Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s Advance Fuels Speculation About Arms Sources and Shifting Power Dynamics in Syria
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and its allied factions are making rapid territorial gains in Syria, raising questions about their increasingly sophisticated weaponry and the potential emergence of a new power dynamic. On Friday, the group, dubbed HTS, advanced on Homs, Syria’s third-largest city. At the same time, government forces lost control of areas in Deir ez-Zor Governate to Kurdish forces.
These developments underscore the complexity of the Syrian war. A senior researcher at the New America Foundation, Douglas Oliphant, notes that HTS possesses weaponry unusual for this conflict, prompting speculation about the source of their arms. While lightweight weapons like machine guns are readily available in the region, HTS’s access to “very advanced marches” raises eyebrows.
“It is no secret [that] I view these factions as arms affiliated with Ankara, especially in light of the unusual armament they possess,” said Oliphant, hinting at the source.
Ankara’s connections to HTS are not new. Türkiye has fostered relationships with various opposition factions since the beginning of the Syrian conflict. Oliphant suggests that Ankara benefits directly from HTS’s advance, citing the mission to “expand the scope of control in Syrian territory and push refugees into these areas.”
HTS has deep roots in the Syrian insurgency. Before its rebranding, the group was known as Jabhat al-Nusra, formerly affiliated with al-Qaeda. Although HTS officially severed ties with al-Qaeda, the United States remains unconvinced, keeping the group on its list of designated terrorist organizations.
The silence from Washington regarding the takeover by a group with these terror ties fuels discussion about the complexities of the situation in Syria. Oliphant highlights the reality of a landscape dominated by factions classified as terrorist organizations by the United States. Some of these factions maintain relationships with Iran and Hezbollah, while others align with ISIS or groups linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party.
“Washington is now in an observer position,” Oliphant explained, highlighting the United States’ current stance. “They are not satisfied with the progress of a group linked to ISIS, while also dissatisfied with what the regime is doing.” He believes this is the reason for the United States’ lack of active intervention.
The US stance stems from the concern about the potential of these groups to harbor broader ambitions, especially HTS. While HTS for now seeks control within Syria, reminiscent of the Taliban’s approach in Afghanistan – acquiring territory and establishing an Islamic state – their aspirations might unfold differently in the future. The concern is that Syria, weakened by conflict, could become a breeding ground for further international terrorism, a prospect undesirable to the United States.
Meanwhile, alongside HTS’s advance, Kurdish forces continue to make their own gains. On Thursday, opposition groups took control of Hama, the fourth largest city in Syria, following the complete takeover of Aleppo just days before.
If HTS takes Homs, only Damascus and the coastal region overlooking the Mediterranean would remain under the direct control of President Bashar al-Assad’s government.
Iranian support and Iraqi preparedness…a regional movement regarding developments in Syria
With the advance of opposition factions into major cities over the past few days and into areas from which Syrian government forces have withdrawn, diplomatic movements are accelerating in parallel to discuss sudden developments on the ground.
How have HTS’s claimed break from al-Qaeda and the US classification of HTS as a terrorist group influenced international responses to their recent advances?
## HTS Advance: Shifting Power and Unanswered Questions
**Host:** Welcome back to the show. Joining us today is Douglas Oliphant, a senior researcher at the New America Foundation who has been closely following the developments in Syria. Douglas, HTS has been making significant territorial gains recently, capturing areas like parts of Homs. What are your thoughts on these advances?
**Oliphant:** The situation in Syria is undeniably complex, and HTS’s recent gains are a testament to that complexity. While their advance itself isn’t surprising, what’s raising eyebrows is the sophistication of their weaponry. HTS seems to possess equipment beyond what’s typically available in the region, leading to speculation about their arms sources.
**Host:** So, you’re suggesting that HTS might have external support fueling their advances?
**Oliphant:** It’s certainly a possibility. While readily available light weapons like machine guns are common in the Syrian conflict, HTS’s access to “very advanced marches,” as you put it, is unusual. I believe Ankara, the Turkish government, plays a role here. Türkiye has long fostered relationships with various opposition factions in Syria, and I see these arms as a direct benefit Ankara derives from HTS’s expansion. It allows them to broaden their control in Syrian territory and potentially push refugees into these areas.
**Host:** You mentioned HTS’s past ties to al-Qaeda. Despite their claimed break from the organization, the US still classifies them as a terrorist group. How does this complicate matters?
**Oliphant:**
It certainly paints a complex picture. The US maintains that HTS still harbors ties to al-Qaeda, despite their claims to the contrary. This situation is further complicated by the presence of other factions in Syria, many classified as terrorist organizations by the US, that align with groups like Iran, Hezbollah, ISIS, or even the Kurdistan Workers’ Party.
**Host:** Given the US’s stance on HTS and the complex landscape you describe, what role do you see the US playing in this evolving situation?
**Oliphant:** Right now, I see the US largely as an observer. They aren’t actively supporting HTS, but neither are they intervening to stop their advance. They seem unsatisfied with the power dynamics unfolding, but their options are limited. The situation truly highlights the multifaceted and challenging nature of the Syrian conflict.
**Host:** Thanks for providing your insights, Douglas. This is definitely a situation we’ll continue to monitor closely.
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