The Sudden Fall of a Key Ally: What Russia’s Syria Retreat Means
For nearly a decade, Russian firepower propped up Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Now, after extraordinary events unfolded over the last 24 hours, it appears Moscow’s calculated gamble has backfired. Damascus has fallen. Assad’s allies are questioning whether Russia’s purpose in Syria was worth the loss.
Russian news agencies and state TV reported that Putin granted the Assad family asylum “on humanitarian grounds.”
News of Assad’s flight to Moscow came as Russian officials insisted they were closely monitoring the deteriorating situation. It’s a sudden and dramatic downfall, with Moscow critically powerless to prevent it.
The End of a Decades-Long Alliance:
The collapse of the Assad regime deals a significant blow to Russia’s prestige. Sending thousands of troops to Syria in 2015 had been lauded as necessary to solidify Russia’s place as a truly global power. It represented a challenge to the West’s dominance away from former Soviet spaces. Initially, the move seemed successful. In 2017, President Putin declared “mission accomplished” at the Russian Hmeimim air base in Syria.
Putin’s gamble was increasingly questioned, as reports surfaced revealing Russia Air Force strikes, aimed at propping up Assad’s inevitably ill-fated campaign, resulting in significant civilian casualties. The Russian Ministry invited international media to witness the operation firsthand, a clear attempt to downplay Russia’s involvement while promoting their military operation
But behind the facade of “mission accomplished” a larger question appeared: what would become of Russia’s key investments in Syria?
Strategic Calculations
After securing 49-year leases on key installations, the Hmeimim air base and the Tartous naval base, Russia acquired its foothold in the eastern Mediterranean. The bases became hubs for transporting military contractors in and out of Africa
However, the situation in Syria is strikingly different.
While the Kremlin formally insists it is “following the dramatic events with extreme concern”.
Many understand what this really means: a rapid withdrawal is underway and Russia will now focus on its immediate goals – safeguarding its military assets in Syria
## Looking For Scapegoats
Russian state media continued its narrative depicting himself as a skilled and hands-off, suggesting their commitment hinges on miscalculations and inaction of Assad’s military. On Sunday night showed one of Moscow’s flagship weekly news
“Everyone could see that the hottest points in Syria,” anchor Yevgeny Kiselev said. “But in Aleppo, for example, positions were given up virtually without a fight
He continued, claiming to have always hoped for “reconciliation,” but a refocusing on an even clearer message: “We are not indifferent to Syria, but Russia’s priority is Russia’s own security – what is happening. ”
Ultimately, there’s a fall
What will be the long-term consequences of Russia’s retreat from Syria on its geopolitical standing and influence in the Middle East?
## Segment: The Sudden Fall of a Key Ally: What Russia’s Syria Retreat Means
**(Intro Music)**
**Host:** Joining us tonight to dissect the dramatic turn of events in Syria is Dr. Lena Petrova, a Senior Fellow at the Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies. Dr. Petrova, thank you for being here.
**Dr. Petrova:** My pleasure.
**Host:** We’ve seen some incredible developments in the past 24 hours. After nearly a decade of supporting Bashar al-Assad, Russia appears to be abandoning its ally as Damascus falls. Can you help our viewers understand what led to this sudden shift?
**Dr. Petrova:** It’s indeed a stunning turn of events. Russia’s intervention in Syria back in 2015 was largely seen as a success story initially. Putin was able to project military power abroad, support a key ally, and challenge Western influence in the region. However, the situation has clearly become untenable for Moscow. [[1](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/08/world/europe/russia-syria-assad-putin.html)]suggests that Russia may be seeking accommodation with new forces in Syria, indicating a significant change in strategy.
**Host:** The news reports speak of Assad seeking asylum in Moscow. Is this confirmation of a complete withdrawal from Syria by Russia?
**Dr. Petrova:** It certainly suggests a major scaling back of Russian involvement. Granting asylum to the Assad family is a significant move, both symbolically and practically. It indicates that Moscow may be accepting the reality that Assad’s regime is no longer viable. However, I wouldn’t call it a complete withdrawal just yet. Russia still has strategic interests in Syria, including maintaining a naval base in Tartus.
**Host:** This retreat represents a major blow to Russia’s prestige and strategic ambition. How will this impact Putin’s standing both domestically and internationally?
**Dr. Petrova:** This is a crucial question. The Syria intervention was largely seen as a triumph for Putin domestically, bolstering his image as a strong and decisive leader. This sudden reversal of fortune will undoubtedly lead to questions and criticism, especially given the human and economic cost of the intervention. Internationally, this will likely weaken Russia’s position. It could also embolden Moscow’s adversaries, particularly in the Middle East.
**Host:** Dr. Petrova, your insights are invaluable in understanding these complex developments. Thank you for shedding light on this crucial issue.
**Dr. Petrova:** My pleasure.
**(Outro Music)**
