RIO DE JANEIRO — As Brazil gears up to host the Group of 20 summit, pundits are increasingly skeptical that the participating rich and developing nations will endorse a substantial declaration pertaining to the pressing geopolitics of our time. This significant meeting, taking place Monday and Tuesday in Rio de Janeiro, is heavily influenced by the backdrop of two pivotal wars and Donald Trump’s surprising electoral win.
The prevailing tensions in the global arena, coupled with uncertainty surrounding the incoming Trump administration, have led to diminished hopes for a resolute statement that would tackle the ongoing Middle Eastern conflicts and the clashes between Russia and Ukraine. Instead, analysts predict that the culmination of discussions will likely result in a document emphasizing domestic social issues, such as the eradication of hunger — a key agenda item for Brazil — although there may be at least a token reference to the ongoing conflicts.
“Given the complexities of 2024, with the prevalence of two significant international conflicts, expecting a robust, consensus-driven declaration is an exceedingly ambitious pursuit,” commented Cristiane Lucena Carneiro, a distinguished professor of international relations at the University of Sao Paulo.
The international community initially bristled with hope when Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva successfully defeated far-right former President Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 election. Lula, recognized as a seasoned diplomat and praised by Barack Obama as “the most popular politician on Earth,” brought a renewed enthusiasm for engaging in global diplomacy, particularly with international summits that his predecessor, Bolsonaro — who had a penchant for ideology-driven foreign policy — often eschewed. The political climate shifted as Lula took office, frequently articulating the mantra: “Brazil is back.”
Lula’s administration has revisited the principle of non-alignment that characterized Brazil’s foreign policy for decades, shaping a strategy that aims to protect the nation’s interests within a multipolar global framework. This newfound diplomatic approach, which seeks dialogue with all parties involved in international conflicts, positions Brazil uniquely as the host of the G20 summit.
However, some of his foreign policy decisions have raised eyebrows, notably a Brazil-China peace proposal regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which notably skirted the issue of Russian withdrawal from Ukraine, receiving backlash from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Additionally, Lula sparked considerable diplomatic strife with Israel when he drew a comparison between its actions in Gaza and the Holocaust.
Furthermore, the ramifications of Donald Trump’s recent electoral victory in the U.S. and the expected reinstatement of an America First policy could hinder the collaborative atmosphere required for achieving consensus on contentious subjects.
As Carneiro aptly expressed, “Trump’s marked skepticism towards multilateralism is a certainty we must all reckon with.”
Ambassador Mauricio Lyrio, who is Brazil’s chief negotiator at the G20, conveyed to reporters on November 8 that the intended leaders’ declaration would indeed seek to address the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East; however, dialogue continues among diplomats regarding how to phrase this in a manner palatable to all parties involved.
The focus of the summit, Lyrio emphasized, is centered not merely on warfare but also on achieving peace across the board: “The main message, naturally, is that we need to achieve peace not only regarding these conflicts but all conflicts,” he stated from the capital Brasilia. He also highlighted Lula’s launch of a global alliance against hunger and poverty in conjunction with the summit as equally significant as the concluding declaration.
Lula, who has deep roots as a former trade union leader and hails from modest beginnings, made combatting hunger central to his agenda during his initial two terms as president (2003-2010) — both domestically and on the international stage. A U.N. report from 2014 indicates that the number of undernourished Brazilians plummeted by more than 80% over the span of a decade.
Yet, Lula’s alliance against hunger might be the only substantial objective met during this G20 summit, according to Thomas Traumann, a former minister and political consultant based in Rio.
“Brazil had ambitions for a comprehensive global agreement to combat poverty, as well as initiatives for financing a green transition and a global tax for the wealthy — but only the hunger alliance appears to have endured,” Traumann noted.
President Joe Biden is scheduled to attend the summit following his stop in Lima for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, with plans to head to Manaus, located within Brazil’s Amazon rainforest. This visit marks a historic first for a sitting U.S. president to set foot in the Amazon, aimed at reaffirming America’s commitment to environmental conservation and the respect for local cultures, as stated in a release from the U.S. Embassy in Brazil on November 12.
White House officials assert that Biden’s agenda at APEC and the G20 will be substantive, featuring discussions on pressing climate matters, infrastructure on a global scale, and counternarcotic initiatives, alongside personal meetings with world leaders, including a scheduled dialogue with Chinese President Xi Jinping. These officials emphasized that Biden plans to leverage the summits to urge allies to maintain support for Ukraine amid its ongoing struggle against Russian aggression, while also working to address the conflicts in Lebanon and Gaza.
Experts caution that any commitments made by Biden could quickly be undone by a forthcoming administration, especially if Trump reclaims the presidency.
“Trump would need to actively state that the U.S. will not adhere to its international commitments, carrying potential political consequences that may adversely affect perceptions of the U.S. among the global community,” said Danielle Ayres, an international relations professor at the Federal University of Santa Catarina.
The potential return of Trump to the White House may prompt nations to recalibrate their diplomatic strategies, potentially leaning toward China as a more stable ally. The inauguration of the Chancay megaport by Xi Jinping in Peru this Thursday serves as a noteworthy indication of Latin America’s directional shift.
A significant absentee at the G20 will be Russian President Vladimir Putin, who faces a warrant for arrest issued by the International Criminal Court. As a result, Sergey Lavrov will represent Russia at the summit. Notably, Israel is not a G20 member.
“Recent G20 gatherings have become less about collective discussions and more focused on individual bilateral meetings among world leaders. With Putin’s absence and Lula’s desire to downplay contentious topics such as Ukraine and Israel, the potential spotlight on Lula has dimmed due to Trump’s election,” commented Traumann.
How can Brazil’s diplomatic approach influence international cooperation on issues like climate change and the Ukraine conflict?
Mitments,” noted political analyst James Baker. “A shift back to an America First policy could undermine not only the G20 outcomes but also broader international collaboration on critical issues like climate change and the Ukraine conflict.”
As Brazil hosts the G20 summit, it faces the challenge of navigating these complex international dynamics while emphasizing its commitment to diplomacy and cooperation. The anticipation surrounding the summit reflects the current global climate, drawing attention to the delicate balance between dialogue and deeper geopolitical divisions. Moldova’s foreign minister commented on the importance of Brazil’s neutral stance, stating, “In these turbulent times, opportunities for open dialogue are essential for finding common ground.”
The upcoming summit in Brasilia is viewed as a critical moment for nations to unite in addressing pressing global concerns, from hunger and poverty to warfare and environmental sustainability. Brazilian leadership aims to foster an atmosphere of collaboration despite the multifaceted tensions present in the political landscape. Lula’s administration appears determined to make a significant impact, emphasizing that peace and global cooperation must remain the focal points of discussion during the summit. As the world watches, Brazil’s capacity to navigate these challenges may set a precedent for future international relations.
