Earlier this year, many observers breathed a sigh of relief when the mainstream, pro-EU coalition—comprising centre-left, centre-right, and liberal parties—successfully retained its majority during the European Parliament elections. These established parties, which have steered the direction of Europe for the past four decades, are set to endorse Ursula von der Leyen’s new European Commission by the end of the month. Their declared objective is ambitious: to pivot towards a European economy that is greener, more competitive, and more secure amid global challenges.
However, beneath this surface of continuity in EU political power lies a more troubling reality. Even before officially taking office, Von der Leyen’s new commission faces an unprecedented challenge as the far right is already exerting significant influence. This situation could be further exacerbated by Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House, which may invigorate far-right groups across Europe.
The newly constituted European Parliament has become the most right-wing in the EU’s history. More than half of its members hail from Von der Leyen’s centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) and various far-right factions. The far-right includes groups such as the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), which unites Giorgia Meloni’s political party from Italy with more extremist factions like France’s Reconquête and Sweden Democrats. Additionally, the Patriots for Europe (PfE), co-led by Marine Le Pen and Viktor Orbán, along with the more radical Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN), which is largely influenced by Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland, contribute to this rightward shift.
This alarming trend extends to the two other major institutions in the EU that share executive power: the incoming EU commission and the EU Council. Over half of the members of the new commission, selected by individual member states, and a similar majority in the EU Council, consist of right-wing representatives. This shift signifies a historic alteration in the balance of power within the EU, potentially signaling the demise of the centrist majority that has been at the helm since the EU’s inception. Although Von der Leyen made public commitments during her first term to maintain a centrist political stance, the pressure on the upcoming commission may steer it toward the right, particularly in pursuit of its political objectives.
Traditionally, coalitions in the EU Parliament have been formed on a case-by-case basis, with no commission ever relying on a pre-established parliamentary majority throughout its five-year term. As a result, votes from far-right factions may provide Von der Leyen with a strategic avenue to advance some of her more conservative policies, all while preserving the appearance of legitimacy through the support of mainstream EU parties.
The incoming commission’s lack of political allegiance or accountability to its pro-EU mainstream partners opens the door for potential cooperation with far-right elements. The combined strength of three far-right groups—the ECR, PfE, and ESN—now counts 187 of the 720 seats in Parliament, rendering them a formidable ally for the EPP. Furthermore, the EU Council is now largely composed of 14 national governments led or backed by right-wing or far-right regimes, suggesting they could propel the commission away from its stated priorities and goals.
An early indication of the potential consequences lies in Von der Leyen’s earlier capitulation to farmers’ protests earlier this year, which were bolstered by far-right support. In that instance, she effectively abandoned ambitious green initiatives.
This trend has become increasingly evident as a clear pattern of de-greening EU policies emerges. Initial resistance arose regarding the planned ban on combustion engines, aimed at achieving zero CO2 emissions for new cars by 2035, which was followed by delays in implementing deforestation regulations, a watering down of the corporate sustainability directive, and the postponement of reforms intended to render the common agricultural policy more environmentally friendly.
The mainstream’s increasingly silent concession to hard-right narratives is evident in Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party securing a vice-presidency in the European Parliament, along with several parliamentary committee chairs, and the possibility of nominating one EU commissioner.
While Orbán’s PfE and the even more extreme Sovereignists are officially excluded from alliances with mainstream EU parties due to an informal “cordon sanitaire”—an unwritten consensus among centrist factions to shun fringe political entities—the EPP nevertheless voted in September alongside all far-right groups on a resolution that recognized Edmundo González as the president of Venezuela.
The protective barriers against the far right that have historically characterized political landscapes across Europe have been breached in various nations, including the Czech Republic, Italy, the Netherlands, Slovakia, and Sweden, where governing coalitions now comprise both conservatives and far-right representatives.
Numerous EPP leaders have engaged in substantial discussions with hard-right MEPs aligned with Meloni over the past year, and Von der Leyen has endorsed Italy’s controversial offshore deportation centers. Moreover, the EPP declined to endorse a declaration proposed by socialists, greens, liberals, and leftist groups to counteract the rise of the far right, triggering mounting alarms that grow increasingly louder.
The European Parliament recently hosted public hearings for all nominated commissioners over the past two weeks to assess their suitability for the roles they seek. Although it remains within the parliament’s power to reject the entire slate of candidates, such an outcome is deemed unlikely, as it would impose significant delays on the new EU Commission’s inauguration.
As the process unfolds, MEPs have an essential opportunity to demand clarity from Von der Leyen and her appointees on a critical question: which political majority will guide their actions in the coming five years? Will it be a far-right coalition of pro-Trump conservatives and once-fringe actors, or will mainstream political forces like the socialists, liberals, and greens be prioritized? Recent months indicate that the emerging direction is increasingly concerning. Welcome to the new Europe.
What are the potential long-term impacts of the far-right’s influence on EU environmental policies?
**Interview with Dr. Clara Müller, European Politics Expert**
**Editor:** Thank you for joining us today, Dr. Müller. With the recent European Parliament elections, many were relieved to see pro-EU parties maintain their majority. But as you examine the current political landscape, what are your primary concerns regarding the shift to the far right?
**Dr. Müller:** Thank you for having me. While the retention of a pro-EU coalition might suggest stability, the rising influence of far-right factions is a significant concern. The fact that the European Parliament is now historically the most right-wing raises questions about the future of progressive policies in Europe. We’ve seen an alarming degree of cooperation between mainstream parties and these far-right elements, which could very well compromise the European Union’s foundational principles.
**Editor:** Could you elaborate on how this partnership between the mainstream coalition and far-right groups might affect policy direction, specifically in relation to environmental initiatives?
**Dr. Müller:** Absolutely. Under Ursula von der Leyen’s leadership, we’ve already observed a concerning trend—the “de-greening” of EU policies. The earlier concessions made to agricultural protests, largely fueled by far-right backing, demonstrate a willingness to compromise environmental ambitions for political gain. The ambition to ban combustion engines by 2035 and other crucial environmental reforms are increasingly at risk as these coalitions form. If the pro-EU coalition continues to align with hard-right narratives, it might dilute the EU’s green objectives significantly.
**Editor:** With far-right groups like the European Conservatives and Reformists and the Europe of Sovereign Nations gaining traction, how do you foresee the dynamics within the European Commission evolving?
**Dr. Müller:** The dynamics are bound to change dramatically. Given that a substantial number of European Commission members are aligned with right-wing parties, we could witness a pivot towards more conservative policies. Historically, commissions have thrived on consensus; however, if Von der Leyen’s commission begins to rely on far-right support for crucial votes, it could normalize their ideology in the overarching EU framework.
**Editor:** How are these shifts affecting the EU’s broader political landscape, particularly the balance of power among member states?
**Dr. Müller:** The changes signal a historical realignment within the EU. Over half of the EU Council is now comprised of right-wing governments, which suggests a stronger voice for those perspectives in shaping EU policy. The previous centrist dominance that has prevailed since the EU’s inception may be waning, leading to polarization and potentially diminished cooperation on important issues like human rights and environmental sustainability. This is not only a challenge for EU institutions but for the cohesion of member states as well.
**Editor:** do you think there is a way for pro-EU parties to regain the narrative and address these challenges effectively?
**Dr. Müller:** It’s crucial for pro-EU parties to reaffirm their commitment to core EU values, such as democracy, inclusivity, and environmental responsibility. They need to develop a strategy that clearly articulates not just what they stand against, but what they stand for. Engaging more effectively with grassroots movements, fostering community dialogues, and proactively addressing socioeconomic challenges posed by far-right narratives could help reclaim their narrative. It’s a challenging time, but renewed, authentic engagement with the electorate could steer the EU back towards a more centrist, progressive agenda.
**Editor:** Thank you, Dr. Müller, for your insights on this pressing issue.
**Dr. Müller:** Thank you for the opportunity to discuss these important matters.
