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JAKARTA – On November 27, the citizens of Indonesia’s capital city will head to the polls to elect their next governor, marking a crucial test for President Prabowo Subianto’s administration, which has been in office since October. This early election will serve as a gauge of the president’s popularity and the effectiveness of his policies, which have been met with both optimism and skepticism by the public.
The gubernatorial election pits Mr. Prabowo’s preferred candidate, former West Java governor Ridwan Kamil, against the opposition’s nominee, former Cabinet secretary Pramono Anung, in a fierce battle for control of the metropolitan area that contributes approximately 20% to the country’s GDP. Whoever emerges victorious will inherit a plethora of challenges, including the city’s notorious traffic congestion, deteriorating air quality, and the alarming fact that Jakarta is literally sinking at an alarming rate due to subsidence and rising sea levels.
The newly elected governor will not only have to contend with the aforementioned issues but also navigate the complex process of relocating the nation’s capital to a new city being built in the rainforests of Borneo, over 1,200 kilometers away. This monumental task, initiated by former President Joko Widodo, aims to redistribute wealth and alleviate the pressures of overpopulation in Jakarta, but its success hinges on the ability of the new governor to collaborate with the central government and various stakeholders.
The Jakarta governorship is a highly coveted position in Indonesian politics, often serving as a stepping stone to the presidency. The current election is particularly significant, as it will demonstrate the level of support for President Prabowo’s policies and his ability to consolidate power after forming a coalition government that controls a significant majority of national parliament seats.
According to the latest opinion polls, Mr. Ridwan is trailing behind Mr. Pramono, but a substantial 25% of voters remain undecided, leaving the outcome of the election uncertain. A run-off is likely, as neither candidate is expected to secure more than 50% of the vote in the initial round. The first results are anticipated to be announced at 3 pm local time.
The Jakarta election is the most high-profile of the local elections taking place in 37 provinces across Indonesia, offering voters their first opportunity to express their support for President Prabowo’s administration since his inauguration in late October. Mr. Prabowo, a former general, has set ambitious targets, including achieving 8% annual economic growth and implementing a US$30 billion free lunch program for schoolchildren.
Controlling the island of Java, where Jakarta is located, is crucial to the success of these policies, as over half of the country’s population resides in this region. A defeat for Mr. Prabowo’s candidates in Jakarta and Central Java could have far-reaching consequences, including a potential sell-off of Indonesian stocks by investors, according to Lionel Priyadi, a macro strategist at Mega Capital Indonesia.
Mr. Priyadi warned that such defeats could “make the implementation of Mr. Prabowo’s programs more complicated due to stronger political resistance,” which could, in turn, impact the country’s economic growth and stability. The rupiah has already depreciated by approximately 1.5% against the US dollar in November, while the Jakarta Composite Index has lost around 4% of its value.
Former President Joko Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, served as Jakarta’s governor for two years before assuming the presidency in 2014. During his tenure, he initiated the ambitious plan to relocate the capital to Borneo, renaming it Nusantara, as part of his legacy and an effort to redistribute wealth across the archipelago.
However, the multi-billion-dollar project remains in its infancy, with most transport links and buildings still under construction. President Prabowo has pledged to see the project through to completion, aiming to finish key facilities in Nusantara within the next four years.
In recent weeks, the Jakarta governor candidates have been outlining their visions for the megacity, which remains an economic powerhouse in South-east Asia. Mr. Ridwan, backed by President Prabowo, has promised to reduce bureaucratic red tape to attract investors, develop a Disneyland off Jakarta’s coast, and continue with land reclamation projects.
Mr. Pramono, supported by the opposition Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, has vowed to invest in training Jakarta’s workforce, establish a US$3 billion fund to finance projects in the city, and push ahead with plans to construct a giant sea wall to mitigate the effects of rising sea levels.
According to D. Nicky Fahrizal, a researcher at the Jakarta-based think tank the Center for Strategic and International Studies, “The systems in Jakarta are already running, but whoever wins, the challenge is to improve the quality.” He added, “Jakarta can be as busy as New York, but will it be comfortable? Or will Jakarta have clean air like Singapore?”
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