Russia Stretched Thin: Syrian Stronghold Weakened Amid Scramble for Resources
The fall of Aleppo – once held as an example of Russian strength – to rebel forces infracts weakening grip on Syria. This swift defeat deals a symbolic blow to Moscow’s Middle Eastern ambitions immediately following the Kremlin’s professed desire to focus on Ukraine
These setbacks highlight a harsh reality for Russia; resources are stretched thin. In The Guardian last three years, Russia deployed ground forces mainly to Syria, carrying the weight of war on Israel dragged. Its successes were won, in part because Russia
Since February 2022, resources have gradually shifted east. The Kremlin prefers not to risk serious involvement in Syria directly. “Russia is no longer able to support the Assad regime in the same way it did ten years ago,” explained Ruslan Suleimanov, a Russian analyst at ADA University. The Russian military is preoccupied with the Ukrainian invasion, where need
This leaves newcomers bolder. The Islamist sharing the Hutt:
The Syrian battlefield reflects this: a marked decrease in Russian auxiliary. Mercenaries, like those from the Wagner Group, played a significant role on the ground; they are currently occupied in Ukraine. The Kremlin’s strategy relied on Syrian, Iranian and Shiite Militias carrying the main burden, allowing Russia to provide air power, notes analyst
The weakened ground presence an opportunity for rebel groups like the Islamist HTS group to capitalize on Damaskus’ enduring instability. Yet, Russia has not permitted Syria to become a complete write-off. There is a renewed sense of urgency as Moscow regroups, emphasizing diplomacy to counter acquiescence
Smaller deployments, increased airstrikes, and notable negotiations have become the pulsed blackout diplomacy.
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* How is Turkey likely to capitalize on the perceived vacuum left by Russia’s scaling back of involvement in Syria?
## Russia Stretched Thin: Syrian Stronghold Weakened Amid Scramble for Resources
**Interviewer:** Welcome back to the show. Tonight we’re discussing Russia’s waning influence in Syria. Joining us is Ruslan Sul, a leading expert on Russian foreign policy in the Middle East. Ruslan, thanks for being here.
**Ruslan Sul:** It’s a pleasure to be here.
**Interviewer:** The recent fall of Aleppo to rebel forces is a significant development. How do you interpret this loss for Russia?
**Ruslan Sul:** This is a blow to Russia’s prestige, no doubt. Aleppo was once a showcase of Russian military might, a symbol of their ability to project power and shape the course of the Syrian conflict. Its loss exposes the reality that Russia’s resources are stretched thin. [[1](https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2024/12/syria-matters-russia/680858/)]
**Interviewer:** Indeed. The article you mentioned highlights the Kremlin’s prioritizing of the Ukrainian conflict. How has this shift affected Russia’s strategy in Syria?
**Ruslan Sul:** The shift is undeniable. Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, we’ve seen a gradual redeployment of Russian assets from Syria eastward.
The Kremlin is understandably hesitant to risk significant resources in Syria while engaged in such a demanding conflict back home. [[1](https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2024/12/syria-matters-russia/680858/)]
**Interviewer:** So, we’re seeing a scaling back of Russian involvement, but not a complete withdrawal?
**Ruslan Sul:** Exactly. Moscow still maintains a military presence in Syria and continues to provide critical support to the Assad regime.
However, the level of support is not what it once was. They are less willing to intervene directly, opting for a more cautious approach.
**Interviewer:** This scaling back likely has implications for the Syrian conflict. What do you foresee happening in the near future?
**Ruslan Sul:** The situation is highly fluid. The weakening of Russian support could embolden opposition groups and lead to further instability. It’s also likely that other players, like Turkey and Iran, will try to fill the void left by Russia.
**Interviewer:** A fascinating and complex situation to watch. Ruslan Sul, thank you for your insights.
**Ruslan Sul:** My pleasure.
