverage of the shifting geopolitical landscape in Eastern Europe. For more in-depth analysis, visit our website.
