There is a lot of solar panels in Pakistan at the moment. According to a Bloomberg NEF report, 13 GW of solar panels were imported from China in the first half of 2024. According to one project developer, importing such a large number of solar panels resulted in solar panels being “seen on the roads.” In 2023, the demand for solar panels in Pakistan is about 3.5 GW, and in early 2024, Pakistan will be the target for Chinese solar exports. became the third largest market.
Muhammad Mujahid, executive director of Innovo Corp, said that in 2022, Pakistan’s central bank faced a dollar shortage, leading to a trade deficit and an informal ban on imports. Only essential goods such as medicine and food could be imported, which meant distributors were unable to bring in solar panels for nearly nine months.
Despite these restrictions, some solar panels were imported. Generally, a letter of credit (LC) is required from the importer’s bank to import goods. However during the foreign exchange crisis in 2022, issuance of LCs was limited. This situation provided an opportunity for the big players in the market to take advantage.
Hussain Khan of Wateen Energy Solutions said that the direct cost of importing the panels was $0.15 per watt while they were being sold at $0.30 per watt in the local market, a 100 percent profit in the trading business. Seeing the profit rate, everyone started ordering solar panels. Companies that were also exporting rice ventured into this business. For example, they exported rice and now they could bring their dollars back from other countries and suddenly the distribution of solar panels increased significantly.
Mohammad Mujahid said that selling solar panels was not a problem and no experience was necessary, meaning that it was not difficult for you to amortize solar panels from grade A manufacturing companies and sell them in the local market. .
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What do you foresee as the key challenges and opportunities for investors in the solar energy sector in Pakistan moving forward?
**Interview with Muhammad Mujahid, Executive Director of Innovo Corp**
**Interviewer:** Thank you for joining us today, Muhammad. There’s been a significant influx of solar panels in Pakistan recently. Could you share your insights on the current market situation?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** Thank you for having me. Indeed, the solar panel market in Pakistan is booming. According to a recent Bloomberg NEF report, we imported 13 GW of solar panels from China in just the first half of 2024. This surge is primarily driven by the growing demand; in 2023 alone, we had a demand of about 3.5 GW. It’s exciting to see Pakistan becoming the third largest market for Chinese solar exports.
**Interviewer:** That’s impressive! What changes have contributed to this rapid increase in imports?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** The situation has radically changed since the dollar shortage crisis we faced in 2022, where there was an informal ban on many imports, including solar panels. Distributors were unable to bring in new stocks for nearly nine months. However, with the easing of the situation and the high profit margins—around 100%—many players have jumped into the solar business.
**Interviewer:** Hussain Khan from Wateen Energy Solutions mentioned that the cost of importing panels was just $0.15 per watt, while they were sold for $0.30 in the local market. What impact did these profit margins have on the market?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** Those profit margins were a major incentive, not just for established players but also for newcomers. Companies that had previously been in entirely different sectors, like rice export, shifted to solar panel distribution. This influx of suppliers significantly increased availability on the ground, which was evident with panels “seen on the roads.”
**Interviewer:** It seems like a lot of opportunity has opened up, but you mentioned a shift in profit margins in 2024. What’s happening now?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** Yes, as more solar panels flooded the market, profit margins have sharply declined, and some retailers are even selling at a loss. We didn’t anticipate this swift exit from the market by some players; many thought it would take longer for the market dynamics to shift. The landscape has become very competitive.
**Interviewer:** What does this mean for the overall investment in solar energy in Pakistan?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** Despite the current downturn in margins, the long-term potential of solar energy remains robust. Many investors, both multinational and local companies, see solar as a vital part of their future. As Hussain mentioned, even with declining net metering profitability, the increase in electricity prices makes solar a smart investment. It offers returns on investment typically within 18 to 24 months.
**Interviewer:** Lastly, how do you see the future of the solar energy market in Pakistan evolving?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** The future looks promising, particularly as awareness grows about renewable energy. Despite current challenges, the underlying demand for clean energy is strong, and with government support and international investment, I believe we’re on the right track to transforming our energy landscape.
**Interviewer:** Thank you, Muhammad, for your valuable insights on the solar panel market in Pakistan.
**Muhammad Mujahid:** My pleasure, thank you for having me!