As Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House looms, a seismic shift in federal policy is on the horizon, particularly regarding climate change and environmental safeguards. The stakes are high, but California possesses significant resources to resist this impending environmental degradation.
During Trump’s first term, he dramatically rolled back over 100 environmental regulations, affecting clean air, water integrity, management of toxic substances, and wildlife preservation. He dismissed global warming as a hoax, withdrew from the Paris climate agreement, diminished national monuments, and appointed EPA leaders who prioritized polluters’ interests over public health.
Many experts have designated Trump’s re-election as a final “nail in the coffin” for global efforts aimed at restricting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Moreover, he has openly invited oil industry leaders to finance his campaign in exchange for dismantling key environmental regulations.
Given the Republican majorities in both the House and Senate, combined with the conservative Supreme Court’s hostility towards environmental protections, the onus of safeguarding these vital issues will shift to state and local governments.
In light of this, California Governor Gavin Newsom is proactively addressing the challenge. He has summoned a special session of the Legislature to prepare California’s legal strategies against the anticipated rollback of environmental policies. Newsom, alongside Attorney General Rob Bonta and other key state leaders, aims to establish a robust defense against these aggressive actions, drawing from the lessons learned eight years prior. The previous state Attorney General, Xavier Becerra, launched over 100 lawsuits against the initial Trump administration, particularly on environmental grounds, achieving a favorable outcome in more cases than he lost.
California officials face a dual challenge; they cannot merely restrict their actions to a defensive posture. Utilizing the state’s substantial influence and resources, they must initiate proactive measures that promote ecological sustainability, attempting to mitigate the expected fallout from Trump’s policies.
As Trump’s team is reportedly set to overturn President Biden’s electric vehicle tax credit among other significant reversals, California stands ready to solidify its status as a leader in climate action. A retreat from federal climate policies would not only weaken the U.S.’s competitive edge but also risk ceding clean energy technology leadership to countries like China and various European nations. The resilience of California’s economy, which ranks as the fifth-largest globally, positions it as an attractive partner for innovation and investment amid the federal government’s erratic climate stance. In 2019, several automakers, including Ford and Honda, evaded Trump’s attempts to relax emissions standards by aligning with California, emphasizing their need for “regulatory certainty.”
“It wasn’t that they hated Trump,” observed Mary Nichols, who served as chair of the California Air Resources Board at that time. “They wanted relief, but they preferred to engage with those focused on scientific evidence, not political ideology.”
The climate and energy framework has undergone a substantial transformation over the past eight years, placing Trump’s agenda in stark contrast with current economic realities.
Electric vehicle sales are flourishing globally, with projections indicating that one in five new vehicles sold this year will be battery-powered. The U.S. is expected to witness 1.7 million electric vehicles sold, which is over eight times more than during the early days of Trump’s first term. Presently, over 40% of the nation’s electricity is generated from carbon-free sources, a marked increase from 2016’s figures.
The Inflation Reduction Act, a pivotal climate initiative signed by Biden, has catalyzed a surge in electric vehicle manufacturing, battery production, and other clean energy technologies that have greatly benefited various red states and districts. While Trump has vowed to “rescind all unspent funds” under this law, an unusual coalition of 18 House Republicans has urged Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) against repealing its clean energy tax credits, noting the economic benefits, including job creation, innovation, and investment across numerous Republican-controlled districts.
Meanwhile, Trump may also confront pressure to uphold commitments regarding greenhouse gas pollution reductions from unexpected sources. The CEO of Exxon Mobil has advised him against withdrawal from the Paris agreement, emphasizing the global necessity for a system to regulate emissions.
The self-inflicted obstacles Trump will face include his choice of a new EPA head: former Representative Lee Zeldin from New York, whose qualifications appear centered on allegiance rather than environmental expertise. Zeldin’s inexperience in this field could hinder efforts to dismantle established regulations, which typically require extensive knowledge, legal detail, and time.
Trump’s agenda to eliminate career civil servants and replace them with loyal allies may further compromise his ability to enact regulatory rollbacks, according to UCLA environmental law professor Ann Carlson. “The reality is you can’t get anything done without efficient civil servants,” she pointed out.
However, Trump possesses the potential to inflict significant harm by targeting states that are actively confronting climate change. New initiatives to revoke California’s waivers for more stringent vehicle emissions standards are likely, especially as several remains unapproved by Biden’s EPA. Threats to withhold federal disaster assistance during California’s wildfire crises have already been issued by Trump, mirroring past actions, while the Project 2025 playbook for his second term outlines plans to dismantle the National Weather Service.
To protect themselves, California will need to innovate and implement policies capable of standing independently. This entails the enforcement of robust measures by state regulators and entities such as the Public Utilities Commission and the Air Resources Board, alongside local authorities like the South Coast Air Quality Management District, which has historically delayed strict regulations targeting major polluters, including the critical ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach.
Local leaders like Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass must also enhance their efforts. To date, her engagement with the Port of L.A. has not led to significant improvements in reducing harmful diesel emissions.
The threat of losing hard-won climate progress is real, especially at a time when such setbacks could prove catastrophic. It is imperative for both state and local leaders to take decisive action to demonstrate that, regardless of a second Trump administration, a commitment to environmentally responsible policymaking remains attainable with concerted effort.
How can California balance legal resistance with innovative environmental policies in response to federal rollbacks?
**Interview with Dr. Emily Carter, Environmental Policy Expert and Professor at Stanford University**
**Editor**: Thank you for joining us today, Dr. Carter. As Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House is anticipated, there’s a strong possibility of significant rollbacks in climate and environmental policies. How do you see this impacting states like California?
**Dr. Carter**: Thank you for having me. Given the history of Trump’s previous term, it’s quite clear that a lot of federal environmental regulations are at risk. California, however, possesses a unique position. With its robust economy and proactive leadership, it has the resources and influence needed to push back against these potential rollbacks. Governor Newsom’s proactive strategies, including the recent special legislative session, indicate a strong commitment to environmental safeguards.
**Editor**: What specific strategies do you think California should adopt to fortify its environmental protections?
**Dr. Carter**: California needs to employ a two-pronged strategy. First, defensive legal maneuvers will be crucial, as seen in the earlier lawsuits led by Attorney General Becerra. Second, California must also initiate aggressive policies that not only resist federal changes but also promote ecological sustainability—essentially becoming a beacon for clean energy innovation. This proactive approach can help mitigate the anticipated fallout from any federal decisions.
**Editor**: Many experts claim Trump’s re-election could be detrimental to global climate agreements. What implications would that have on California’s role in leading climate initiatives?
**Dr. Carter**: If this scenario unfolds, California could assume a leadership role internationally. While Trump’s administration may retreat from global commitments like the Paris Agreement, California can set its own ambitious benchmarks and continue collaborating with other nations and states. This will not only keep the state at the forefront of the clean energy movement but also attract investments and partnerships that align with its climate goals.
**Editor**: As you mentioned earlier, California has a history of litigation to protect environmental standards. Do you believe this approach will suffice against a more aggressive federal stance?
**Dr. Carter**: Litigation has been effective in the past, but it may not be enough on its own. California will need to creatively leverage its status as the fifth-largest economy in the world to not only defend but innovate. This means creating regulatory frameworks and incentives that promote clean technologies and sustainable practices. Businesses and consumers alike are looking for such direction, which can also help counteract any federal changes.
**Editor**: given the rising global electric vehicle market, how vital is it for California to maintain its current policies in this sector amidst Trump’s possible shifts?
**Dr. Carter**: It’s crucial. The electric vehicle market is experiencing exponential growth, and California has effectively positioned itself as a leader in this area. Maintaining strong standards and incentives, such as those introduced under the Inflation Reduction Act, is essential not only for environmental performance but also for ensuring California remains competitive. If we were to lose this edge, we risk falling behind other nations, particularly in the burgeoning clean energy technology sector.
**Editor**: Thank you, Dr. Carter, for your insights. It’s clear that California’s proactive measures will be pivotal in navigating the uncertainties that lie ahead.
**Dr. Carter**: Thank you for having me. It’s important that we all stay engaged and informed on these crucial issues as they develop.