Ukraine’s Shadow War Reaches Moscow’s Doorstep
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
Ukraine’s Spy Agencies: Trust and Turmoil
Ukraine’s intelligence agencies,the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and the Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU),have garnered both public admiration and internal criticism in recent years. The GRU, in particular, enjoys high levels of public trust, a fact that has reportedly caused friction with President Zelensky’s management. Previously, the GRU faced international scrutiny in 2018 when it staged the fake assassination of Russian journalist Arkady babchenko in Kyiv. The operation, intended to thwart a Kremlin-backed plot against Babchenko, sparked global ridicule. Despite controversy, the United States has viewed the GRU as a valuable partner. “We figured the GRU was a smaller, more nimble organization where we could have more influence,” a former U.S. intelligence official said. “GRU was our little baby.” However, US officials emphasized that the CIA’s role in Ukraine was limited to intelligence gathering, not targeted killings.Public Trust and Internal Tensions
Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the GRU, currently enjoys the second-highest level of public trust in Ukraine, according to a recent poll by the Center for Social Monitoring in Kyiv. General Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s ambassador to Britain, holds the top spot. President Zelensky himself ranks third. However, reports emerged last month suggesting that Zelensky was considering replacing Budanov amidst growing tension with Andriy Yermak, the president’s influential chief of staff. Yermak,sources say,is dissatisfied with Budanov’s public profile. Budanov, however, dismissed these reports as disinformation. These tensions follow allegations from former SBU officer Ivan Supak who, speaking to Radio NV, claimed there were concerns within the intelligence community about “unnecessary deaths of agents during not very well-planned, media-led operations.” These operations,supak alleged,were orchestrated by the GRU.## Archyde Interview: Ukraine’s Shadow War Reaches Moscow’s Doorstep
**Host:** Welcome back to *Archyde Talks*. Today, we’re discussing the escalating shadow war between Russia and Ukraine, which has recently spilled over onto Russian soil itself. To shed light on this alarming trend, we have renowned security analyst Dr. [Alex Reed Name], joining us today from [Alex Reed Location]. Dr. [Alex Reed Name],welcome to the show.
**Dr. [Alex Reed Name]:** Thank you for having me.
**Host:** The recent assassination of Russian General Igor Kirilov in Moscow, attributed to Ukrainian intelligence, has sent shockwaves through Russia. What does this event signify in the context of the broader conflict?
**Dr. [Alex Reed Name]:** This latest attack underscores the increasingly brazen and effective nature of Ukraine’s covert operations deep inside Russian territory. It’s a clear exhibition of Kyiv’s resolve and capability to strike at the heart of the Kremlin’s power structure, even while actively defending against a large-scale invasion.
**Host:**General Kirilov’s death follows a pattern of assassinations and targeted killings of Russian military figures, propagandists, and Kremlin-aligned individuals. How widespread is this campaign, and who do you believe is behind it?
**Dr. [Alex Reed Name]:** As you mentioned, there’s been a disturbing trend of such incidents. While publicly claiming responsibility for recent attacks like kirilov’s, Ukrainian authorities have remained relatively tight-lipped about the full extent of these operations. It’s widely believed that the SBU, Ukraine’s security service, and its military intelligence branch, the GUR, are heavily involved.
**Host:** How has the Kremlin and Russian public reacted to these incidents?
**dr. [Alex Reed Name]:** The Kremlin has condemned these attacks as acts of terrorism and vowed retaliation. However, the public reaction has been more nuanced. While pro-war voices are expressing anger and fear, others are questioning the security situation within Russia and the effectiveness of the government’s responses.
As evidenced by the Telegram channel ‘Rybar’, even pro-war voices within Russia are acknowledging the vulnerability of the Russian state and the potential for continued attacks. This fear and uncertainty could potentially impact public morale and sow further divisions within Russian society.[[1](https://cadmusjournal.org/files/report-to-waas/report_on_war_in_ukraine_july_2022.pdf)]
**Host:** Dr. [Alex Reed Name], what does the future hold for this shadow war? Do you expect these covert operations to continue, and could they escalate further?
**Dr. [Alex Reed Name]:** It’s difficult to predict the future trajectory of these operations. Though, given Ukraine’s demonstrated capabilities and its determination to resist Russian aggression, it’s likely that these covert actions will continue.The effectiveness of these operations will depend on a
number of factors, including continued intelligence support from Western allies and the ability of Ukrainian operatives to avoid detection and capture within Russian territory.
**Host:** Thank you,Dr. [Alex Reed Name], for sharing your valuable insights on this complex and evolving situation.
## Archyde interview: Ukraine’s Shadow War Reaches Moscow’s Doorstep
**Host:** Welcome back to *Archyde Talks*. Today, we’re discussing the escalating shadow war between Russia and Ukraine, which has recently spilled over onto Russian soil itself. To shed light on this alarming trend,we have renowned security analyst Dr. [Alex Reed Name],joining us today from [Alex Reed Location]. Dr. [Alex Reed Name], welcome to the show.
**Dr. [Alex Reed Name]:** Thank you for having me.
**Host:** The recent assassination of Russian General Igor Kirilov in Moscow, just a stone’s throw from Red Square, serves as a stark reminder that even as Russian forces advance on the battlefield, Ukraine’s reach extends far beyond the front lines. This targeted attack, attributed to Ukrainian intelligence, highlights Kyiv’s ability to strike at the heart of Russia’s power.
Dr. [Alex Reed Name],considering the recent string of assassinations targeting Russian military figures,propagandists,and Kremlin-aligned individuals,how meaningful is this shift in Ukraine’s strategy?
**Dr. [Alex Reed Name]:** This shift is incredibly significant.It showcases Ukraine’s growing capability and willingness to conduct covert operations deep within Russian territory.These attacks go beyond symbolic gestures; they demonstrate Ukraine’s ability to inflict pain and disrupt Russian leadership and morale. It’s clear that Ukraine is now actively engaged in a multi-front war,targeting both the physical battlefield and the heart of the Russian power structure.
**Host:** Igor Kirilov’s death was just the latest in a series of clandestine operations targeting individuals aligned with the Kremlin. What can you tell us about the Ukrainian agencies responsible for these operations, and how effective have they been?
**Dr. [Alex Reed Name]:** Primarily, we’re looking at the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and the Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU). both agencies have undergone significant restructuring and revitalization with substantial support from international partners, notably the CIA. The GRU, in particular, has earned praise for its agility and effectiveness in conducting covert operations.
the success of these operations raises questions about the level of penetration Ukraine has achieved within Russia. How challenging is it for Ukraine to recruit informants and build networks within Russia, given the tight security and surveillance apparatus established by the Kremlin?
**Dr. [Alex Reed Name]:** Recruiting within Russia is undoubtedly a daunting task. However, it’s clear that Ukraine has managed to cultivate a network of operatives and sympathizers within Russia. The SBU’s historical ties to the Soviet-era KGB, combined with the significant discontent brewing within Russia due to the war, likely plays a role in facilitating recruitment.
**Host:** Public trust in Ukraine’s intelligence agencies is currently high. While the GRU enjoys wide public approval, there are reports of tension within the Ukrainian government regarding the agency’s role and visibility. Can you elaborate on these tensions?
**Dr. [Alex Reed Name]:** Yes, President Zelensky’s office has reportedly expressed concerns about the GRU’s increasingly prominent public profile. Some officials within the government feel that the agency’s focus on media-driven operations might be compromising operational security and contributing to unnecessary casualties.
**Host:** what are the implications of this escalating shadow war? Does this signal a new phase in the conflict, one that moves beyond conventional warfare?
**Dr. [Alex Reed Name]:** We are witnessing a significant escalation in the conflict. This shadow war highlights the devastating ripple effects of Russia’s invasion and underscores the desperation and resolve on both sides. It’s increasingly evident that this conflict will not be confined to the traditional battlefields of eastern Ukraine.
**Host:**
dr. [Alex Reed Name], thank you for sharing your valuable insights with us today. This has been a fascinating and chilling glimpse into the hidden battles being waged within the shadows of this ongoing war.
**Dr.[Alex Reed Name]:** My pleasure. It’s essential to recognize the complexities and far-reaching consequences of this conflict.
