There is a lot of solar panels in Pakistan at the moment. According to a Bloomberg NEF report, 13 GW of solar panels were imported from China in the first half of 2024. According to one project developer, importing such a large number of solar panels resulted in solar panels being “seen on the roads.” In 2023, the demand for solar panels in Pakistan is about 3.5 GW, and in early 2024, Pakistan will be the target for Chinese solar exports. became the third largest market.
Muhammad Mujahid, executive director of Innovo Corp, said that in 2022, Pakistan’s central bank faced a shortage of dollars, leading to a trade deficit and an informal ban on imports. Only essential goods such as medicine and food could be imported, which meant that distributors were unable to bring in solar panels for nearly nine months.
Despite these restrictions, some solar panels were imported. Generally, a letter of credit (LC) is required from the importer’s bank to import goods. However during the foreign exchange crisis in 2022, issuance of LCs was limited. This situation provided an opportunity for the big players in the market to take advantage.
Hussain Khan of Wateen Energy Solutions said that the direct cost of importing the panels was $0.15 per watt while they were being sold at $0.30 per watt in the local market, a 100 percent profit in the trading business. Seeing the profit rate, everyone started ordering solar panels. Companies that were also exporting rice ventured into this business. For example, they exported rice and now they could bring their dollars back from other countries and suddenly the distribution of solar panels increased significantly.
Mohammad Mujahid said that selling solar panels was not a problem and no experience was necessary, meaning that it was not difficult for you to amortize solar panels from grade A manufacturing companies and sell them in the local market. .
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What impact has the influx of solar panels from China had on the pricing dynamics in Pakistan’s local solar market?
**Interview with Muhammad Mujahid, Executive Director of Innovo Corp**
**Interviewer:** Today, I’m joined by Muhammad Mujahid, the Executive Director of Innovo Corp, to discuss the rapidly evolving solar market in Pakistan. Muhammad, thank you for being here.
**Muhammad Mujahid:** Thank you for having me.
**Interviewer:** There’s been a significant influx of solar panels into Pakistan, with about 13 GW imported from China in the first half of 2024. What does this mean for the local solar market?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** Yes, it’s an astounding figure. The large number of solar panels has indeed transformed visibility; you can see these panels everywhere. With the demand projected at around 3.5 GW for 2023, this influx positions Pakistan as a major player, making it the third largest market targeted for Chinese solar exports by early 2024.
**Interviewer:** That’s impressive! However, the initial challenges in 2022 due to dollar shortages and import bans must have affected this growth. Could you elaborate on that?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** Absolutely. In 2022, Pakistan’s central bank faced critical dollar shortages, which led to a trade deficit and an informal ban on non-essential imports. This placed immense pressure on solar panel distributors, who couldn’t bring in new inventory for nearly nine months. The issuance of letters of credit was restricted, creating a challenging environment. However, some larger players in the market found ways to navigate these obstacles, seizing opportunities while smaller distributors struggled.
**Interviewer:** Interesting. Hussain Khan from Wateen Energy Solutions mentioned that the profit margin for imported panels was substantial, doubling the cost in the local market. How has this affected competition in the market?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** The high profit margins spurred a frenzy—many distributors jumped into solar, including those from unrelated sectors, like rice export. This influx initially benefited the market, but as the number of panels surged in 2024, we started witnessing price drops. Now we’re seeing solar panels sold at a loss in some cases, which was unexpected for many who thought the growth would sustain profitability longer.
**Interviewer:** Given these fluctuations, how have investment strategies changed among companies?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** Companies are diversifying their portfolios by investing in photovoltaic technology. Local and multinational firms are approaching solar as an essential part of their strategies. As Hussain indicated, solar systems provide a straightforward return on investment, typically within 18 months to two years, making them attractive despite market volatility.
**Interviewer:** In your view, will net metering and the economic conditions continue to support the solar sector in Pakistan?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** Despite potential dips in net metering profitability, solar remains an attractive investment, especially with rising electricity prices. Factors like currency devaluation and governance challenges negatively impact electricity costs, meaning solar can still provide significant savings and benefits in the long run.
**Interviewer:** Thank you for sharing these insights, Muhammad. It’s clear that despite challenges, the future of solar energy in Pakistan holds great promise.
**Muhammad Mujahid:** Thank you. It’s an exciting time for the sector, and I believe with the right strategies, we can continue to harness this potential effectively.