There is a lot of solar panels in Pakistan at the moment. According to a Bloomberg NEF report, 13 GW of solar panels were imported from China in the first half of 2024. According to one project developer, importing such a large number of solar panels resulted in solar panels being “seen on the roads.” In 2023, Pakistan will have a demand for solar panels of about 3.5 GW, and in early 2024, Pakistan will be the target for Chinese solar exports. became the third largest market.
Muhammad Mujahid, executive director of Innovo Corp, said that in 2022, Pakistan’s central bank faced a dollar shortage, leading to a trade deficit and an informal ban on imports. Only essential goods such as medicine and food could be imported, which meant distributors were unable to bring in solar panels for nearly nine months.
Despite these restrictions, some solar panels were imported. Generally, a letter of credit (LC) is required from the importer’s bank to import goods. However during the foreign exchange crisis in 2022, issuance of LCs was limited. This situation provided an opportunity for the big players in the market to take advantage.
Hussain Khan of Wateen Energy Solutions said that the direct cost of importing the panels was $0.15 per watt while they were being sold at $0.30 per watt in the local market, a 100 percent profit in the trading business. Seeing the profit rate, everyone started ordering solar panels. Companies that were also exporting rice ventured into this business. For example, they exported rice and now they could bring back their dollars from other countries and suddenly the distribution of solar panels increased significantly.
Mohammad Mujahid said that selling solar panels was not a problem and no experience was necessary, meaning that it was not difficult for you to amortize solar panels from grade A manufacturing companies and sell them in the local market. .
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How do you see the profit margins in the solar industry evolving in Pakistan given the current market dynamics and oversupply of panels?
**Interview with Muhammad Mujahid of Innovo Corp on the Solar Energy Landscape in Pakistan**
**Interviewer:** Thank you for joining us today, Muhammad. Let’s dive right in. The recent report from Bloomberg NEF indicates that 13 GW of solar panels were imported from China in just the first half of 2024. What does this influx mean for the solar market in Pakistan?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** Thank you for having me. The substantial influx of solar panels is a clear indication of the rising demand for solar energy in Pakistan. With around 3.5 GW needed in 2023, becoming the third largest market for Chinese solar exports transforms our landscape significantly. Solar panels are literally becoming ubiquitous, which is exciting for both consumers and the environment.
**Interviewer:** That’s interesting. However, we know that 2022 was quite challenging due to a dollar shortage and restrictions on imports, which impacted the availability of solar panels. Can you elaborate on how that situation has evolved?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** Indeed, 2022 was a tough year. The central bank’s restrictions meant that only essential goods could be imported, creating a nearly nine-month gap in solar panel imports. This created an opportunity for major players who could navigate the limited issuance of letters of credit. Despite the initial setbacks, those who invested wisely during that time are now well positioned as the market rebounds.
**Interviewer:** Speaking of investment, I understand there has been a significant profit margin associated with the sale of solar panels. Can you explain how that has played a role in the current boom?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** Absolutely. At one point, solar panels were imported at about $0.15 per watt and sold locally for $0.30—essentially a 100% markup. This profit motivated many players, including those from unrelated industries, to enter the solar market. However, in 2024, with an oversupply of panels, profit margins have begun to shrink, and some companies are even selling at a loss. The market dynamics are shifting rapidly.
**Interviewer:** It sounds like the market is quite volatile. What do you think will happen next? Will we see companies exiting the market?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** I initially believed that it would take longer for companies to exit, given the profits made previously. However, the rapid changes in the market dynamics caused by overstock have surprised even experts. Some companies may reconsider their strategies, but solar remains a viable investment due to rising electricity prices in Pakistan.
**Interviewer:** Speaking of investment, what type of entities are currently investing in solar technology?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** A mix of local and multinational companies are investing heavily, particularly in photovoltaic technology. The commercial and industrial sectors are the biggest players, with many looking to solar energy as a straightforward investment that can yield returns within 18 months to two years.
**Interviewer:** do you believe that despite potential challenges, solar energy will continue to be a worthwhile investment for Pakistanis?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** Yes, absolutely. Even with fluctuations in net metering profitability, solar energy remains attractive due to the rising costs of electricity. The combination of environmental benefits and financial returns makes solar a smart choice for the future of energy in Pakistan.
**Interviewer:** Thank you, Muhammad, for sharing your insights with us today. Your perspective on the evolving solar landscape in Pakistan is invaluable as we move towards a more sustainable future.
**Muhammad Mujahid:** Thank you for the opportunity to discuss this important topic.