There is a lot of solar panels in Pakistan at the moment. According to a Bloomberg NEF report, 13 GW of solar panels were imported from China in the first half of 2024. According to one project developer, importing such a large number of solar panels resulted in solar panels being “seen on the roads.” In 2023, the demand for solar panels in Pakistan is about 3.5 GW, and in early 2024, Pakistan will be the target for Chinese solar exports. became the third largest market.
Muhammad Mujahid, executive director of Innovo Corp, said that in 2022, Pakistan’s central bank faced a dollar shortage, leading to a trade deficit and an informal ban on imports. Only essential goods such as medicine and food could be imported, which meant that distributors were unable to bring in solar panels for nearly nine months.
Despite these restrictions, some solar panels were imported. Generally, a letter of credit (LC) is required from the importer’s bank to import goods. However during the foreign exchange crisis in 2022, issuance of LCs was limited. This situation provided an opportunity for the big players in the market to take advantage.
Hussain Khan of Wateen Energy Solutions said that the direct cost of importing the panels was $0.15 per watt while they were being sold at $0.30 per watt in the local market, a 100 percent profit in the trading business. Seeing the profit rate, everyone started ordering solar panels. Companies that were also exporting rice ventured into this business. For example, they exported rice and now they could bring their dollars back from other countries and suddenly the distribution of solar panels increased significantly.
Mohammad Mujahid said that selling solar panels was not a problem and no experience was necessary, meaning that it was not difficult for you to amortize solar panels from grade A manufacturing companies and sell them in the local market. .
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**Interview with Muhammad Mujahid, Executive Director of Innovo Corp**
**Interviewer:** Thank you for joining us today, Muhammad. There’s a significant surge in solar panel imports in Pakistan. According to a Bloomberg NEF report, 13 GW of solar panels were imported from China just in the first half of 2024. What are the factors driving this massive influx?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** Thanks for having me. Indeed, the sharp increase in imports is primarily driven by the growing demand for solar energy in Pakistan. In 2023, we saw a demand of about 3.5 GW, and with Pakistan now being targeted as the third largest market for solar panels, we’re witnessing a significant increase in shipping from manufacturers, especially from China.
**Interviewer:** It sounds like a rapid change compared to previous years. Can you elaborate on the challenges faced in 2022 that may have impacted solar panel availability?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** Absolutely. In 2022, Pakistan faced a severe dollar shortage, which led to a trade deficit and an informal ban on imports. As a result, solar panel distributors were unable to import panels for nearly nine months, restricting the supply drastically. This situation created a backlog and heightened interest from both consumers and investors once the restrictions began to ease.
**Interviewer:** Interesting. How did the economic situation impact pricing during that time?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** When supplies were restricted, those who managed to import panels could command higher prices due to limited availability. For instance, as Hussain Khan from Wateen Energy Solutions pointed out, the cost of importing these panels was about $0.15 per watt, but they were being sold at $0.30 per watt locally. This created significant profit margins, which encouraged more players to enter the market, even those from unrelated industries, like rice exporters.
**Interviewer:** Fast forward to 2024, as you mentioned, we’re seeing an unusual number of panels on the market. What does this mean for pricing and profitability for companies involved?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** Well, the over-saturation of the market has led to decreased profit margins, and in some instances, companies are now selling panels at a loss. The rapid influx of panels means that while initial demand was high, it quickly became difficult to sustain those profit levels. I didn’t expect this kind of exit from the market to happen so quickly; I anticipated a more gradual decline over several months.
**Interviewer:** Given these fluctuations, do you think solar energy remains a viable investment for businesses in Pakistan?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** Definitely. Even with net metering becoming less profitable, the rising electricity prices in Pakistan make solar investments attractive. From a long-term perspective, most businesses start to see a return on investment within 18 months to two years, which is still compelling despite recent market turbulence.
**Interviewer:** Lastly, how is the future looking for solar energy investment in Pakistan?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** The outlook remains positive. There’s still a strong interest from both local and multinational companies in photovoltaic technology, as Hussain Khan mentioned, ”everybody who has capital is going solar.” The commercial and industrial sectors are likely to continue leading investments in solar energy, especially as the costs of traditional energy sources increase.
**Interviewer:** Thank you, Muhammad, for your insights on this growing industry in Pakistan.
**Muhammad Mujahid:** Thank you for having me. It’s an exciting time for renewable energy in Pakistan!