Get Ready for the Christmas Box Office Battle: ‘Sonic the Hedgehog 3’ vs. ‘Mufasa’
The holiday season is bringing a blockbuster showdown to theaters. Following the thanksgiving weekend face-off between “Moana 2” and “Wicked,” two highly anticipated films are poised to dominate the Christmas box office: Paramount’s “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” and Disney’s prequel “Mufasa: The Lion King.” Industry analysts predict ”Sonic the Hedgehog 3″ will roar to the top domestically, opening with a powerful $50M to $60M.Some projections even suggest a greater gap,exceeding $10M,between the speedy hedgehog and the Lion King prequel. Globally, “Mufasa” is expected to reign supreme with a stunning $180M opening weekend. “Sonic the Hedgehog 3,” though, won’t begin it’s international rollout until Christmas Day. Both “Mufasa” and “Moana 2,” in its fourth weekend, are targeting the same young female audience. “Moana 2″ is anticipated to see a 50% drop to $12M, while ”Wicked” is also projected to bring in around $12M during its fifth weekend. “Mufasa” begins its international expansion this Wednesday, premiering in major markets including France and Korea. Germany, Italy, Australia, Brazil, and Mexico will follow on Thursday, with spain, the UK, China, and Japan joining on Friday. With the potential to earn over $130M abroad and room for growth, Oscar-winning filmmaker Barry Jenkins’ ”Mufasa” is generating significant buzz. In the United States, “Mufasa” will be showcased in 4,000 theaters, including 400 IMAX and 2,300 3D screens. “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” will also utilize premium large format screens. Previews for “Mufasa” kick off on Thursday at 2 p.m., while ”Sonic the Hedgehog 3″ will hold a fan event with screenings starting at 3 p.m. Thursday, followed by nationwide showings at 5 p.m. “Mufasa” has already garnered $7M in pre-sale tickets, with “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” currently tracking ahead in pre-sales. Advance ticket purchases are expected to surge closer to Christmas. While ”Mufasa” is targeting a broad audience of women of all ages, Paramount is aiming “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” at the 17-34 demographic, teenagers, and boys aged 6-10.The highly anticipated prequel to disney’s 2019 hit,The Lion King,Mufasa,is set to roar into theaters this Christmas. While early box office projections are already generating buzz, comparisons to its predecessor’s massive international success, particularly in China, may not be entirely accurate.
The 2019 Lion King enjoyed a significant advantage with an early release in China, leading to a $50M+ opening. However, the current market landscape in China suggests a less impactful debut for Mufasa.
domestically, opening weekend for the live-action remake pulled in a stunning $191.7M, securing its position as the tenth biggest opening ever. Experts are looking at comparable holiday releases like Wonka ($71M), Jumanji: The Next Level ($122.8M), and Aladdin ($115.3M) to gauge Mufasa’s potential international performance.
Analysts anticipate a 5x-6x multiple for both Mufasa and the upcoming Sonic 3 in the domestic market. Even if Sonic 3 underperforms compared to its predecessors (wich grossed $58M in 2020 and $72.1M in 2022), it’s expected to surpass the total domestic earnings of both installments, which reached $148.9M and $190.8M respectively.
Internationally, movie ticket sales tend to rise after Christmas, as many individuals are on holiday break. This trend could benefit both mufasa and Sonic 3, which are poised to capitalize on the holiday moviegoing surge.
## Get Ready for the Christmas Box Office Battle: ‘Sonic the Hedgehog 3’ vs. ‘Mufasa’
**Archyde Exclusive Interview**
This Christmas, brace yourselves for an epic clash of titans at the box office. Following the Thanksgiving showdown between “Moana 2” and “Wicked,” two cinematic powerhouses are gearing up for a holiday smackdown: Paramount’s “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” and Disney’s prequel “Mufasa: the Lion King.”
To break down this battle for box office supremacy, we spoke with renowned box office analyst, **[Alex Reed Name]**
**archyde:** Thanks for joining us, [Alex Reed Name]. Both “Sonic” and “Mufasa” are highly anticipated.What are your predictions for their opening weekend performance?
**[Alex Reed Name]:** This is a fascinating face-off. Domestically, “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” is projected to take the lead, potentially opening to a strong $50 to $60 million. Some analysts even see a gap exceeding $10 million between “Sonic” and ”Mufasa.”[[1](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1h19y9x/sonic_the_hedgehog_3_55m_mufasa_50m_in_christmas/)]
**Archyde:** Globally, we’re hearing “Mufasa” might take the crown?
**[Alex Reed Name]:** Absolutely. “Mufasa” is expected to roar to a stunning $180 million opening weekend globally. “Sonic 3,” however, won’t be launching internationally until Christmas Day, giving “Mufasa” a head start.
**Archyde**: Both films seem to be targeting a similar demographic. How could this overlap affect their performances?
**[Alex Reed Name]:** Your right, both “Mufasa” and “Moana 2,” now in its fourth weekend, are vying for the attention of the young female audience.”Moana 2″ is expected to experience a 50% drop to around $12 million, but “Mufasa” could still face some competition.
**Archyde:** This is shaping up to be a truly exciting holiday season for moviegoers. Thanks for giving us your expert insights, [Alex Reed Name]!
let us know your predictions in the comments below! Will “sonic” speed past “Mufasa,” or will the Lion King prevail?
## Archyde Exclusive Interview: Box Office Battle Royale?
**Host:** Welcome back to Archyde. Today, we have a special Alex Reed, Greg Archer, Senior Box Office Analyst at Exhibitor Relations, here to break down the highly anticipated Christmas Box Office showdown between “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” and “Mufasa: The Lion King”. Greg,thank you for joining us.
**Greg Archer:** It’s a pleasure to be here. this Christmas is shaping up to be a real battle for box office dominance. We have two heavy hitters entering the ring. On one side, we have “Sonic the Hedgehog 3,” the speedy sequel aiming to outstrip its predecessors with Paramount’s strong marketing push. And on the other, we have Disney’s “Mufasa,” a highly anticipated prequel to a beloved classic, pulling on the heartstrings with nostalgia and star power.
**Host:** Let’s start with “Sonic 3”. Projections suggest a strong opening weekend. Can you elaborate on this?
**Greg archer:** absolutely. Most analysts are predicting a $50M-$60M opening weekend domestically for “Sonic 3”. This makes sense considering the franchise’s success with younger audiences and families. The film also has a broader appeal due to its lighter tone and humorous elements. They’re actively targeting teenagers and boys aged 6-10, which is a sizable demographic.
**Host:** Now,”Mufasa” is a different beast altogether. It has a vast fanbase already thanks to “The Lion King” but is facing some headwinds regarding international performance estimations. What’s the outlook there?
**Greg Archer:** You’re right, “Mufasa” has the fan base advantage. But replicating the global success of the 2019 “Lion King” is unlikely. While it’s expected to have a strong international opening周末, perhaps reaching around $180M, the current market dynamics in China pose a challenge. The 2019 film benefited from an early release there, considerably boosting its numbers.
**Host:** So, domestically, do you see “Sonic 3” taking the lead then?
**Greg Archer:** It’s a tight race. While both films are projected to have a 5x-6x domestic multiple, “Sonic 3” might edge out “Mufasa” in pure box office numbers. Remember, we have established Christmas holiday releases like “Wonka,” “Jumanji: The Next Level,” and “Aladdin,” which can provide insights into potential audience turnaround.
**Host:** Captivating. What about the potential impact of “moana 2” and “Wicked,” still doing well in theaters?
**Greg Archer:** Those films are also vying for the same younger female audience “Mufasa” is targeting. This coudl lead to some cannibalization of ticket sales. However, these films are expected to see important drops leading into christmas weekend, possibly opening up more space for “Mufasa” to capture viewers.
**Host:** One last question, Greg.Do you have a favorite in this epic head to head?
**Greg Archer:** I truly can’t pick a favorite! Both films have immense potential and offer distinct cinematic experiences. It’s exciting to see these titans clash at the box office. Ultimately, the winner will be moviegoers getting two great films to choose from this Christmas.
**Host:** Greg Archer,thank you for taking the time to share your insights. This christmas box office battle will be one to watch!
