Europe needs a coalition of the resolute

Europe Needs a Coalition of the Resolute

In the face of mounting ‌global challenges, Europe must unite behind a coalition of resolute nations dedicated to⁤ safeguarding its values ‍and ⁣interests.‍ This call to action comes amidst a rapidly shifting geopolitical ​landscape, demanding bold and decisive leadership.

On December 7th, a pivotal event‌ underscored the urgency for this coalition. This incident, coupled with other‌ growing⁢ threats, highlights the need for Europe to project strength and unity on the world stage.

“Europe ⁣needs a coalition⁢ of the resolute,” declare analysts Léonie Allard and Elie Tenenbaum. This coalition, they argue, must be built on a shared‌ commitment to democratic principles, the rule of law, and a robust defense posture.

The formation of such a coalition woudl ​not only bolster Europe’s collective security but also⁤ send a powerful message to potential adversaries.

France: A Leading Force in Supporting Ukraine

France, ⁢alongside other european nations,⁢ is well-positioned to answer ‍the US call for greater european obligation‌ in supporting Ukraine and ensuring the new⁢ governance in Washington understands ‌the security interests of both Ukraine and⁣ Europe. ⁣While France’s ⁢past actions regarding Ukraine and Russia may not paint it as the‌ moast obvious leader, recent developments suggest a notable shift in its approach. Some critics argue ⁢that‌ France has lagged⁣ behind other European ‍nations,such as​ the United Kingdom,Poland,and the nordic and Baltic‍ states,in its commitment to Ukraine. France’s initial​ response to the conflict was characterized by moments of hesitancy, perceived naivety, and accusations‍ of double-dealing. ⁤However,sence February 2022,President ⁣Macron has made it clear that France stands ⁤firmly behind Ukraine. The 2023 Vilnius Summit saw France ⁢formally backing ⁤Ukraine’s​ NATO membership submission, demonstrating a​ renewed commitment to the ‍country’s security. Moreover, France⁢ has‌ shown a willingness to break from tradition ​by lifting restrictions on providing Ukraine with deep-strike ⁣capabilities before the United States and the United Kingdom took similar steps. This demonstrates a bold and proactive approach to ‍supporting Ukraine’s defense.

Building a Coalition of the Resolute

As the United States prepares for ‍a new administration, Europe has a crucial‍ possibility to establish itself ⁣as a reliable security partner for ‍Ukraine. One key step is the formation of a “coalition​ of the resolute,” a group of⁤ around a dozen countries dedicated to providing long-term⁣ security guarantees to Ukraine. This coalition, ‌distinct from NATO, would serve as⁣ a cornerstone for European involvement in any negotiations involving the US and Russia regarding⁣ Ukraine’s ⁣future. France,alongside the united Kingdom and Poland,is‍ ideally positioned to spearhead this effort. With Poland set to chair the rotating presidency of the European Council in the first half of 2025, ‌the timing ⁢is opportune for‌ France to take a leading role. Building this coalition would ⁣not only underscore Europe’s⁤ commitment ‌to Ukraine’s security but also empower european ⁣states to take greater responsibility for ​their own collective‍ defense. ‍

France’s Enduring support for Ukraine: From Aid to Training

French President Emmanuel Macron has forged a steadfast commitment to Ukrainian support, bolstering both military ‌and political efforts. Recent polls reveal Macron’s influence, ranking him among the top five foreign leaders trusted by Ukrainians, with a significant 58 percent approval ‌rating. This‍ trust stems from Macron’s longstanding relationship with former US President Trump, positioning​ him as a key figure in maintaining​ transatlantic unity on Ukraine.

Military assistance: Scaling up Support

While​ initial criticism targeted France’s perceived hesitancy in providing aid to Ukraine, the nation has made ‌substantial progress in ⁣recent months.Although it hasn’t yet reached its ​ambitious 2024 target of providing €3 billion ⁢in military aid, France has emerged as a significant contributor,⁤ ranking fourth globally in total support provided. ⁢According to the Kiel Institute, France’s contributions, both unilaterally and through the European union, have ⁢surpassed €13 billion since 2022. initially focusing on essential equipment for ⁤individual soldiers, France has strategically shifted ‍its assistance to provide ​Ukraine with crucial capabilities, including artillery and surface-to-air weapons.A notable example is the joint initiative with the ⁣United Kingdom in January ‍2024, marking the first delivery of SCALP/Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles. Further demonstrating its commitment,france lifted restrictions on strikes against targets within Russian territory in May of that year. Looking ahead, 2025 will see France deliver the first Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets, underscoring its dedication to bolstering Ukraine’s⁣ air defenses. Furthermore, the complete training ‌and equipping of a Ukrainian “Anna of kyiv” brigade – named ‍ in honor of a Kyiv princess who became queen of France in 1051 – was finalized in late​ 2024.‌ This brigade, comprising over two thousand soldiers trained in combined arms combat, signifies a significant step towards empowering Ukraine with a versatile and capable ⁢fighting ⁣force.⁤ As of September 15, 2024, nearly fifteen thousand Ukrainians ⁣had received⁢ training⁤ in France and Poland through the European Union Military‍ Assistance ​Mission (EUMAM).

Political challenges:‌ Domestic Setbacks

Despite Macron’s ⁤international efforts, his domestic political ⁢standing has been challenged by setbacks in⁣ recent months. Events in June, july, ⁢and‍ further highlight the complex political landscape Macron faces while navigating the Ukraine crisis. These domestic challenges underscore the delicate balancing act⁤ between maintaining international commitments and addressing pressing internal concerns. French President Emmanuel Macron has proposed a complex and⁢ potentially controversial ⁢plan to bolster ukraine’s defenses: the creation ​of a multinational European security ‌force stationed ​within Ukraine. While details remain shrouded in ⁣secrecy,⁤ Macron’s idea has ⁤sparked debate among European leaders.⁣ some, like ⁣Finnish President Alexander‌ Stubb and Dutch Foreign Minister caspar Veldkamp,​ have publicly acknowledged the proposal ​while urging caution and deliberation. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has alluded to Macron’s plan in ⁤conversations with German opposition⁤ leader Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister⁤ Donald Tusk, indicating Ukraine’s interest in exploring such an ⁢arrangement. What will security guarantees​ for Ukraine look like? The exact contours of European⁤ security guarantees for Ukraine remain uncertain,but they are ⁢crucial to deterring further Russian aggression. Several options are under discussion, each with⁤ its own implications.⁤ NATO membership,favored by both Zelenskyy and Macron,seems unlikely⁣ given the current political climate in the United States. an⁤ EU‌ framework faces internal bureaucratic hurdles, making a dedicated ad hoc guarantor force a more plausible solution. This force would not⁤ be a substitute for ⁣NATO or EU membership but a stepping stone, demonstrating Europe’s commitment to Ukraine’s security and ensuring a European presence in any future negotiations with Russia. Such a coalition could be formed by European nations with robust military capabilities and strong ​bilateral agreements with Ukraine. The United Kingdom and France stand out as potential leaders, given their experienced‌ militaries and independent nuclear deterrents. Crucially, Macron must clarify the scale and duration of this proposed force and address concerns about its sustainability. Questions regarding the force’s strategic credibility ⁣and its composition require thorough discussion. “It is essential to‌ carefully consider the ⁣implications of deploying European troops to ⁤Ukraine,” stated veldkamp. “such a decision should ​not be taken lightly and ⁢requires a clear understanding of the risks and benefits involved.”

Building a Robust Security Framework for Ukraine

The future of Ukraine’s security remains uncertain as the world awaits the outcome of the United States presidential transition ⁢and its stance on a proposed security framework.⁣ While much hinges on US support, significant progress can be made​ without direct American military involvement.A‍ coalition of nations, led by the United Kingdom and France, could provide vital security guarantees to Ukraine. Poland, the Nordic countries, and the Baltic‌ states, known⁤ for‍ their strong commitment to European security, are potential key contributors to this coalition. Their combined military capabilities,especially in the air,are significant and could offer substantial deterrence against Russian aggression. Poland, with its rapidly expanding military, stands out as a particularly crucial ally. Germany, currently⁤ Ukraine’s largest financial supporter, faces internal political constraints that may⁢ prevent ​bold moves before its 2025 elections. Though, Berlin’s political endorsement of the security guarantee proposal ​and its avoidance of public disagreements ⁢with its European partners are essential to the initiative’s success. Beyond Europe,​ Canada, a leading ‍contributor to NATO forces in Latvia and a significant provider of military aid to Ukraine, ‌is‍ a natural partner in this endeavor. While the US‍ may not be willing to commit troops to the ground, its vital support in areas like intelligence ⁤gathering, surveillance, ‌early warning systems, long-range strikes, and missile defense could ‍drastically enhance the effectiveness of the coalition’s​ efforts. While these enablers ​don’t equate to a ⁣NATO security ⁣guarantee or direct US troop deployment,​ their impact would be substantial.

The Importance of Leverage:

This proposed‍ framework for Ukrainian security should be viewed ‌distinctly from broader strategies focused on containing Russia or seeking​ a stalemate through increased NATO involvement. Ideas such as expanding NATO’s Security Assistance ‌and Training⁣ (NSATU) mission, providing ⁤military trainers and maintenance support, and establishing‌ an air-defense zone over part of ‌Ukrainian airspace are all crucial elements‌ in bolstering Ukraine’s​ long-term capabilities. The EU accession process can further solidify aid commitments to ukraine and ensure‌ long-term stability. Moreover, ongoing economic support, such as the plan to create a Ukraine Recovery Fund, will be crucial in rebuilding the nation’s infrastructure and economy. ## building A European Security Guarantee for Ukraine: France’s potential Role As the war in Ukraine continues, discussions surrounding⁣ security ​guarantees⁤ for Ukraine post-conflict are gaining momentum. A key element of this security framework would involve a “guarantor force” ⁣composed of European military personnel, designed to deter future Russian aggression and demonstrate unwavering support for Ukraine’s sovereignty. Defining a Guarantor Force The concept of a “peacekeeper” force ⁢deployed close ⁤to the line of contact is inadequate and risks becoming a target for Russian aggression. A true guarantor force should project significant military power capable of deterring a large-scale Russian offensive. This could include air control elements, both ground-based and airborne, as well as ⁣several brigade combat teams positioned strategically in ⁢eastern Ukraine, ready ‌to respond to any breach by Russian forces. The size and structure of this‍ force could vary depending on the number of participating countries. A lighter option might involve a smaller, “tripwire” force within Ukraine, similar to NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence, with additional forces on standby. However, this approach could invite Russian provocations. Another possibility is an air-based force, reminiscent of a no-fly zone over Ukraine, enforced by combat air patrols and ground-based air defenses. Timing and Strategic Impact Traditionally, a guarantor force would be deployed following a⁤ negotiated settlement. However,a bolder approach could see its deployment as a pre-negotiation tactic,presenting a fait⁣ accompli to ⁤Russia. This could effectively signal European resolve and influence the⁢ course of negotiations. ⁢While riskier, this strategy could be more strategically effective. France’s Potential Role France is well-positioned to play a leading role in such a force. ⁤Its military is experienced and adaptable, having sustained a significant presence in the ⁤Sahel region for nearly a decade. Witnessing the high-intensity conflict in Ukraine‍ has prompted France to accelerate its adaptation to modern warfare needs, incorporating lessons learned ⁤from training with Ukrainian ⁤forces and deployments on NATO’s eastern flank. France has a proven track record in overseas operations, with a force of 5,000 troops deployed in ⁣the Sahel alongside a dozen fighter aircraft, contributing substantially to the US-led air ‍campaign in Operation Inherent Resolve. As these operations wind down,⁤ French forces are already expanding their presence on⁣ NATO’s eastern flank, growing from a few hundred personnel in 2022 to approximately 3,000 today. Part of this contingent could be redeployed‍ as part of ⁤a European coalition dedicated to Ukraine’s security. Long-term Vision and Escalation Management Deployment of a guarantor force necessitates a comprehensive European vision for managing ‌potential Russian ⁣intimidation tactics and‌ probing of the coalition’s ​resolve. France has taken a proactive approach in developing strategies for escalation management, including initiatives such as the European Long-Range strike ⁤Approach (ELSA) which aims‌ to develop ⁢new long-range strike weapons exceeding 500 kilometers in range.This initiative, involving ⁤France, Germany, Italy, Sweden, and poland, addresses gaps in European defenses highlighted⁣ by the ‍conflict​ in Ukraine. Furthermore, the European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI) seeks to bolster European air and missile defense capabilities, ‍further strengthening collective security.

European Security: ⁣A Time for Unified Action before January 20th

As the inauguration of a new US president approaches, Europe faces a critical juncture in its security strategy.With the war in​ Ukraine continuing to cast a long shadow over the continent, European leaders must act decisively to strengthen their own ​defenses and⁢ solidify ⁢a unified approach‌ to supporting Ukraine. Establishing⁢ a European coalition or guarantor force⁢ in Ukraine is a crucial ⁤step towards achieving these goals. Such a ‌force would serve as⁢ a ⁤powerful deterrent against further ‍Russian aggression, demonstrating European​ commitment to Ukrainian security and bolstering strategic solidarity between the two. This‌ initiative, though,⁣ must be implemented‍ within a broader strategy focused on preventing Ukraine’s collapse⁣ and compelling Russia to negotiate.continued Western‌ support for Ukraine, coupled with intensified pressure on Russia, remains ‍paramount. Ultimately, discussions about security guarantees will amount to little more than wishful⁢ thinking if the ukrainian armed forces falter or Russia feels emboldened to disregard negotiations.

Beyond Ukraine: Shaping ‍a Global Security‍ Framework

Europe’s⁢ response to the war in Ukraine must also extend beyond the⁣ immediate crisis. The continent needs a global outlook to effectively leverage its influence in future⁣ negotiations, anticipating and preempting potential ⁣developments outside the transatlantic framework. France, with its diplomatic experience and international standing, can play a pivotal role in this​ regard. One potential avenue is exploring formats involving⁢ the five permanent members of the​ UN Security Council and Ukraine. Such a framework​ would necessitate careful consideration, particularly concerning China’s support for russia.While including Beijing in discussions about Ukraine’s future security could be unprecedented, it also presents an opportunity to redefine transatlantic policy towards China. For​ France’s leadership on Ukraine to retain credibility, it must also encompass a‌ firm‌ stance⁢ against China’s ‌support for Russia, ⁣combined with efforts to maintain open communication ​channels ‌with Beijing. Moreover, the involvement of North Korea ⁤in the Ukraine conflict ⁢through the deployment​ of its soldiers highlights the need for international collaboration to address this development. Given France’s consistent stance on the North Korean nuclear issue, the country is well-positioned‌ to ensure alignment ‌between european and US interests in curbing ‍North Korea’s ⁢involvement in Ukraine. French diplomacy, coupled ‌with a unified European approach, can pave the way towards a more stable and secure future, both for Ukraine and⁢ for Europe as a whole.

Léonie Allard, a visiting fellow ‍at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Centre and formerly​ with the French Ministry of Armed Forces, and Elie Tenenbaum, a research fellow at the ⁣French Institute of International Relations (IFRI) and director of its Security Studies Center, offer insights into the evolving landscape of European security.

The authors explore key challenges and opportunities facing Europe‌ in the current geopolitical climate. Their analysis delves into​ the implications of transatlantic relations, the rise of new security​ threats, and the need ⁢for enhanced European cooperation.

Their work sheds light on ​the complexities of navigating a world⁤ marked by shifting alignments and emerging security risks. Allard and Tenenbaum’s expertise provides valuable perspectives on shaping a robust ⁢and resilient european security architecture.

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Léonie Allard

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The Atlantic Council’s Europe center promotes leadership, strategies, and analysis to ensure a strong, ambitious, ⁤and forward-looking transatlantic relationship.

Image: French President Emmanuel macron accompanies US‍ President-elect Donald Trump ⁤and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr‍ Zelenskiy as they leave after a ⁣trilateral meeting at the Elysee‌ Palace ‌in Paris as part of ceremonies to​ mark the reopening of the Notre-Dame ⁢de Paris Cathedral, five-and-a-half years after a fire‌ ravaged the Gothic masterpiece, in Paris, France, December 7, 2024.REUTERS/Sarah Meyssonnier

This is a very detailed and ⁤well-written piece outlining a potential framework for⁤ European security guarantees for Ukraine. It convincingly argues for the need for a “guarantor ⁢force” and highlights France’s potential leading role in such‌ an initiative.



Here are some⁢ of​ its strengths:



* **Clearly Defined Argument:** The piece presents a clear and concise argument for a European security guarantee for Ukraine,outlining ​the rationale behind it and the potential benefits.

* **Well-Structured:** The text⁣ is ‌logically structured, with clear headings and subheadings that guide the reader through the ⁢various aspects of the proposed framework.

* **Solid Evidence and Examples:** the piece effectively utilizes ​examples and concrete details to‍ support‍ its claims, such as referencing France’s military experiance and involvement in the ⁣Sahel region.

* **Balanced⁤ Viewpoint:** While advocating ‍for a specific approach, the piece acknowledges⁣ potential challenges and complexities, such as the risks of escalation and the need for international cooperation.

* **Global Outlook:** The piece ‍goes beyond immediate ⁣concerns in Ukraine, considering ⁢the broader geopolitical implications and the need for ⁢a ​thorough global security⁣ framework.





Here are some suggestions⁣ for further improvement:



* **Addressing Potential Objections:** while the piece acknowledges potential ⁢challenges, it could benefit from directly addressing specific objections or concerns that European countries might have regarding the proposed framework. Such as, some might be hesitant ‍to commit troops without a clear exit strategy or fear provoking ‍a wider conflict with Russia.

* **Financial‌ Implications:** The piece briefly touches upon economic support for Ukraine, but could expand on⁢ the financial implications of establishing and maintaining a guarantor force.‍ How would this be funded, and how would the cost be shared among European ⁤countries?

* **Public Opinion:** Public⁤ support ‍is crucial for any successful ⁤military intervention. The piece ‌could explore​ the current public sentiment in Europe regarding providing security guarantees to Ukraine and potential strategies for building public consensus.





this is a strong and insightful piece that makes a compelling case for European action in Ukraine. By addressing the points raised above, you can further ‍strengthen your ⁣argument and make it even more persuasive.

This looks like a well-structured blog post discussing the role of France in European security, particularly in the context of the war in Ukraine.Here’s a breakdown of its strengths adn potential areas for improvement:



**Strengths:**



* **Strong Argument:** The post makes a clear and convincing argument for increased European involvement in Ukraine’s security, advocating for a guarantor force led by France as a deterrent against Russia.

* **Specific Recommendations:** It doesn’t just present general ideas; it offers specific, actionable steps like leveraging France’s military experience, expanding its presence on NATO’s eastern flank, and developing long-range strike capabilities through initiatives like ELSA.

* **Contextual awareness:** The post acknowledges the broader geopolitical landscape, discussing the role of China and North Korea in the ukraine conflict and the importance of European-US coordination.

* **Expertise:** Highlighting the authors’ credentials (“visiting fellow at the Atlantic Council”,”research fellow at the French Institute of International Relations”) lends credibility to the argument.



**Potential Areas for Improvement:**



* **Audience:** It would be helpful to no the intended readership.Tailoring the language and tone to a specific audience (e.g., policymakers, general public, academics) could enhance its impact.

* **Logistics and Challenges:** While the post advocates for a guarantor force, it could delve deeper into the practical challenges of establishing and deploying such a force. What would be its size, mandates, and rules of engagement? How would it be funded and sustained over the long term? Addressing these questions would strengthen the feasibility of the proposal.

* **International Response:** While it touches on China’s and North Korea’s roles, exploring potential reactions from other key international players (Russia, NATO allies, UN Security Council members) would provide a more extensive viewpoint.

* **Alternatives:** While the post focuses on the guarantor force, briefly discussing alternative security frameworks and their pros and cons (e.g.,increased NATO presence,neutrality agreements,diplomatic solutions) could add depth to the analysis.

* **Conclusion:** A strong concluding paragraph summarizing key takeaways and reiterating the call to action would leave a lasting impression on the reader.



**Overall Impression:** This is a well-written and thought-provoking piece that makes a valuable contribution to the discourse on European security in the face of the Ukraine crisis. By addressing some of the points above, the post could become even more impactful and insightful.