The response to the recent Israeli raids in Beirut will be attacks on “downtown Tel Aviv“. This is the threat from Hezbollah leader, Naim Qassem, in light of the bombings that in recent days killed members of the pro-Iranian Shiite group, including spokesman Mohammed Afif.
Hezbollah has also made it known that it will not accept any ceasefire agreement that violates Lebanon‘s “sovereignty”. “Israel cannot impose its conditions on us,” Qassem said in the pre-recorded speech, calling for “a total end to aggression and the defense of Lebanon’s sovereignty.” “The Israeli enemy cannot enter Lebanese territory whenever he wants” in the event of a ceasefire, he added, indirectly responding to the words of Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar, according to whom a truce cannot ignore “freedom of action” for Israel towards Hezbollah.
«We have received the negotiating document, we have studied it carefully and we have made some observations on the matter – underlined Qassem in his third public speech since becoming leader of Hezbollah on 29 October, referring to the American proposal -. The President of Parliament, Nabih Berri, also expressed his comments, which are in line with ours.” Qassem explained that he “negotiated on the basis of two principles, the first, a complete and total ceasefire, and the second, the preservation of Lebanese sovereignty.”
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What are the potential consequences of Hezbollah carrying out attacks on Tel Aviv?
## Interview on the Breakdown of the Ceasefire Between Israel and Hezbollah
**Host:** Welcome back to the News Hour. Today we have Dr. Sarah Klein, a Middle East expert, joining us to discuss the fragile ceasefire situation between Israel and Hezbollah. Dr. Klein, thanks for being with us.
**Dr. Klein:** Thank you for having me.
**Host:** Let’s start with the latest developments. Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem has rejected any ceasefire agreement that compromises Lebanon’s sovereignty. Can you elaborate on what this means and why it’s causing tension?
**Dr. Klein:** Exactly. Qassem’s statement reflects Hezbollah’s position that Israel should not have the freedom to enter Lebanese territory, even under the guise of a ceasefire. He believes any agreement must guarantee the complete cessation of Israeli military action and respect Lebanon’s territorial integrity. This stance directly clashes with Israel’s position, as articulated by Foreign Minister Gideon Saar, who insists on maintaining “freedom of action” against Hezbollah [You can find further details on this in the recent article by Il Tempo]([[1]](https://img.iltempo.it/images/2024/11/20/163535693-f5eabfb8-88a9-4852-a7e9-5764e4c2dd21.jpg)).
**Host:** Qassem also threatened attacks on Tel Aviv in response to recent Israeli raids in Beirut. How likely is it that Hezbollah will carry out such attacks, and what could be the consequences?
**Dr. Klein:** Qassem’s statement is clearly a strong warning and a show of force. While Hezbollah has a history of retaliating against Israeli strikes, it’s important to remember that they also have a vested interest in avoiding a full-blown conflict.
A major escalation could have devastating consequences for Lebanon, already struggling economically and politically. However, the current brinkmanship creates a dangerous situation, and the risk of miscalculation leading to an unintended war cannot be ignored.
**Host:** Some experts argue that the current ceasefire is only temporary and a long-term solution is needed to prevent future escalation. What are your thoughts on that?
**Dr. Klein:** Absolutely.
This ceasefire is a tentative step towards de-escalation but it doesn’t address the underlying issues fueling the conflict.
A lasting peace requires a complex and multi-faceted approach involving negotiations between Israel and Hezbollah, perhaps facilitated by international mediators. It also requires tackling the root causes of the tension, including security concerns, political influence, and resource allocation.
The international community needs to actively engage in finding a lasting solution, as the stakes are simply too high.
**Host:** Thank you, Dr. Klein, for your insightful analysis. We appreciate your time.
