How Diet Shifts Could Halve Agricultural Emissions in China: A key to climate neutrality
Authors: Fengwei Liu, FOLU China Director and Seth Cook, FOLU Asia Coordinator
As the global community gears up for COP29 this month in Azerbaijan and looks toward COP30 next year in Brazil, there is heightened scrutiny regarding the effectiveness of major powers in fulfilling their climate commitments. With its status as the world’s largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter, China plays a crucial role in determining the success of international climate initiatives.
China has set forth ambitious goals to peak carbon emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Food and land-use systems represent a significant piece of the puzzle in reaching these climate objectives, accounting for approximately 10% of China’s total GHG emissions. Extensive plans aimed at attaining climate neutrality have been developed for key sectors such as energy, industry, and transport—each of which is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. However, a timely opportunity has arisen to apply these strategies to the food and land-use sector, potentially transforming the country’s climate strategy.
Healthy and sustainable diets are a large part of China’s transition towards net-zero
Promoting healthy and sustainable diets is a vital aspect and driving force in China’s journey toward a climate-neutral economy. A recent paper from FOLU, titled The impacts of healthy diets on future greenhouse gas emissions in China, reveals that GHG emissions from the agricultural sector could be nearly halved—reduced by an impressive 46-51%—if the population adopts healthy diets. These diets are aligned with the most recent guidelines from the Chinese dietary guidelines (CDG-22) and the recommendations from the EAT Lancet Commission, which emphasize a wide variety of plant-based foods including fruits, vegetables, legumes, nuts, and grains, while advocating for moderate consumption of eggs, poultry, meat, and dairy. Transitioning towards these dietary guidelines not only holds significant potential for reducing emissions but also promises extensive health benefits by addressing public health costs associated with obesity and non-communicable diseases such as type II diabetes, cancer, and cardiovascular issues. Moreover, this shift resonates with cultural traditions as traditional Chinese diets are inherently rich in vegetables and plant-based proteins like tofu.
The authors employed four distinct models to evaluate the impact of dietary changes on GHG emissions: GLOBIOM-China, MAgPIE-China, FABLE CalculatorChina, and AGHG-INV. Each of these models relies on a combination of observed and projected economic and biophysical data, ensuring a multifaceted approach. The utilization of four separate models enhances the accuracy of the findings compared to relying on a single model. The paper also explores three varying scenarios to assess the implications of dietary pattern alterations on mitigating agricultural sector GHG emissions: business-as-usual (BAU), adoption of the EAT Lancet Commission’s recommendations for healthy and sustainable diets, and adoption of CDG-22. Both scenarios involving the adoption of CDG-22 and the EAT Lancet recommendations showcased marked emissions reductions in comparison to BAU (see figure below).
Methane reduction could be significant
If the population of China were to embrace either the CDG-22 or EAT Lancet diets, it would align the agricultural sector with global emissions targets aimed at limiting warming to 1.5°C, as outlined by the Paris Agreement. This dietary shift would also enhance efforts discussed at this year’s climate COP, with a focus on reducing methane emissions emanating from food production and waste management systems. More critically, it could ensure that China achieves its goal of peaking agricultural emissions by 2030, supporting the government in reaching its broader climate goals.
Clear policies and collaboration will be needed
Transforming dietary habits to incorporate healthy and sustainable diets presents a unique implementation challenge, as it necessitates a fundamental change in consumer behavior. Successfully navigating this transition will require well-defined, locally-tailored policy incentives that actively engage stakeholders while ensuring equity and justice are upheld. Additionally, robust coordination among key stakeholders from agriculture, health, education, and commercial sectors will be essential.
With its significant achievements in reducing poverty and undernourishment, China stands well-positioned to embrace the widespread adoption of healthier and more sustainable diets. This evolution offers the potential for substantial progress in climate change mitigation, enhanced public health outcomes, improved nutritional security, and bolstered environmental sustainability, thereby benefiting both citizens and the planet—both within China and across the globe.
How does Fengwei Liu suggest that shifting diets can simultaneously improve public health and contribute to China’s climate goals?
**Interview with Fengwei Liu, FOLU China Director**
**Editor:** Thank you for joining us today, Fengwei. Let’s dive right into the findings of your recent paper regarding dietary shifts in China. You mentioned that adopting healthy diets could potentially halve agricultural emissions. How significant is this finding in the context of China’s climate goals?
**Fengwei Liu:** Thank you for having me. This finding is incredibly significant, especially as China aims to peak carbon emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Agriculture accounts for roughly 10% of the country’s total greenhouse gas emissions. By promoting healthy, plant-based diets aligned with the latest dietary guidelines, we can achieve a 46-51% reduction in emissions from this sector alone. This represents a crucial opportunity to align dietary practices with climate goals, which is often overlooked in broader strategies.
**Editor:** That’s impressive! Can you explain how these dietary changes relate to existing Chinese dietary guidelines and the broader public health context?
**Fengwei Liu:** Absolutely. The recent Chinese Dietary Guidelines (CDG-22) and the EAT Lancet Commission recommend diets that prioritize a wide variety of plant-based foods while advocating for moderated consumption of meat and dairy. Shifting towards these diets not only contributes to reducing emissions but also addresses public health challenges related to obesity and chronic diseases like type II diabetes and cardiovascular issues. Essentially, we are looking at a dual benefit—improving health while actively contributing to a sustainable future.
**Editor:** Your research used multiple models to analyze these changes. Why was it important to use four different models rather than just one?
**Fengwei Liu:** Using four distinct models—GLOBIOM-China, MAgPIE-China, FABLE Calculator China, and AGHG-INV—allows us to cross-verify our results and enhance the accuracy of our findings. Each model has its strengths, drawing on a combination of observed and projected data. By employing a multifaceted approach, we can ensure that our conclusions are robust and reliable, providing a clearer picture of the potential impact of dietary changes on greenhouse gas emissions.
**Editor:** What kind of challenges do you foresee in promoting these dietary shifts in China?
**Fengwei Liu:** There are undoubtedly challenges, including entrenched cultural eating habits, the influence of the meat and dairy industries, and the need for public education on the benefits of these dietary guidelines. However, the rich tradition of plant-based diets in China offers a strong foundation for promoting these healthy shifts. We need collaborations across various sectors—government, education, and industry—to create awareness and facilitate this transition.
**Editor:** Looking ahead to events like COP29 in Azerbaijan and COP30 in Brazil, how vital are discussions around dietary changes to the global climate conversation?
**Fengwei Liu:** They are essential! Major powers like China have significant roles to play in achieving climate commitments, and this cannot be done without addressing food and land-use systems. By integrating dietary changes into climate strategies, we not only contribute to reducing emissions but also set an example for other nations. It’s time to recognize that every meal has the potential to impact our planet and public health.
**Editor:** Thank you, Fengwei, for sharing your insights on this critical issue. It’s clear that diet shifts are not just a personal health strategy but a vital climate action pathway for China and beyond.
**Fengwei Liu:** Thank you for the opportunity to discuss this! It’s crucial that we all have these conversations as we move forward in our climate efforts.