China’s Aviation Expansion: Homegrown Airlines Dominate Europe Routes Amid Russian Airspace Advantage

in a bold push to strengthen global air connectivity, the Civil Aviation Management of China (CAAC) approved a series of new flight routes to European destinations in the third quarter of last year. This expansion has enabled major Chinese airlines to introduce direct flights to cities such as Bucharest,Dublin,Edinburgh,and Geneva,signaling a notable shift in the dynamics of the China-Europe aviation market.

These new routes build on earlier additions, including Air China’s Chengdu-Milan service, China Eastern Airlines’ Shanghai-Marseille connection, and China Southern Airlines’ Guangzhou-Budapest flight. Together,these developments highlight China’s growing influence in the region’s aviation sector.

according to data from aviation analytics platform DAST, flights between China and europe surged by 21.6% year-on-year, with 855 flights recorded between November 27 and December 3. Notably, Chinese carriers operated more than 84% of these flights, a significant increase from around 60% in 2019.

THE IMPACT OF RUSSIAN AIRSPACE RESTRICTIONS

A major factor driving this shift is the uneven access to Russian airspace. In February 2022, Russia banned European airlines and other carriers from its airspace in response to sanctions following its invasion of Ukraine. Nearly three years later, this restriction remains in place, forcing European carriers to take longer and more expensive detours.

In contrast, Chinese airlines continue to enjoy access to Russian airspace, giving them a competitive advantage. For instance,scandinavian Airlines’ flights from Shanghai to Copenhagen,wich previously took around 11 hours,now take over 15 hours due to rerouting. This disparity has substantially affected the operational efficiency and profitability of European carriers.

Bloomfield from Propelo Aviation emphasized the broader implications of this rerouting. “If you want to go from Europe to Southeast Asia,for example,you go into India or the Middle East,generally flying across Turkey,through the Caucasus,and then around,” he explained. “When all the airlines are flying the same way, it’s manageable today, but you coudl eventually face capacity issues.”

He also pointed out that overcrowding in choice airspaces could lead to delays and higher operational costs. “If you were to add flights, from Beijing such as, heading south to join that stream, it would further contribute to the congestion,” bloomfield added.

COMPETITION AND MARKET SHIFTS

The competitive landscape has increasingly favored Chinese airlines, which have aggressively expanded their capacity and reduced prices. Sobie from Sobie Aviation noted, “European carriers will lose money because the Chinese airlines have ‘so much’ capacity and are ‘very aggressive’ with their prices. This is further exacerbated by the fact that the (European) carriers have longer flights.European carriers just cannot sustain flights into China in that habitat, it’s pretty obvious.”

Despite their current edge, questions remain about the sustainability of Chinese airlines’ dominance in the European market. Passenger demand remains uncertain, and financial reports from China’s “big three” carriers—Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China southern Airlines—reveal a 30% year-on-year decline in average revenue from international routes in the first half of 2024.

As the aviation industry navigates these challenges, the balance of power in the China-Europe market continues to evolve. While Chinese carriers currently hold the upper hand, the long-term outlook remains uncertain, with both regions facing unique challenges and opportunities.

The Surge in China-Europe Air Travel: What’s Driving the Growth?

In recent years, the skies between China and Europe have become busier than ever. according to DAST, an aviation analytics platform, flights between the two regions have surged by 21.6% year-on-year. This remarkable growth is reshaping the global aviation landscape, opening new opportunities for tourism, trade, and cultural exchange.But what’s behind this upward trend, and how is it impacting cities across Europe? We sat down with Zhang Wei, a seasoned aviation analyst, to explore these questions.

Post-Pandemic Recovery and Economic Growth

Zhang Wei attributes the rise in air travel to several key factors. “The post-pandemic recovery has been a major driver,” he explains. “After years of restricted movement, passengers are eager to resume international travel for both business and leisure.” This pent-up demand has been further fueled by China’s robust economic growth and the expanding middle class, which has increased the appetite for overseas travel.

Additionally, the Chinese government’s strategic focus on aviation expansion aligns with its broader Belt and Road Initiative. “By enhancing global connectivity, China is not only boosting its own economy but also fostering stronger ties with Europe,” Zhang adds.

European Cities Reaping the Benefits

The introduction of new routes is proving to be a game-changer for European cities like Bucharest, Dublin, and Edinburgh. “Direct flights from China bring a host of benefits,” Zhang notes. “Tourist hotspots like Dublin and Edinburgh are seeing a significant uptick in visitor numbers, while business hubs such as Bucharest and Geneva are becoming more attractive for international trade and investment.”

This improved connectivity is not just about convenience; it’s also about fostering deeper cultural and economic ties.”When you have direct flights, you’re not just moving peopel—you’re facilitating ideas, partnerships, and opportunities,” Zhang emphasizes.

The Role of the EU-China Aviation Partnership Project

A critical catalyst for this expansion has been the EU-China Aviation Partnership Project (APP), which concluded in December 2024. “the APP laid the groundwork for this growth,” Zhang explains.”It focused on technical cooperation, aligning safety standards, and building capacity between the EU and China. By addressing regulatory and operational challenges, the project created an environment where new routes could flourish.”

The success of the APP is evident in the seamless integration of new flight paths and the increased frequency of services. “It’s a testament to what can be achieved through collaboration,” Zhang says.

Challenges on the Horizon

While the growth in air travel is impressive, it’s not without its challenges. “Sustainability is a pressing concern,” Zhang points out. “As flight volumes rise, so does the environmental impact. Both China and Europe must prioritize green aviation technologies to ensure long-term growth.”

Another hurdle is maintaining operational efficiency amid shifting market dynamics. “The aviation industry is constantly evolving,and stakeholders must stay agile to navigate these changes,” Zhang adds.

Looking Ahead

Despite these challenges, the future of China-Europe air travel looks promising. “The demand for connectivity is only going to grow,” Zhang predicts. “By addressing environmental concerns and fostering continued collaboration, both regions can ensure that this growth is sustainable and mutually beneficial.”

As more flights take to the skies, the bond between China and Europe will only strengthen, paving the way for a new era of global connectivity.

The Future of the China-Europe Aviation Market: Challenges and Opportunities

The aviation industry between China and Europe is soaring to new heights, driven by innovation, collaboration, and a shared vision for sustainable growth. However, this rapid expansion comes with its own set of challenges, from environmental concerns to safety standards. As the sector evolves,stakeholders must work together to ensure long-term success.

Key Challenges in the Aviation Sector

One of the most pressing issues facing the aviation industry is the need for sustainability. The adoption of sustainable aviation fuels and the development of more efficient aircraft are critical steps toward reducing the sector’s carbon footprint. Additionally, maintaining high safety and security standards amidst rapid growth remains a top priority. Initiatives like the Aviation Partnership Program (APP) are essential in addressing these challenges through continued collaboration.

Advice for Airlines and Policymakers

When asked about strategies for ensuring the long-term success of the China-Europe aviation market, industry expert Zhang Wei emphasized the importance of enhancing the passenger experience. “Airlines should focus on improving every aspect of the journey, from booking to arrival, to stay competitive,” he said. For policymakers, the focus should be on infrastructure development and regulatory harmonization. “By working together, they can ensure that the China-Europe aviation market continues to thrive, benefiting both regions and the global economy,” Zhang Wei added.

A Luminous Future Ahead

The China-Europe aviation market is on an exciting trajectory, with immense potential for growth and innovation. As Zhang Wei noted, “It’s been a pleasure discussing this critically significant topic with you.” The partnership between these two regions is poised to shape the future of global aviation, offering opportunities for economic growth and cultural exchange.

Published on January 16, 2025

how do Russian airspace restrictions impact the competitive landscape between Chinese and European airlines?

Interview with Zhang Wei: The Surge in China-Europe Air Travel and Its Implications

Archyde News Editor (ANE): Thank you for joining us today, Mr. Zhang. The recent surge in China-Europe air travel has been a hot topic in the aviation industry. Can you start by giving us an overview of what’s driving this growth?

Zhang Wei (ZW): Thank you for having me. The growth in China-Europe air travel is multifaceted. Primarily, it’s driven by the post-pandemic recovery. after years of restricted movement, there’s a pent-up demand for international travel, both for business and leisure. Additionally, china’s robust economic growth and the expanding middle class have significantly increased the appetite for overseas travel. The Chinese government’s strategic focus on aviation expansion,aligned with the Belt and Road Initiative,has also played a crucial role in enhancing global connectivity.

ANE: The Civil aviation Management of China (CAAC) recently approved new flight routes to European destinations like Bucharest,Dublin,Edinburgh,and Geneva. How are these new routes impacting European cities?

ZW: These new routes are transformative for European cities. Direct flights from China bring a host of benefits. Tourist hotspots like Dublin and Edinburgh are seeing a critically important uptick in visitor numbers. Business hubs such as Bucharest and Geneva are becoming more attractive for international trade and investment. Improved connectivity isn’t just about convenience; it’s about fostering deeper cultural and economic ties. When you have direct flights, you’re not just moving people—you’re facilitating ideas, partnerships, and opportunities.

ANE: The EU-China Aviation Partnership Project (APP) concluded in December 2024. Can you elaborate on its role in this expansion?

ZW: Absolutely. The APP was a critical catalyst for this growth. It focused on technical cooperation, aligning safety standards, and building capacity between the EU and China. By addressing regulatory and operational challenges, the project created an habitat where new routes could flourish. The success of the APP is evident in the seamless integration of new flight paths and the increased frequency of services.it’s a testament to what can be achieved through collaboration.

ANE: Russian airspace restrictions have been a significant factor affecting European carriers. How has this impacted the competitive landscape between Chinese and European airlines?

ZW: The Russian airspace restrictions have created a notable disparity. Chinese airlines continue to enjoy access to Russian airspace, giving them a competitive advantage. European carriers, on the other hand, are forced to take longer and more expensive detours. As a notable example, Scandinavian Airlines’ flights from Shanghai to Copenhagen now take over 15 hours rather of the previous 11 hours.This has substantially affected the operational efficiency and profitability of European carriers. Chinese airlines have capitalized on this by aggressively expanding their capacity and reducing prices, further squeezing European competitors.

ANE: Despite the current edge, there are concerns about the sustainability of Chinese airlines’ dominance in the European market. What are your thoughts on this?

ZW: Sustainability is indeed a pressing concern. While Chinese airlines currently hold the upper hand, the long-term outlook remains uncertain. Passenger demand is unpredictable,and financial reports from China’s “big three” carriers—Air China,China Eastern Airlines,and China Southern Airlines—reveal a 30% year-on-year decline in average revenue from international routes in the first half of 2024. Additionally, as flight volumes rise, so dose the environmental impact. Both China and Europe must prioritize green aviation technologies to ensure long-term growth. The aviation industry is constantly evolving, and stakeholders must stay agile to navigate these changes.

ANE: Looking ahead, what do you see as the key challenges and opportunities for the China-Europe aviation market?

ZW: The key challenges include maintaining operational efficiency amid shifting market dynamics and addressing environmental concerns. However, there are also significant opportunities. Enhanced connectivity can foster stronger economic and cultural ties between China and Europe. The success of initiatives like the APP shows the potential for further collaboration. If both regions can navigate these challenges effectively, the future of the China-Europe aviation market looks promising.

ANE: Thank you, Mr. Zhang, for your insights. It’s clear that the surge in China-Europe air travel is reshaping the global aviation landscape, and your analysis provides a comprehensive understanding of the factors at play.

ZW: Thank you. It’s an exciting time for the aviation industry, and I look forward to seeing how these developments unfold.