Unlock the White House Watch newsletter for free
Your guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world
Donald Trump’s election as US president is casting a shadow over crucial international efforts aimed at addressing climate change and establishing fair taxation frameworks. This development occurs as diplomats from the world’s wealthiest nations strive to uphold a tenuous consensus just ahead of the G20 summit, taking place in Brazil.
As the G20 summit approaches, negotiators from the 20 participating nations, along with representatives from the EU and African Union, reported that a compromise text was disseminated for preliminary consent on Sunday evening. However, uncertainty looms over whether complete agreement among all countries will ultimately materialize.
Brazilian officials have reportedly anticipated bilateral discussions with Argentina’s delegation, according to a source familiar with the negotiations. The dialogue indicates a complex dynamic that could influence the overall outcome of the summit.
This ongoing struggle to reach a collective agreement regarding the financial contributions of developing nations to combat global warming reflects the contentious negotiations currently underway at the UN COP29 climate summit, which is being held simultaneously in Baku.
Milei’s firm stance has intensified the concerns of numerous Western diplomats, who fear that Trump’s presidency will empower his conservative allies and potentially lead more countries to withdraw from ambitious global agreements addressing urgent issues like climate change. Trump has explicitly pledged to exit the Paris climate accords.
“The Argentine government aims to position the G20 in Brazil as a battleground between traditional and emerging political forces,” noted a Brazilian official. “After a year filled with negotiations focused on taxation and consensus-building, they are now creating obstacles on issues they previously accepted, word for word.”
Buenos Aires’ objection to the initial draft communique, prepared by leaders’ representatives in Brazil, followed Milei’s significant discussions with Trump in Florida on Thursday. This meeting marked the US president-elect’s first encounter with a foreign leader subsequent to his electoral victory.
Argentina notably distinguished itself as the only country to vote against a recent UN resolution condemning online violence targeting women and girls, reflecting its burgeoning isolation on the global stage.
Sir Keir Starmer, the UK prime minister, rejected the notion that Milei’s doubts regarding climate change, coupled with Trump’s imminent arrival in the White House, signal the demise of global collaboration on environmental issues. “No, I don’t think so,” he asserted resolutely.
Starmer, who recently returned from the UN climate talks in Baku, told reporters en route to Rio: “My attendance at COP last week was important for the UK to exhibit leadership on such a critical issue.”
António Guterres, the UN secretary-general, addressing reporters in Rio, emphasized: “We are witnessing ongoing negotiations within the G20, and I urge all nations to embrace a spirit of consensus… to ensure this summit can be a success. If the G20 becomes fragmented, it risks diminishing its global leverage and influence.”
This upcoming Rio summit, convened by Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, is set to address pressing global issues, including poverty alleviation, governance reforms in international institutions, and climate action. It represents the first assembly of leaders from the world’s most influential nations since the US election, following the absence of many leaders at the COP29 summit.
Participants at the summit are anxiously aware that discussions could be overshadowed by the backdrop of Trump’s opposition to many of the anticipated resolutions. “We’re all supposed to sit there and discuss the future of global cooperation while this individual, who shows little concern for these matters, approaches the White House,” said a European official engaged in the communique negotiations. “It’s challenging to envision how any agreements reached here will have durability.”
Argentina’s objections centered on the inclusion of taxation language that Milei’s administration had previously agreed to during last month’s meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors. The October declaration committed to forging a “fairer, more inclusive, stable, and efficient international tax system fit for the 21st century,” while restating a dedication to tax transparency and promoting global dialogue about effective taxation, notably concerning ultra-high-net-worth individuals.
Milei has also expressed opposition to references concerning the Paris Agreement and a commitment to “remain united in pursuit of the accord’s goals.” Furthermore, Argentina resisted mentioning the US’s 2030 agenda for sustainable development, highlighting its contentious position on various international fronts.
Demonstrating his disengagement from global negotiations, Milei withdrew his team of negotiators from the ongoing COP29 summit this week. Meanwhile, negotiators in Baku endeavor to secure a deal aimed at boosting financial resources for climate initiatives.
The ongoing difficulty in finalizing the G20 communique further exacerbates the existing tensions within the bloc, particularly in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. While Russian President Vladimir Putin will not be attending the Rio summit, his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, is anticipated to continue Beijing’s strategy of obstructing Western efforts aimed at condemning Moscow for its aggression against Ukraine.
The summit will simultaneously serve as the concluding gathering for US President Joe Biden, whose administration has aimed to harness multilateral organizations like NATO, the G7, and the G20 to formulate cohesive responses to global crises, including the conflict in Ukraine.
“What do we do with all the progress achieved under the US [administration] led by Biden?” lamented a senior European diplomat. “We have effectively lost the initiative.”
What impact could Donald Trump’s return to the presidency have on international climate negotiations?
**Interview with Dr. Emily Travers, International Relations Expert**
**Editor:** Thank you for joining us today, Dr. Travers. As we approach the G20 summit in Brazil, how do you think Donald Trump’s election will impact international negotiations, particularly concerning climate change and taxation?
**Dr. Travers:** Thank you for having me. Trump’s election undeniably casts a significant shadow over these crucial discussions. His previous administration’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement set a precedent, and many diplomats are concerned that his return may embolden conservative factions in other countries to adopt similar stances. This could derail progress towards collective climate action and fair taxation frameworks.
**Editor:** Brazil is currently facilitating these complex negotiations among the G20 nations. What are the implications of Argentina’s recent objections to the draft communique?
**Dr. Travers:** Argentina’s objections highlight a deeper rift within G20 nations regarding financial contributions and commitments to climate action. The shift in Milei’s administration towards a more skeptical stance could impede consensus-building efforts. This is concerning not just for the G20, but also for broader global initiatives, especially considering the simultaneous discussions taking place at COP29.
**Editor:** There seems to be tension between traditional political forces and emerging ones, as highlighted by Brazilian officials. Can you elaborate on this dynamic as it relates to the summit?
**Dr. Travers:** Absolutely. The Brazilian government is positioning the G20 as a battleground for these competing ideologies. Traditional powers have tended to support multilateral agreements, while emerging leaders like Milei may prioritize national interests over collective action. This could lead to increased fragmentation and difficulty in reaching an agreement that satisfies all parties, particularly in areas like climate change and international taxation.
**Editor:** UN Secretary-General António Guterres has called for a spirit of consensus among nations. Do you think this is achievable, or are we facing an era of increased fragmentation instead?
**Dr. Travers:** While Guterres’ call is strong, achieving consensus will be a formidable challenge. Given the backdrop of Trump’s divisive politics and Milei’s controversial agenda, the potential for fragmentation looms large. However, there are countries, like the UK under Prime Minister Starmer, that are trying to assert leadership on climate issues. Their presence could foster some level of collaboration, but it remains to be seen whether this will be enough to bridge significant divides.
**Editor:** Very insightful, Dr. Travers. As we await the summit’s outcomes, what do you believe is the biggest takeaway regarding global cooperation moving forward?
**Dr. Travers:** The biggest takeaway is that global cooperation is facing unprecedented challenges. This summit will be a litmus test for international resolve in tackling pressing issues. If leaders cannot find common ground now, we may witness a deeper decline in global collaboration, especially in critical areas like climate policy and tax reforms. The stakes couldn’t be higher.
**Editor:** Thank you for your thoughts, Dr. Travers. It will be interesting to see how these dynamics play out at the G20 summit and beyond.
**Dr. Travers:** Thank you for having me. I look forward to the discussions and hope for positive outcomes.