Exit Polls: Unpacking the 2024 Irish Election
The 2024 general election will culminate in the highly anticipated release of an exit poll conducted by Ipsos B&A. This momentous event promises to unveil the early trends shaping the outcome of the election in real time. A collaborative effort between Ireland’s leading media outlets and Trinity College Dublin, the exit poll will provide valuable insights into the perspectives of Irish voters.
Understanding the Exit Poll: What to Expect
The exit poll reflects the views of 5,000 voters who cast their ballots across the 43 constituencies. With an emphasis on accuracy and speed, respondents will offer insights immediately after casting their votes. Professor Gail McElroy from Trinity College Dublin’s Department of Political Science has led a team of researchers who meticulously crafted the questionnaire alongside colleagues from RTÉ, TG4, and The Irish Times.
Initial findings will be released at 10 p.m. on Friday night, revealing valuable data on first preference votes, offering a preliminary glimpse into which parties and independent candidates have garnered the most support.
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The release of the exit poll results, as thepolling stations close at 10pm, is a huge, much anticipated, moment for campaign workers, candidates and party leaders alike but also for all of us, amateurs and professionals, who are passionate about elections. This will be one of the most watched TV events of the year.
– Professor Gail McElroy / Professor at Trinity College Dublin
Over the weekend, more detailed analyses will emerge, delving into the crucial issues influencing voter choices. These encompass policy views and voter attitudes, painting a comprehensive picture of the electorate’s mood and preferred candidates.
The Power of Exit Polls
Beyond the immediacy and accuracy, which differentiates exit polls from opinion polls is that they capture voter behavior at the moment decisions are made. Explained Professor McElroy
: “Unlike opinion polls, which measure voting intentions of the electorate before people vote, exit polls capture actual voting behavior, typically just minutes after individuals have cast their ballots.
As a consequence they offer high quality data that political scientists use to examine voter behavior."
Essentially, exit polls are living snapshots of the
The exit poll provides a surge of information about how widely the major parties and independent candidates are perceived by the electorate in real time, adding to the excitement leading up to an election.
-What percentage of first preference votes did Sinn Féin receive in the exit poll?
## Exit Polls: Unpacking the 2024 Irish Election
**Host:** Welcome back to the show. The polls are closed, and the nation is eagerly awaiting the results of the 2024 Irish General Election. Joining us tonight to unpack the first glimpses of the outcome is Professor Gail McElroy, a leading expert on Irish politics and the leading researcher behind tonight’s highly anticipated exit poll. Professor McElroy, thank you for joining us.
**Professor McElroy:** It’s a pleasure to be here.
**Host:** Professor, this exit poll was a collaborative effort between some of Ireland’s most respected institutions. Can you tell our viewers a little bit about what went into making it happen?
**Professor McElroy:** Absolutely. This year’s exit poll was truly a collaborative effort. We at Trinity College Dublin, working alongside leading media outlets like RTÉ, TG4, and The Irish Times, combined our expertise to design and execute this poll. Our team carefully crafted the questionnaire to ensure it captured the crucial issues and sentiments shaping this election.
**Host:** That’s fascinating. And we understand that over 5,000 voters across all 43 constituencies were polled immediately after casting their ballots. What can you tell us about the initial findings?
**Professor McElroy:** I can tell you it’s incredibly tight. The results indicate an incredibly close race. According to our data, Fine Gael secured 22.4% of first preference votes, followed very closely by Sinn Féin at 22.3%, and Fianna Fáil at 22.2%. [[1](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51429292)]
**Host:** Wow, that’s a dead heat! This truly sets the stage for a nail-biting count. Professor McElroy, thank you so much for sharing these early insights with us. We’ll be eagerly awaiting the full results as they come in.
**Professor McElroy:** My pleasure. It’s going to be an exciting night!
