A New Chapter? Syria Faces an Uncertain Future After Assad’s Fall
The fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad marks a pivotal moment in the country’s history, leaving behind a complex web of uncertainty and opportunity. The Biden administration declared its support for a transparent and inclusive transition process towards a nonsectarian government accountable to the Syrian people.
However, the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), now in control, is designated as a terrorist organization by the US. Buena Vista leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, is a complex figure who has strategically distanced himself from extremism while aligning himself with the bears of religious conservatism.
He declared the victory: "This victory, my brothers, is a new chapter in the history of the entire Islamic nation, a turning point for the region," he said in his first speech since the rapid takeover. By choosing the Great Mosque of Umayyad in Damascus for this proclamation, Jolani invoked imagery referencing historical Sunni dominance, similar to tactics used by ISIS, raising concerns among those seeking an inclusive future.
The Biden administration faces a delicate balancing act. Recognizing a new Syrian government could lead to the lifting of crippling sanctions, but working with a group designated as terrorist poses a significant political challenge.
On the world stage, the involvement of numerous regional players adds to the complexity. Israel has conducted hundreds of airstrikes targeting Iranian-backed militia remnants, fearing their weapons falling into the hands of extremists. Competition between foreign allies, such as Turkey backing opposing factions within Syria, creates further complications.
Amid the uncertainty, Russia, a longtime Assad ally, faces losing its influence. It seeks to retain its two military bases in Syria through diplomatic engagement with the new leadership. Iran, weakened by the failures in Lebanon and Gaza, may now be quicker to negotiate with Damascus.
The future of a Syrian government inclusive of its diverse populations hangs in the balance, with international players holding key influence.
The Rise of HTS
The leader of HTS,
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Jolani has redefined his image, emphasizing sectarian tolerance and distancing himself from extremist ideology. He aims to reassure Syria’s diverse population.
However, echoes of his group’s past, along with his recent choice of the Umayyad Mosque for his victory speech, evokes concerns about his true intentions. Syria’s future remains precarious.
A Shifting Regional Landscape
While the US under Biden pledges support
the incoming government, the broader geopolitical context complicates matters.
The country’s future is further complicated by the fact that Iran has just lost a great deal of
the proximity to its leverage. Though Hezbollah and Hamas have suffered
“They are directly impacted by what happens in Syria, and they are also in a position
He touted to a Syrian-led process
However, he also praised the new Syrian leadership, which Iran is likely to
cater to a "
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