There is a lot of solar panels in Pakistan at the moment. According to a Bloomberg NEF report, 13 GW of solar panels were imported from China in the first half of 2024. According to one project developer, importing such a large number of solar panels resulted in solar panels being “seen on the roads.” In 2023, the demand for solar panels in Pakistan is about 3.5 GW, and in early 2024, Pakistan will be the target for Chinese solar exports. became the third largest market.
Muhammad Mujahid, executive director of Innovo Corp, said that in 2022, Pakistan’s central bank faced a shortage of dollars, leading to a trade deficit and an informal ban on imports. Only essential goods such as medicine and food could be imported, which meant that distributors were unable to bring in solar panels for nearly nine months.
Despite these restrictions, some solar panels were imported. Generally, a letter of credit (LC) is required from the importer’s bank to import goods. However during the foreign exchange crisis in 2022, issuance of LCs was limited. This situation provided an opportunity for the big players in the market to take advantage.
Hussain Khan of Wateen Energy Solutions said that the direct cost of importing the panels was $0.15 per watt while they were being sold at $0.30 per watt in the local market, a 100 percent profit in the trading business. Seeing the profit rate, everyone started ordering solar panels. Companies that were also exporting rice ventured into this business. For example, they exported rice and now they could bring their dollars back from other countries and suddenly the distribution of solar panels increased significantly.
Mohammad Mujahid said that selling solar panels was not a problem and no experience was necessary, meaning that it was not difficult for you to amortize solar panels from grade A manufacturing companies and sell them in the local market. .
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What are the main challenges that Pakistan’s solar energy market faced during the foreign exchange crisis in 2022, and how did these challenges affect panel imports?
**Interview with Muhammad Mujahid, Executive Director of Innovo Corp on Pakistan’s Solar Energy Boom**
**Editor:** Thank you for joining us today, Muhammad. Pakistan appears to be experiencing a significant surge in solar panel imports and installations. Can you give us an overview of the current solar market landscape in the country?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** Absolutely. As of the first half of 2024, Pakistan imported an impressive 13 gigawatts (GW) of solar panels, primarily from China. This influx has made solar panels quite visible across the country. The demand currently stands around 3.5 GW, which has made Pakistan the third largest market for Chinese solar exports.
**Editor:** That’s fascinating! However, we know that in 2022, there were significant challenges due to a dollar shortage. How did this impact the solar market?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** Correct. During the foreign exchange crisis in 2022, the central bank imposed restrictions on imports, only allowing essential goods like food and medicine. This led to a dramatic drop in solar panel imports for almost nine months. Yet, some panels managed to make their way in – typically requiring a letter of credit, which was hard to secure due to economic conditions. Unfortunately, this situation created an advantage for larger players in the market who could navigate these restrictions.
**Editor:** Interesting dynamic. Now, with the large number of panels imported, how has the pricing and profit landscape shifted?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** Initially, companies benefited from importing panels at around $0.15 per watt and selling them at $0.30 in the local market, yielding 100% profits. Consequently, many players, including those unrelated to the solar sector, jumped into the market. However, with an oversupply of panels, profit margins have decreased significantly, and some solar panels are even being sold at a loss in early 2024.
**Editor:** So, it seems the boom has led to some unintended consequences. In your opinion, will the current trend continue, or do you expect market saturation soon?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** I expected a gradual exit from the market as profit margins declined, but the pace of this exit has surprised me. I thought it would take longer—around six months to a year—considering the substantial profits that were previously available.
**Editor:** It’s clear that there is significant investor interest in solar energy. Where are most investments coming from, and how are companies like Wateen Energy Solutions contributing to this growth?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** The primary investments are coming from commercial and industrial sectors, particularly both local and multinational companies. For instance, Wateen Energy Solutions has been active; they’ve installed 30 MW of solar panels recently and plan to increase that to 50 MW by 2025. The straightforward nature of solar system investments, where you often see a return within 18 months to two years, is appealing, especially since energy prices are on the rise.
**Editor:** Given the changes in net metering and rising electricity costs, what is your outlook on the solar power investment landscape moving forward?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** Even with changes in net metering, investing in solar power remains beneficial due to escalating electricity prices. The reasons behind these hikes, as stated by NEPRA, include currency devaluation and high transmission losses. Thus, I believe solar energy will continue to be a viable investment option going forward.
**Editor:** Thank you for your insights today, Muhammad. It’s clear that the solar energy sector in Pakistan is evolving rapidly, and it will be interesting to see how it develops in the coming years.
**Muhammad Mujahid:** Thank you for having me. I’m excited about the future of renewable energy in our country.