 "Iran Nuclear Deal in Peril: Talks Resume Amid Trump’s Looming Return")
Iran Nuclear Talks Resume Amid Looming Trump Return and Rising Tensions
Geneva hosted a pivotal meeting between European and Iranian diplomats in a race against time to revive the tattered Iran nuclear deal before Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January. The talks marked the first face-to-face discussions since the US election, occurring against a backdrop of growing unease in Tehran following a European Union-backed resolution criticizing Iran’s cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog.
European diplomats, aware of Trump’s impending return and his hardline stance on Iran, are racing to secure a new agreement. The former US president, who withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal and imposed crippling sanctions, is assembling a team filled with hawkish figures known for their stance on Iran.
Tensions escalated further when the EU3 – Britain, Germany, and France – pushed through a resolution criticizing Iran’s dealings with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). In response, Tehran announced plans to install more uranium-enriching centrifuges, signaling a dangerous escalation.
“From Iran’s perspective, this meeting is serious and not merely a diplomatic show of strength,” a senior Iranian official involved in the talks shared with Reuters.
Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran’s former envoy to the IAEA, took to X, stating, "Europe should not project its own problems and mistakes onto others, including with regard to the conflict in Ukraine."
The EU3, while adopting a tougher stance on Iran’s military support for Russia, have maintained a desire for dialogue, insisting on a combined policy of pressure and negotiations. The talks underscore their urgent need to secure a new deal before January and avoid a potentially disastrous nuclear standoff.
Three Iranian officials emphasized that Tehran’s primary objective is the lifting of economic sanctions imposed since Trump withdrew from the 2015 agreement.
Since Trump’s exit, Iran has accelerated its uranium enrichment program while limiting the IAEA’s access for inspections, setting alarm bells ringing in Europe and the United States.
Kelsey Davenport, director of non-proliferation policy at the Arms Control Association, stated bluntly: “There isn’t going to be an agreement until Trump takes office or any serious talks about the contours of a deal."
A European official, understanding the time constraints, added that the primary aim of these talks was to establish a framework for good faith negotiations, ensuring a clear commitment from the Iranian side to engage in concrete discussions before Trump’s return.
Adding further complexity, fears linger over a potential military escalation between sworn enemies Iran and Israel, despite a ceasefire between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly stated his intention to prioritize Iran as a major focus for his administration.
European diplomats see this narrow window of opportunity as critical. Time is running out to negotiate new constraints on Iran’s nuclear program, albeit less stringent than the 2015 deal, with a target date of summer 2024. This would allow ample time to implement the new limitations and lift sanctions before the current agreement expires in October 2025.
However, the willingness of a Trump administration to back any potential deal remains unclear, leaving a cloud of uncertainty over the talks’ prospects.
Should a new agreement not materialize, the EU3 could activate the "snapback" mechanism embedded within the 2015 accord. This process involves sending the issue to the UN Security Council, allowing for the reimposition of sanctions lifted under the deal.
Iran, which has long maintained that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, has issued a warning: it would review its nuclear doctrine should the "snapback" be triggered. The stakes are undeniably high for all parties involved.
What are the European Union’s priorities in these negotiations?
## Interview: Iran Nuclear Talks Resume
**Host:** Welcome back to the program. Joining us today is Kelsey Davenport, Director of Non-Proliferation Policy at the Arms Control Association, to discuss the recent resumption of nuclear talks between Iran and European powers.
Kelsey, tensions seem to be running high as these talks get underway. Can you paint a picture of the current situation?
**Kelsey Davenport:** Absolutely. The urgency of this situation cannot be overstated. We’re facing a ticking clock with Donald Trump’s return to the White House looming in January.
His hardline stance is well-documented, and his assembling a team known for its hawkish views on Iran signals a likely return to maximum pressure tactics. [ 1 ] This puts immense pressure on European diplomats to secure a new deal before he takes office.
**Host:** And what about the current state of the negotiations themselves?
**Kelsey Davenport:** There’s a lot of distrust in the air. The recent EU-backed resolution criticizing Iran’s cooperation with the IAEA, coupled with Tehran’s subsequent announcement to install more uranium-enriching centrifuges, has further escalated tensions. This indicates a dangerous path where Tehran is moving closer to producing nuclear weapons.
**Host:** So, what are Iran’s objectives in these talks?
**Kelsey Davenport:** From what we understand, Tehran’s primary goal is the lifting of sanctions imposed since Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal. They’ve felt the economic strain of these sanctions keenly, and they’re unlikely to make meaningful concessions without a clear path to their removal.
**Host:** And what about the EU? What are their priorities in these negotiations?
**Kelsey Davenport:** The EU walks a tightrope. They want to see a return to the original nuclear deal and prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, but they also need to address concerns about Iran’s support for Russia. They seem to be pursuing a strategy of combined pressure and negotiations.
**Host:** Is there any hope for a successful outcome in these talks? Given the tight timeframe and the high stakes involved, how optimistic are you?
**Kelsey Davenport:** Honestly, the outlook is quite uncertain. There’s a lot of negativity swirling around the talks, and both sides are entrenched in their positions. It will require significant compromise from both Iran and the EU to achieve a lasting agreement. Time is running out, and the consequences of failure are dire. We can only hope that all parties involved recognize the urgency of the situation and are willing to make the difficult choices necessary to prevent a nuclear crisis.
**Host:**
Thank you for your insight, Kelsey. This is a developing story we will continue to follow closely.
