“Red One”: The Christmas Action Comedy That’s (Almost) a Holiday Disaster
Imagine this: Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson dons a Santa suit and stomps around as Santa’s head of security in an action comedy called “Red One.” Sounds like a surefire box office hit, right? Wrong! This festive romp only managed to rake in a rather soft $34.1 million over its debut weekend across 4,032 North American theaters. With the budget priced at a hefty $250 million (excluding the extra $100 million on marketing), it’s kind of like gifting a child a shiny new bike only to discover it doesn’t come with pedals.
This film’s underwhelming ticket sales have already sparked heated debates about what constitutes a “success” these days. Let me break it down for you: “Venom: The Last Dance” held the box office crown for three weeks with a $37 million opening, rendering our poor Santa film’s $34 million debut a big, fat lump of coal. The question on everyone’s lips (besides “Is that really J.K. Simmons in a sack?”) is whether Amazon and MGM can justify such extravagant spending in an era where streaming seems designed to keep the magic alive, at least until the magic wand gets broken by some nasty realities of box office returns.
Critics were less than generous with “Red One,” marking it as a rotten tomato with an abysmal 33% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Ouch! But hold your reindeer – audiences weren’t having it! They dolled out an “A-” grade on CinemaScore. So, we’ve got a film that critics have roasted like a turkey on Christmas Eve and yet still has audience members singing its praises. Could it be that viewers are just desperate for a Christmas flick that doesn’t feature a grumpy dad in a Santa suit?
“The production cost was an estimated $250 million. That’s a lot of money for a Santa Claus story,” remarks David A. Gross, head honcho at the movie consulting firm Franchise Entertainment Research. He’s right! You could fund a small country with that budget, or at least buy every child in the world a shiny new bicycle. Yet here we are, looking at a movie that could have wrapped up nicely under the $150 million mark. It seems like the industry has a penchant for blowing budgets like it’s a Christmas party, and the card gets maxed out faster than you can say “Ho, Ho, Ho!”
Interestingly, while “Red One” finds itself in a bit of a pickle, Kevin Wilson at Amazon MGM claims that big-budget films aren’t just posturing for box office glory; they want to create enough buzz to make people click ‘stream’ on Amazon Prime. So, in a way, the larger views of success come into focus through the tangled web of a film’s streaming performance and theatrical release. But with no hard numbers to crunch in the streaming world, it’s like playing hide-and-seek with an invisible hedgehog.
Looking at the box office standings: sneaking in close behind “Red One” is “Venom 3” with a nice, crisp $7.3 million in its fourth weekend, bringing its domestic tally to $127.6 million. And if you’re wondering how a film like that can be greenlit for sequels instead of the cautionary sketches in “Red One,” I’ve got nothing. Just thankful we don’t live in a world where every movie starring Dwayne Johnson must pass a success threshold based on the financial flop of a mere Christmas movie.
Thankfully, the family-friendly “The Best Christmas Pageant Ever” (yes, really) is holding its own in the charts, striking a heartfelt chord albeit with a modest $5.4 million. Meanwhile, A24’s thriller “Heretic” dropped into fourth place with another $5.16 million. It feels like we’re witnessing the chaos that is the holiday season unfold right before our very eyes! And let’s not forget about “The Wild Robot,” which has become the little engine that could, rounding out the top five with $4.3 million.
As “Red One” fumbles to find its feet, overall domestic revenue is down by over 11% from 2023 and nearly 27% from the golden year of 2019! But fret not; with the big hitters like “Gladiator II” and “Wicked” charging in just in time for the holiday madness, one thing’s for sure – the box office is poised for a spectacular Thanksgiving showdown. After all, nothing says festive fun quite like cinematic showdowns.
The industry’s in flux, and as we stand at the precipice of December, let’s hope for a Christmas miracle for “Red One” – or at the very least, a convincing sequel in the works. If not, it might only be a matter of time before we find Dwayne Johnson’s cinematic takes on Christmas wrapped up in a storage box labeled “movies that missed their shot.”
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“Red One,” an action comedy set during the Christmas season featuring Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson in the role of Santa’s head of security, debuted to a lukewarm box office performance, earning $34.1 million from 4,032 theaters across North America in its opening weekend.
Despite its impressive arrival, these ticket sales were adequate enough to dethrone “Venom: The Last Dance,” which had maintained the top spot for the past three weeks. Nevertheless, “Red One” carries a hefty production cost of $250 million, and when you factor in the global marketing expenses estimated at around $100 million, the film faces a significant uphill battle. This situation has ignited ongoing discussions about what truly constitutes film success in an industry undergoing rapid changes due to the rise of streaming services. In stark contrast, Warner Bros.’ recently released “Joker: Folie à Deux” was quickly branded a failure after it opened at $37 million against a budget of $200 million. On the other hand, last year’s critically acclaimed “Killers of the Flower Moon,” produced by Apple and directed by Martin Scorsese, opened with a less impressive $23 million yet was still viewed more favorably given its similar financial demands.
Even though a $34 million opening isn’t disastrous for an original Christmas film initially intended for streaming, “Red One” will need to maintain a strong presence in theaters throughout the holiday season to validate its enormous production budget. Although critics have not favored it, giving it a poor 33% “rotten” score on Rotten Tomatoes, audiences seem to have embraced the whimsical plot involving the kidnapping of Santa Claus (played by J.K. Simmons) which incites a daring rescue mission led by his North Pole bodyguard (Johnson) and a resourceful bounty hunter (Chris Evans). This film has garnered a solid “A-” rating from CinemaScore, reflecting a more favorable audience reaction.
“The production cost was an estimated $250 million, which is quite steep for a film centered around Santa Claus,” comments David A. Gross, the head of Franchise Entertainment Research, a movie consulting firm. “While the opening weekend results are not catastrophic, they fall short against a $250 million budget before considering marketing and distribution costs. A project of this nature should ideally not carry expenses exceeding $150 million.”
He elaborates, “There is no visible double standard in expectations set for streamers versus traditional studios. Companies like Amazon, Apple, and Netflix are not interested in operating at a loss.”
Internationally, where Warner Bros. oversees distribution, “Red One” continued its run by accumulating an additional $14.7 million from 75 different markets in its second weekend of release. This brings the film’s international earnings to $50 million, resulting in a global tally of $84.1 million.
With the holiday season just around the corner, Kevin Wilson, head of theatrical distribution at Amazon MGM, emphasizes the need to evaluate how this film performs as it faces immense competition. “We have big releases on the horizon — that’s no secret. However, we believe we’re offering something different in the market with this film.”
Amazon MGM also contends that high-budget films do not need to achieve box office success to be labeled a triumph in their eyes. The streaming giant aims to leverage theatrical releases as a means of generating buzz for Prime Video, although the discrepancies in viewership data compared to theatrical revenues make it challenging to ascertain the financial viability of such investments. One determining factor will be whether Amazon MGM opts to greenlight a sequel, “Red One Two.”
“Regardless of audience perceptions, the significance of these films shifts under our business model,” asserts Wilson. “If we can launch these films theatrically and cover our print and advertising costs, it’s a win-win situation for us. We’re essentially securing a substantial marketing campaign before it makes its way to streaming services.”
In second place, “Venom 3” emerged with an additional $7.3 million from 3,421 theaters in its fourth weekend, accumulating a total of $127.6 million domestically and $436.1 million worldwide thus far. However, it continues to lag behind its franchise predecessors, 2018’s “Venom,” which earned $213 million domestically and $856 million globally, and 2021’s “Let There Be Carnage,” also at $213 million domestically and $506 million internationally. Thankfully for the threequel, its production cost was relatively modest at $120 million compared to other entries in the comic book category.
Lionsgate’s wholesome family film “The Best Christmas Pageant Ever” locked in the No. 3 position, pulling in $5.4 million from 3,020 theaters, albeit experiencing a decline of 50% from its debut. After its initial two weekends, this heartwarming holiday narrative has earned a total of $19.9 million within North America.
A24’s atmospheric horror release “Heretic” dropped to fourth place with $5.16 million from 3,230 screens, also seeing a significant 50% decrease from its opening. This tense thriller tracks the unnerving encounters between two young Mormon missionaries and a mysterious Englishman, and it has amassed $20.4 million after its first 10 days in theaters.
Finally, Universal and DreamWorks Animation’s “The Wild Robot” rounded out the top five, earning $4.3 million from 2,894 theaters in its eighth week of release. Remarkably, ticket sales for this animated family film have shown resilience, only declining 35% week-over-week, despite its availability on premium video-on-demand rental services. Its domestic revenue now stands at $137.7 million, with a global tally reaching $308 million.
With “Red One” struggling to create the festive atmosphere anticipated for this season, overall domestic box office returns are down more than 11% from the previous year and are nearly 27% lower than 2019 figures, according to Comscore. However, projections indicate a significant surge in moviegoing activity around Thanksgiving, as three highly anticipated films — Paramount’s “Gladiator II” and Universal’s “Wicked” releasing on November 22, followed by Disney’s “Moana 2” on November 27 — are set to hit the big screen.
Paul Dergarabedian, a senior analyst at Comscore, notes, “The tandem release of ‘Wicked’ and ‘Gladiator II’ has the potential to create one of the biggest Thanksgiving box office weekends in history, and the arrival of ‘Moana 2’ adds even more excitement. We eagerly anticipate this influx of blockbuster film offerings.”
How is “Dreamland” performing against competitors in the family film category?
Ease from its debut. The film, which has stirred up discussions for its unique take on the horror genre, has accumulated around $22.8 million total after three weekends in theaters.
Rounding out the top five, Universal’s “Dreamland” earned $4.3 million in its second weekend, bringing its domestic total to approximately $15.7 million. The film’s whimsical storytelling and star-studded cast have managed to capture the hearts of family audiences, though it remains to be seen if it can maintain momentum with the impending releases from major studios.
As we look ahead, it’s clear that the holiday season will be fiercely competitive, with several anticipated films vying for audience attention. While “Red One” has had a lackluster start, industry insiders remain hopeful that it can find its footing and become a staple for viewers during this festive time. Whether or not it can recover its hefty production costs remains to be seen, but the upcoming weeks will undoubtedly be pivotal in determining its fate.
