There is a lot of solar panels in Pakistan at the moment. According to a Bloomberg NEF report, 13 GW of solar panels were imported from China in the first half of 2024. According to one project developer, importing such a large number of solar panels resulted in solar panels being “seen on the roads.” In 2023, the demand for solar panels in Pakistan is about 3.5 GW, and in early 2024, Pakistan will be the target for Chinese solar exports. became the third largest market.
Muhammad Mujahid, executive director of Innovo Corp, said that in 2022, Pakistan’s central bank faced a shortage of dollars, leading to a trade deficit and an informal ban on imports. Only essential goods such as medicine and food could be imported, which meant distributors were unable to bring in solar panels for nearly nine months.
Despite these restrictions, some solar panels were imported. Generally, a letter of credit (LC) is required from the importer’s bank to import goods. However during the foreign exchange crisis in 2022, issuance of LCs was limited. This situation provided an opportunity for the big players in the market to take advantage.
Hussain Khan of Wateen Energy Solutions said that the direct cost of importing the panels was $0.15 per watt while they were being sold at $0.30 per watt in the local market, a 100 percent profit in the trading business. Seeing the profit rate, everyone started ordering solar panels. Companies that were also exporting rice ventured into this business. For example, they exported rice and now they could bring their dollars back from other countries and suddenly the distribution of solar panels increased significantly.
Mohammad Mujahid said that selling solar panels was not a problem and no experience was necessary, meaning that it was not difficult for you to amortize solar panels from grade A manufacturing companies and sell them in the local market. .
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What factors contributed to the surge in solar panel imports in Pakistan in 2024?
**Interview with Muhammad Mujahid, Executive Director of Innovo Corp**
**Interviewer:** Thank you for joining us today, Muhammad. There’s been a significant influx of solar panels in Pakistan recently. Can you give us some insight into what led to this situation?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** Certainly. The surge in solar panel imports — 13 GW in just the first half of 2024 — was largely driven by a combination of pent-up demand and shifts in market dynamics. In 2022, due to the dollar shortage, Pakistan’s central bank placed restrictions on imports, only allowing essential goods. This created a backlog, and once these restrictions were lifted, numerous distributors rushed to fulfill the demand.
**Interviewer:** You mentioned the situation in 2022 and how it impacted imports. How did these challenges create opportunities for some companies?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** During the foreign exchange crisis, the issuance of letters of credit was severely restricted, which limited imports. However, larger players in the market capitalized on this by stockpiling solar equipment before the restrictions hit. Once we were able to import again, they unleashed a flood of panels in the market. Many companies, even those originally focused on other sectors like rice exporting, recognized the lucrative potential in solar.
**Interviewer:** The price fluctuations seem concerning for those in the solar market. What’s happening with the profit margins for these solar panels?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** Yes, it’s quite drastic. Initially, the direct cost of importing was around $0.15 per watt, but these panels were being sold locally at $0.30 per watt. This brought in high profit margins. However, with the oversupply in 2024, many are now selling at a loss. It’s a stark contrast from the previous year, and I didn’t expect the market to shift so quickly.
**Interviewer:** What are the long-term implications of this oversupply for the solar energy sector in Pakistan?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** While immediate profits have diminished, the long-term potential remains strong. Many investments in solar energy are coming from the commercial and industrial sectors, with firms finding it a straightforward investment. Even if net metering changes, the rise in electricity prices due to various economic factors will keep solar energy attractive for years to come.
**Interviewer:** Given this context, what do you see as the future of solar energy for both investors and consumers in Pakistan?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** It’s a mixed outlook. For investors with an eye on the long term, solar systems still promise good ROI within 18 months to two years. Consumers will benefit too, as solar presents a viable way to hedge against rising electricity costs. However, the market will need to stabilize. I think there’s potential for recovery, especially if demand realigns with supply.
**Interviewer:** Thank you for sharing these insights, Muhammad. It’s clear there are both challenges and opportunities ahead in Pakistan’s solar energy landscape.
**Muhammad Mujahid:** Thank you for having me. It’s a crucial time for solar in Pakistan, and I’m optimistic that with careful planning, it can lead to sustainable growth.