Folks, gather ’round. We’ve got some exciting news from the world of international politics, which I’m sure you’ve all been following with bated breath. Or not.
It seems that after an eternity of fighting, negotiations, and general chaos in the Middle East, the United States and France might, maybe, possibly be on the brink of announcing a ceasefire. Between Israel and Hezbollah. Isn’t that just thrilling? (Sarcasm dripping like honey from my British-accented voice) Who wouldn’t want a temporary lull in conflict between two groups with vastly different ideologies and no genuine reason to trust each other? Sounds like the exact opposite of a powder keg waiting to go, right?
Now, keep in mind that I haven’t been privy to any top-secret government dossiers on the upcoming agreement. I mean, that would be too surreal for words. My team, however, have taken some time to break out their best "Downton Abbey"-era translation tools to help explain, as best we can make sense of it all without causing a diplomatic incident!
In short, Joe "Honest Joe" Biden (I’ve just adopted a nickname for the fellow; I hope you mind readers don’t) seems all set to co-launch a joint statement announcing ‘an end to fighting alongside the French President, His French Excellency (sorry for the formality– old habits die hard); in the words of sources quoted in the well-spun Arab media sources to announce the official truce with the world Tuesday this morning. However, given all the drama between senior US officials and various dignitaries from countries A-Z, it may depend on the approval by Mr Netanyahu’s security council committee this afternoon.
Of all people, Benyamin Netanyahu, the one known as Bibi among various news outlets, probably gave those Saudi Al-Sharaq Al-Awasti guys a stern talk this time around. Perhaps telling them to stop all gossip-mongering as though their Washington and Paris cronies were going to handle their diplomatic success first?! Talk about the real, raw, and juicy.
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In another move from the United States Administration– this time trying perhaps harder to correct and manage things– the statement reads "The agreement is approaching finalization, yet that depends on all sides committing and agreeing on finer negotiations," according to an esteemed Mr John Kirby.
Imagine our collective gasp worldwide! Only hours earlier U.S. officials whispered this would be done ‘fairly soon’ with reports released by the senior Lebanense officials that "these might be done as they get finalized within the first couple of hours, celebrating war’s end and counting minutes." I hope everybody involved has their watches.
I must say though to get to the Elysee’s official update yesterday afternoon, they reported rather interestingly "these very diplomatic discussions are near or may possibly have reached that special conclusive state." So close a point that it leaves both hope and fear combined without us knowing the answer even with the clock moving! The end of conflict just like that?
This part we can all read well as it gets told straight– the International Court taking sides and making waves right as the White House delegation Mr Amos Hochsteing met with Prime ministers for a very diplomatic evening which turned out being extremely heated. As Mr Gant was mentioned by Israeli press sources as not focusing or being able to "calm down."
He said he would no way ever agree to such meddling– the French as said with the court to involve. And as Biby lost his cool to France he said "it ain’t going down well when one of the people wants another to be the lead person in this– given our history."
Imagine reading in the news tomorrow after 14 months: fighting may be done; however a lot more would rely on the U.S getting things done and leading them and France to play "middlemen" here… And that is our 30-minute news briefing without going into the ‘hairy’ details we get daily.
Ceasefire Between Hezbollah and Israel Imminent, Announcement Expected on Tuesday
According to reliable sources in the Arab media, the official declaration of the ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel is expected to be made by US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday morning in a joint statement, ending over 14 months of intense conflict in the region. The announcement was set to be preceded by a meeting of the Israeli political security cabinet, convened in the afternoon, where ministers were requested to wait until 9 pm as the discussion is expected to be lengthy and demanding.
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However, the US had earlier informed senior Lebanese officials that a ceasefire could be declared “within a few hours”, triggering widespread celebrations across Lebanon, with local media releasing numerous videos of jubilant citizens. The US also subsequently clarified its stance through a statement from Security Council spokesman John Kirby: “The agreement in Lebanon is close, but discussions continue; the details must be agreed upon before it can be finalized. President Biden is closely following the situation and its developments.” Meanwhile, the Elysée announced that “significant progress has been made in discussions for a ceasefire,” further solidifying the anticipation of an imminent agreement.
The path to this potential ceasefire was significantly complicated by a dramatic turn of events involving the International Criminal Court (ICC). Last Thursday, while Netanyahu was meeting with the White House envoy Amos Hochstein, the conversation was abruptly interrupted by the news of the ICC issuing arrest warrants against Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. This development heightened tensions, with Netanyahu reportedly reacting emotionally, becoming unable to continue the conversation with Hochstein. The situation escalated further when the French Foreign Ministry announced its intention to implement the ICC’s ruling, prompting Netanyahu to refuse any French involvement in the agreement. Moreover, Israel harbors suspicions that President Macron personally authorized the French judge in The Hague to support the issuing of these warrants, further straining relations.
The French Foreign Ministry later issued a more moderate statement in an attempt to mitigate the damage. This was followed by a conversation between Biden and Macron, where Biden expressed agreement with Netanyahu’s stance that France cannot mediate and supervise the implementation of the agreement if it also intends to carry out the ICC’s arrest warrants. This has seemingly resolved one of the most contentious points of the agreement – French participation in the ceasefire control body. After nearly 14 months of fighting, the agreement is finally on the cusp of being finalized.
The proposed agreement outlines Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon within 60 days, to be replaced by the Lebanese army and UNIFIL, who will work to clear the area of Hezbollah sites up to the Litani River. An international committee, led by the US and including France and Great Britain, will be established to enforce the agreement. Additionally, a separate document, signed by the US, will provide Israel with the freedom to respond immediately to any missile or bomb launches, potentially increasing the power of Unifil as part of the agreement.
Italy’s Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani expressed Italy’s full availability to play a key role, alongside the USA and other countries, in supervising the execution of the agreement.
Despite these developments, the ICC’s decision continues to cast a shadow over Israel, with even Netanyahu’s opponents interpreting it as an unjust sentence for the entire population. Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei escalated tensions with a violent outburst, advocating for the execution of Netanyahu and Gallant for perceived war crimes, further highlighting the complexities surrounding the agreement.
